Tom Dwan Versus Phil Hellmuth High Stakes Duel - Large Equity Advantage

[doylebrinson]

The heads up match between Tom Dwan and Phil Hellmuth will start tomorrow, August 25th, at 5pm EST. It is a heads up cash game where both players will have the option to buy in unlimited amount of times after losing their stack. In this format, Tom Dwan has a large skill advantage over Phil Hellmuth. Dwan is one of the best heads up cash players in the world. His ability to read hand ranges and solve for dynamic game conditions is unbelievable to watch. Hellmuth will have to climb up hill. Even if Phil wins early, Dwan will have multiple reloads ready. Meanwhile if Hellmuth loses early, he might quit. I would conservatively say Dwan is 70-75% to win this contest.

I found this bet listed on Betonline/Sportsbetting.ag. I bet it a few times throughout the week. I have Dwan at -115, -130, and -145. The line is currently at Dwan -145. You should shop around for the best price. This event will most likely be newly listed on a lot of sportsbooks.


Here is an article highlighting the match:

https://www.cardschat.com/news/tom-dwan-phil-hellmuth-poker-103004/

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'll be looking for this line:

*Can SBR post a line?

More comments to come.

[milwaukee mike]

wow i agree

i got dwan at -140, and limit is 1000

is it unlimited though? sounds like once someone wins 3 in a row that's it, and phil has already won round 1

or starting with round 6 if someone wins 2 in a row that's it

[stevenash]

wow i agree

i got dwan at -140, and limit is 1000

is it unlimited though? sounds like once someone wins 3 in a row that's it, and phil has already won round 1

or starting with round 6 if someone wins 2 in a row that's it

Solid bet IMO
Not disrespect to Phil, Dwan plays on another level.

[littlekona]

Dwan better ring game cash player Phil better MTT. Heads up its a coin flip. Whoever gets lucky cause you know there will be 60/40 all in shoves. I say you take the dog esp with all the public taking Dwan

[Ryermkd]

Solid bet IMO
Not disrespect to Phil, Dwan plays on another level.

[semibluff]

It sounds like a publicity event paid for by television. I don't see either player risking their reputation and a big chunk of change on this. There are big money marks who would be willing to pay to play them and they'd be easier to beat. This sounds like a time limit/best of 5 thing so -140; +120 sounds about right. Hellmuth isn't the player he once was.

[doylebrinson]

wow i agree

i got dwan at -140, and limit is 1000

is it unlimited though? sounds like once someone wins 3 in a row that's it, and phil has already won round 1

or starting with round 6 if someone wins 2 in a row that's it

Thank you for bringing up the question! Your right. It is not unlimited.

According to this article from cardplayer.com https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-new...gh-stakes-duel

Tom Dwan is stepping in for Nick Wright, which means they are in round 2. Phil bought in round 1 for $50,000 beat Nick Wright and now has $100,000. Nick declined his option to buy in for $100,000. Dwan will buy in for $100,000. If Phil wins two matches against Dwan, he can leave with his profits and be declared the winner. If Dwan wins one round, Phil has the right to quit or re-enter for $200,000. If Hellmuth wins the first match, and Dwan wins the second, Hellmuth would have the opportunity to re-enter for $400,000.



This game environment favors Tom Dwan. He is much more comfortable buying in for $200,000 and $400,000. Phil has won 7 matches in a row. Three against Antonio Estandiari, three against Daniel Negreanu, and one against Nick Wright for a total profit of $750,000. Phil will be extremely likely to quit at the 400,000 buy in level. He will not want to risk every penny he has won against Tom Dwan in a 3rd round winner take all scenario.

Dwan has more ways to win this event. He is also highly motivated to destroy Phil in front of everyone. Dwan has waited a long time for this opportunity.

[thetrinity]

Is he even good now Dwan? I think 2008 was 13 years ago.

[doylebrinson]

Solid bet IMO
Not disrespect to Phil, Dwan plays on another level.

100% agree my friend!

[doylebrinson]

Dwan better ring game cash player Phil better MTT. Heads up its a coin flip. Whoever gets lucky cause you know there will be 60/40 all in shoves. I say you take the dog esp with all the public taking Dwan

I understand where you are coming from. Luck is part of the game. Phil could hit a two outer or something an win this match even though he was outplayed. Dwan is a much better heads up cash game no limit player than Hellmuth. The stack depth of this event is probably going to be 150-300 big blinds with relatively slow moving blinds. They will have tons of room to play. I highly doubt either player will be pushing all in for 60/40 flips early.

[doylebrinson]

Is he even good now Dwan? I think 2008 was 13 years ago.

You should do some research. Dwan is considered one of the best high stakes cash game players in the world by his peers. Research what Phil Ivey, Phil Galfond, and Patrick Antonious say about Dwans abilities.

[cincinnatikid513]

live streamed ?

[BigJay]

I couldn’t find a line at
Heritage
Bookmaker
BAS

Unless I’m looking in the wrong place

[doylebrinson]

live streamed ?

Yes, on Pokergo! I just signed up for a monthly account. $15 is well worth the price of admission for me and there is a ton of high quality poker content on the site!

[doylebrinson]

I couldn’t find a line at
Heritage
Bookmaker
BAS

Unless I’m looking in the wrong place

I have only been able to find it on Betonline/Sportsbetting.ag for the USA. It is listed under "Other Sports", "Poker", "Poker Props".

I know it is also on Pokershares.com However they do not accept customers located in the USA.


Has anyone found a USA facing site listing this?

[stevenash]

Yes, on Pokergo! I just signed up for a monthly account. $15 is well worth the price of admission for me and there is a ton of high quality poker content on the site!

I was considering a subscription.
You're like the eight player to say it's worth it.

OK, I'm sold.

[thetrinity]

You should do some research. Dwan is considered one of the best high stakes cash game players in the world by his peers. Research what Phil Ivey, Phil Galfond, and Patrick Antonious say about Dwans abilities.

Maybe you should live in 2021. He was ducking people for years. Yeah he could beat the crappy hellmouth heads up. Hellmuth isn’t a good heads up player, just an egomaniac. Glad to see dwan back but the aura and mystique are long gone.

[stevenash]

Maybe you should live in 2021. He was ducking people for years. Yeah he could beat the crappy hellmouth heads up. Hellmuth isn’t a good heads up player, just an egomaniac. Glad to see dwan back but the aura and mystique are long gone.

Dwan is good for the game.
Like or dislike him.

[boscokid]

Hellmuth pretty much ABC player. I doubt he could beat SBR poker

[Ryermkd]

Hellmuth pretty much ABC player. I doubt he could beat SBR poker

Yaya... ABC, Doh-Ray-Mi you muddar-bhenchod fukk

[IMG]https://hips.hearstapps.com/sev.h-cdn.co/assets/15/45/2048x1165/gallery-1446824821-12038569-10153015444511237-8218060226590962793-o.jpg?resize=480:*[/IMG]

P.S. I just learnt (TRULY) why Xi is called Winnie the Pooh... just today. Lightbulb went off (common sense).
The man might as well be have liquid cooling under that suit! I think I deserve some supplies!!!

I might just have to study science and practice myself!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_2GWS9fxwg

[milwaukee mike]

I understand where you are coming from. Luck is part of the game. Phil could hit a two outer or something an win this match even though he was outplayed. Dwan is a much better heads up cash game no limit player than Hellmuth. The stack depth of this event is probably going to be 150-300 big blinds with relatively slow moving blinds. They will have tons of room to play. I highly doubt either player will be pushing all in for 60/40 flips early.

that's silly that you think hellmuth would have to hit a 2-outer

i think hellmuth is 7-0 in his last 7 heads up matches

[milwaukee mike]

Maybe you should live in 2021. He was ducking people for years. Yeah he could beat the crappy hellmouth heads up. Hellmuth isn’t a good heads up player, just an egomaniac. Glad to see dwan back but the aura and mystique are long gone.

3-0 against negreanu
3-0 against esfandiari

15-11 heads up wsop all time against guys like johnny chan and tj cloutier

but yeah i guess hellmuth is crappy and completely worthless lol

i thought dwan should be -150 to -170 but let's be serious, hellmuth isn't nearly as bad as people think

[semibluff]

3-0 against negreanu
3-0 against esfandiari

15-11 heads up wsop all time against guys like johnny chan and tj cloutier

but yeah i guess hellmuth is crappy and completely worthless lol

i thought dwan should be -150 to -170 but let's be serious, hellmuth isn't nearly as bad as people think

If I could get +150 on Hellmuth against anyone i'd like those odds. Even with declining skills there isn't a 60-40 match-up opponent out there. The margins between a great and very good player heads-up are very small, particularly in a no-limit format.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Dwan was down early but came back and won.

He cracked Hellmuth's slowplayed AA with 93 off to end it.

[thetrinity]

3-0 against negreanu
3-0 against esfandiari

15-11 heads up wsop all time against guys like johnny chan and tj cloutier

but yeah i guess hellmuth is crappy and completely worthless lol

i thought dwan should be -150 to -170 but let's be serious, hellmuth isn't nearly as bad as people think

Hellmuth is better than Dwan at every form of poker pretty much except short deck NL, heads up PLO and heads up NL. He is an egomaniac, but he is pretty good too. Extracting full value from bad players in tournaments is what he does best IMO. There was actually a tournament in Pittsburgh he won when he left for half of the first day to go to a Penguins game at night. Also, he doesn't really say anything when cameras aren't on him. That's his TV persona you get at the WSOP. They brought him in for a late night poker cash game or some shit that was filming the next day.

[thetrinity]

If I could get +150 on Hellmuth against anyone i'd like those odds. Even with declining skills there isn't a 60-40 match-up opponent out there. The margins between a great and very good player heads-up are very small, particularly in a no-limit format.

I hate heads up personally. I have done decent in some online tournies, but have an 0-5 record in tournament matches live.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I hate heads up personally. I have done decent in some online tournies, but have an 0-5 record in tournament matches live.

Not a big fan either. I usually try and just be uber aggressive, even if you get it in behind it's usually only 40-60ish.

[thetrinity]

Not a big fan either. I usually try and just be uber aggressive, even if you get it in behind it's usually only 40-60ish.

The last one I played this guy literally 3 bet every single hand. I seriously never saw his cards once. I got 22 and said no more when he had about 70% of the chips. I raised he 3 bet I shoved he had kings lmao. That led me to think he was loaded every time. Honestly, if the deck runs them over you have no chance no matter who you are. At least in 6 max or full tournaments you can find spots for the most part.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

The last one I played this guy literally 3 bet every single hand. I seriously never saw his cards once. I got 22 and said no more when he had about 70% of the chips. I raised he 3 bet I shoved he had kings lmao. That led me to think he was loaded every time. Honestly, if the deck runs them over you have no chance no matter who you are. At least in 6 max or full tournaments you can find spots for the most part.

Yep. I refuse to let someone just run me over gotta take a stand at some point.

[stevenash]

^
Did you know the best hand preflop to hold preflop heads up vs. AA is 7/6 suited or 8/7 suited?

Those two hands are 22.5/77.5 underdogs.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

^
Did you know the best hand preflop to hold preflop heads up vs. AA is 7/6 suited or 8/7 suited?

Those two hands are 22.5/77.5 underdogs.

JT suited is up there as well

[stevenash]

JT suited is up there as well

About eight years ago I was short stacked in a tournament.
Woke up with KK, shove all in.
Big stack snap called with 7/8 hearts.

Cracked my Kings with a 5-9 straight.
At that point I decided to learn all the poker math I could cram into my brain.
It made sense.

% to win when holding AA	Opponents hand
88.2%	72o (considered the worst hand combination in poker)
85%	Any broadway combination (TT+ pocket pairs, only T+ hands.)
80.5%	22+
79%	JTs
78%	98s
77.5%	76s

[doylebrinson]

Dwan was down early but came back and won.

He cracked Hellmuth's slowplayed AA with 93 off to end it.

It was a great match from start to finish! Phil Hellmuth played very well! Hellmuth had an A+ mental approach for the first three to four hours. Dwan made some incredible hero calls with less than a pair of fives and Phil lost it. Phil couldn't handle it. He just wanted to blame Dwan for being a calling station and playing poker that is "not poker'. In reality, Hellmuth likes to pick his spots to steal chips with less than nothing and take advantage of everyones image of him being overly conservative. He loves to open limp the button with AK, AT, and take advantage of the players that blindly raise 20-30% of their holdings. Dwan had Hellmuths trap style on complete lock down. He out-adjusted Phil. At some point Dwan started to check the majority of his hands when Phil open limped the button (once even with 88). Dwan is probably one of the best heads up no limit players the world has ever known. Watching him play just improves the way I think about the game. There are only a few players that I can honestly say that about. A few more would be Cole South, Doyle Brunson, and Phil Galfond. I always come away from watching them play, with a sense of awe and amazement.

Phil played well enough to win! Maybe with a different run of cards and a few different decisions, he would have. Now we will wait to see, if and when Hellmuth decides to rematch Dwan for a 100K buy in.

Here is cardplayer.com article covering the results:

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/26163-poker-pro-tom-dwan-snaps-phil-hellmuth-s-heads-up-winning-streak-at-seven

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Anyone else's wager still pending?