Arbitrage Question

[garyking]

Well done Crusherr!!!!

[ace7550]

You can still make easily 100k a year even starting with 10k. Sign up bonuses are nice but reloads are just as good. Just have to know what you're doing and be willing to only bet big markets and dabble in casino games. It also helps I probably rake tens of thousands of dollars in poker on several of the sites as well

Is that just cuz you're a whiz at poker or do you have a bonus angle with poker?

[garyking]

I did poker bonuses for a while, but you have to be a pretty good poker player as well. Unless you are playing at a high stakes level the bonuses take a long time to clear. It's added value if you are a good player, but otherwise not worth it in my view

[milwaukee mike]

You can still make easily 100k a year even starting with 10k. Sign up bonuses are nice but reloads are just as good. Just have to know what you're doing and be willing to only bet big markets and dabble in casino games. It also helps I probably rake tens of thousands of dollars in poker on several of the sites as well

only the best of the best, staring at a screen all day, will even make 50k/year

i don't doubt that you're making 100k/year but i doubt that even 1% of the gamblers out there could do that

[Crusherrr]

Is that just cuz you're a whiz at poker or do you have a bonus angle with poker?

I played high stakes LHE underage for years and played "professionally" from 2008 to 2012. I can't compete in high stakes games online now with the GTO wizards using their solvers and stuff but I still battle in the 200nl-600nl streets regularly. Most sites I'm on are ones that actually protect players from real time assistance or private/club sites and apps. But I also play a fair bit on the highly rated books that offer poker as well.

I don't take poker bonuses. Just play. The years of pulling in $100k from rakeback being Supernova Elite are no longer.

You can make a fortune on sites like Nitrogen with their freerolls if you play enough. It's not rakeback in traditional sense but if you perform well in the daily freerolls they pay out quite a bit given the rake requirements needed. Now that bitcoin is sky-high you have $10/$20NL games running with players that probably can't even beat a 1/2 game.

[Sawyer]

only the best of the best, staring at a screen all day, will even make 50k/yeari don't doubt that you're making 100k/year but i doubt that even 1% of the gamblers out there could do that

Gamblers no, Arbers&Bonus Hunters yes. 100k/year is very achievable for arbers&bonus abusers.
It's hard to make money with straight betting/handicapping. In my opinion, people who make profit over long haul should be less then %0.01.

[ace7550]

I played high stakes LHE underage for years and played "professionally" from 2008 to 2012. I can't compete in high stakes games online now with the GTO wizards using their solvers and stuff but I still battle in the 200nl-600nl streets regularly. Most sites I'm on are ones that actually protect players from real time assistance or private/club sites and apps. But I also play a fair bit on the highly rated books that offer poker as well.

I don't take poker bonuses. Just play. The years of pulling in $100k from rakeback being Supernova Elite are no longer.

You can make a fortune on sites like Nitrogen with their freerolls if you play enough. It's not rakeback in traditional sense but if you perform well in the daily freerolls they pay out quite a bit given the rake requirements needed. Now that bitcoin is sky-high you have $10/$20NL games running with players that probably can't even beat a 1/2 game.

That's badass Crusher. Remind me not to sit down at a poker table with you

[ace7550]

Gamblers no, Arbers&Bonus Hunters yes. 100k/year is very achievable for arbers&bonus abusers.
It's hard to make money with straight betting/handicapping. In my opinion, people who make profit over long haul should be less then %0.01.

Do you still do any arbing Sawyer? When you did/do arb do you typically bet both sides of it or just the soft side?

[jazzmonkey]

If you are very good at arbing you can make a fortune. It is mind crushingly dull though.

Answering ace7550, arbing means betting both sides, just betting the soft side is value betting. A half way house of tilting the arb towards the soft side can satisfy both.

[Sawyer]

Do you still do any arbing Sawyer? When you did/do arb do you typically bet both sides of it or just the soft side?

I switched to value betting (live) more recently. Arbing is approximately only %20-25 of my betting action at the moment.

[Okocha]

arbing is tougher these days,not only due to the speed books react vs market makers
general feeling amonsgt the sharps i talk with is that landscape is getting less secure year by year

[king7811]

As far as arbitrage goes I tried to do it a few times; I find it is useful to use a platform where w have access to odds from various bookmakers in one place like vip-ibc or sportsmarket. I use vip-ibc and they have been serving me well enough so far and I still havent been limited yet.

But I have to say that arbitrage is not really for me, I understand that it is a good way to make money if you have the patience, but I cant see myself doing it again and again and again…

[bleedblue]

Things were much easier in the past..

There were books who set same total line for 1st Half and 2nd Half in NBA and NCAA. (1st Half Total was 1/2 of the game total)

There were books who set same odds for underdog to win 1st Quarter and the whole game. Can you imagine the value on underdog to win 1st quarter? If Miami ML is +300. Well, Miami to win 1st Quarter is +300 as well.

There were books who offer -110/-110 for odds/even in baseball.

There were books who offer -115/-115 for odds/even in hockey and yes, OT is included.

There were books who favor the home team in baseball for ''Which team will score first?'' Bet. Probably their oddsmaker doesn't know visitor team bats first and they think home team has home field advantage. Oh my god.


I miss those old (and gold) days..

Haha. This reminds me of the days of the “team to record first HIT” prop. Could blindly bet every away team for massive edges. Basically how I got started in this business.

[milwaukee mike]

I switched to value betting (live) more recently. Arbing is approximately only %20-25 of my betting action at the moment.

how can you get enough action down? the places i'm not booted have me at small limits with a ridiculous timer, i think i could attempt to get in college hoops bets for an entire game and only be able to at commercial breaks

[milwaukee mike]

Haha. This reminds me of the days of the “team to record first HIT” prop. Could blindly bet every away team for massive edges. Basically how I got started in this business.

my favorite was nba team to score first... even a few years ago books would blindly open it according to the moneyline instead of based on tip advantage... brooklyn sucked and was an underdog pretty much every time, even though they won something like 26 in a row with brook lopez

not easy finding a bet that is always an underdog and wins 26 in a row

[Sawyer]

my favorite was nba team to score first... even a few years ago books would blindly open it according to the moneyline instead of based on tip advantage... brooklyn sucked and was an underdog pretty much every time, even though they won something like 26 in a row with brook lopez

not easy finding a bet that is always an underdog and wins 26 in a row

Good one

[ace7550]

I'm jealous of you guys that have been doing this 15-20 years. There was so much free money to be had back then!

[Stumpage]

I'm jealous of you guys that have been doing this 15-20 years. There was so much free money to be had back then!

I actually stopped working for 4 1/2 years to basically Arb full-time. I know of at least 3 guys who were SBR regulars at the time who did likewise. And we only caught the last part of the Golden Age circa 2006-2010...

[ace7550]

NCAAB
Bovada, North Dakota +165
Youwager, South Dakota -160

[ace7550]

NCAAB
Bovada, North Dakota +165
Youwager, South Dakota -160

Still there. Bovada likes to give away free money from time to time.

[cristianbet]

That was the only way I made profits back in the days

[Tim_L]

Answering ace7550, arbing means betting both sides, just betting the soft side is value betting. A half way house of tilting the arb towards the soft side can satisfy both.

You're still paying the juice either way.In fact, assuming that you're arbing soft books against highly liquid fast moving markets, weighting the stakes towards the soft books may cost you more in juice, since they have higher margins than the sharps.

[deeppckts]

You're still paying the juice either way.In fact, assuming that you're arbing soft books against highly liquid fast moving markets, weighting the stakes towards the soft books may cost you more in juice, since they have higher margins than the sharps.

Absolutely false. You maximize your expected bankroll growth by only betting the soft side. If one book has a coinflip as heads +120, tails -160 and the other sharp book has it -110/-110, who cares that the soft book has more juice? In fact you're making a mistake by betting tails at the sharp book.

[garyking]

Absolutely false. You maximize your expected bankroll growth by only betting the soft side. If one book has a coinflip as heads +120, tails -160 and the other sharp book has it -110/-110, who cares that the soft book has more juice? In fact you're making a mistake by betting tails at the sharp book.

This is true, however assumes a large bankroll, or only betting a certain percentage of a smaller bankroll. You don't want to put yourself in a position that a run of bad luck breaks the bankroll. How do you identify the soft lines? By following certain books over a period of time? Or by identifying that many books have the same spread and there is one outlier?

[ace7550]

This is true, however assumes a large bankroll, or only betting a certain percentage of a smaller bankroll. You don't want to put yourself in a position that a run of bad luck breaks the bankroll. How do you identify the soft lines? By following certain books over a period of time? Or by identifying that many books have the same spread and there is one outlier?

I identify it just as you described. Typically there is one book with a line that's a little off and the rest of the books have the same line or very close. The outlier is the soft line.
Also, as you said, if you only bet the soft line you better have a big bank roll. If you hedge it you make less but there is no risk management to worry about.

[garyking]

I identify it just as you described. Typically there is one book with a line that's a little off and the rest of the books have the same line or very close. The outlier is the soft line.
Also, as you said, if you only bet the soft line you better have a big bank roll. If you hedge it you make less but there is no risk management to worry about.

Yes that does sum it up pretty well I think. I tend to take a bit more risk trying to hit middles in the live betting and am happy just to get some money arbing to cover any lost commission there. Any idea of which books have the you'e done the best at (and therefore have the softest lines), Ace? Years ago SIA was the one I though had the softest lines, at that time they wouldn't change them for hours. But they booted me out long ago. Over time I think I'm up the most at Bodog, with profits at Wager Web, Heritage, Bet Phoenix, and many others I don't play at any more. I'm certainly down at Pinnacle, Betonline 5dimes and Jazz.

[ace7550]

Yes that does sum it up pretty well I think. I tend to take a bit more risk trying to hit middles in the live betting and am happy just to get some money arbing to cover any lost commission there. Any idea of which books have the you'e done the best at (and therefore have the softest lines), Ace? Years ago SIA was the one I though had the softest lines, at that time they wouldn't change them for hours. But they booted me out long ago. Over time I think I'm up the most at Bodog, with profits at Wager Web, Heritage, Bet Phoenix, and many others I don't play at any more. I'm certainly down at Pinnacle, Betonline 5dimes and Jazz.

I find Youwager and Bovada to have the softest lines these days. Bookmaker is a close 2nd. Betagame has soft lines on props. Betnow is very useful in MLB season because they have dime lines all the way up to -200/+190. The more outs you have the more opportunity.

[garyking]

Yes, I agree on Bookmaker and Bovada. I was limited to peanuts at Youwager, and haven't played there for years. Will have to check out Betagame. I only played a month or so at Betnow, got two bonuses and loses immediately, and they haven't offered me anything else, but their lines seemed tough to me although wasn't baseball season.

[ace7550]

Yes, I agree on Bookmaker and Bovada. I was limited to peanuts at Youwager, and haven't played there for years. Will have to check out Betagame. I only played a month or so at Betnow, got two bonuses and loses immediately, and they haven't offered me anything else, but their lines seemed tough to me although wasn't baseball season.

Betnow's lines are pretty sharp for the most part. I find them useful in MLB because sometimes their dime lines create the best value arb. If you haven't made a withdrawal at Betnow you should call them and ask about what bonuses are available. You'll get 25% cash at a minimum.
Betagame has an easy to navigate platform and they pay incredibly fast. They will limit you if you beat them at props though. They'll give you a 100% FP sign up bonus too.

[deeppckts]

gary you're right in theory, but in practice it's almost always the right move to just bet the soft side. The exception might be on college football at a book like youwager where if your total BR is only 10k then betting 1k just at youwager would be a bad move. In practice though, it's usually small markets and props where your BR is either so large that a max bet is warranted by kelly (with no hedge), or if your BR is not that large then to bet less but only at the soft book.

The main reason is that if you're max betting super soft lines, you won't last long, and it would be a shame if you only made a few pennies off of it (because you bought back at a sharp book) rather than just straight betting a lower amount and lasting longer.

Either way, you're definitely fukking up if you fully buy back. No exceptions.

[garyking]

gary you're right in theory, but in practice it's almost always the right move to just bet the soft side. The exception might be on college football at a book like youwager where if your total BR is only 10k then betting 1k just at youwager would be a bad move. In practice though, it's usually small markets and props where your BR is either so large that a max bet is warranted by kelly (with no hedge), or if your BR is not that large then to bet less but only at the soft book.
The main reason is that if you're max betting super soft lines, you won't last long, and it would be a shame if you only made a few pennies off of it (because you bought back at a sharp book) rather than just straight betting a lower amount and lasting longer.

Either way, you're definitely fukking up if you fully buy back. No exceptions.

Sounds like good advice, I shall consider it in the future.

[garyking]

Betnow's lines are pretty sharp for the most part. I find them useful in MLB because sometimes their dime lines create the best value arb. If you haven't made a withdrawal at Betnow you should call them and ask about what bonuses are available. You'll get 25% cash at a minimum.
Betagame has an easy to navigate platform and they pay incredibly fast. They will limit you if you beat them at props though. They'll give you a 100% FP sign up bonus too.

Thx Ace I shall consider redepositing. I'm sure they will give me something as I have not done well there, I've only deposed 300 a couple of times for a 100% bonus, but basically haven't won a bet there. I will definitely have to check out the props though. A lot of my bankroll is tied up at Justbet now. For a while I couldn't win there redepositing until my rollover was almost $30,000 redeposited $500 the other day and now I can't lose there. Betting furiously to kill off the remaining $8000 RO so i can withdraw and try some new sites.

[Crusherrr]

Betnow's lines are pretty sharp for the most part. I find them useful in MLB because sometimes their dime lines create the best value arb. If you haven't made a withdrawal at Betnow you should call them and ask about what bonuses are available. You'll get 25% cash at a minimum.
Betagame has an easy to navigate platform and they pay incredibly fast. They will limit you if you beat them at props though. They'll give you a 100% FP sign up bonus too.

Interesting- I kind of wrote them off because I cashed out after my first deposit and then they just try to bait me with great 100% bonuses with 5x rollover and then tell me I'm not eligible. Didn't realize they had good baseball odds like that though. Will keep on eye on them going forward.

[garyking]

Interesting- I kind of wrote them off because I cashed out after my first deposit and then they just try to bait me with great 100% bonuses with 5x rollover and then tell me I'm not eligible. Didn't realize they had good baseball odds like that though. Will keep on eye on them going forward.

Funny I haven't had that problem there (winning), but the bonuses stopped after the second deposit.

[BigdaddyQH]

What ALL of you losers are doing is allowing yourselves to be put in a position where any on line casino can get rid of you for any reason at all and there is NOTHING that you can do about it. The fact is that ALL of you are losers in the long run. There is not one person in here who can honestly say that he is ahead overall since day one. That is because you fools spend too much time trying to figure out how to beat the books instead of how to win the games. I have won more money overall than anyone in here, by many hundreds of thousands of dollars. I did it by establishing myself at certain Shops in Vegas. I had a limit (and still do) of much more than any of you could ever afford, much less get. I win more than I lose but they always allow me to wager as much as I want because they know I am going to take care of them. What they lose to me is noting compared to the money I bring in for them. I am the only person in here who treats the books as my friends and you guys as the enemy.