Sharpest bookie for soccer (football)

[hcetigol]

So guys, let's hear some more recent opinions as everything I have found so far regarding the topic is a few years old.

A few years ago there was a general consensus that Asia ruled Asian Handicap and Asian Total markets for soccer, with some exceptions (regional based) where Pinnacle dominated based on bet size and vig.

In recent months, SBO has become very soft in terms of odds and stake size (at least via brokers). IBC has been removed by some brokers like Sportmarket due to unfairly voiding bets, again showing they are not as confident in their lines as they once were. The only decent Asian bookie remaining via a broker is ISN, at lease via the brokers I am familiar with.

Is it fair to say that Pinnacle is now the king of soccer? Or is it still Asia somehow?

Please share your thoughts.

[littlekona]

the new heritage soccer plus I have found many markets at better prices then pinny

[HeeeHAWWWW]

From last year's EPL, most accurate moneylines in order (lower is better):

Matchbook 58.60
IBC 58.97
SBO 58.99 <---presumably a lot worse now
Pinny 59.05
Bet365 59.05
Betway 59.07
WillHill 59.12
Bwin 59.19



Kinda surprising how well the likes of b365 do, but the soft British books do actually take a lot of money on EPL now, and wisdom of crowds will work there are much as anywhere.

The gap between sharp and rec books is much larger for other leagues, eg Spanish (matchbook is also top there though).

Wish I had betfair figures to hand, but probably v similar to mbook.

[LRBC]

it not about how accurate they are overall, it about how accurate they are when the prices are differnt

WhillHill ,Bet365 , Bwin, close my account down, SBO, IBC don't really exist on agent mollybet (others) betting platforms anymore....but Betfair and pinnacle does , this tell you who the most accurate at Soccer

[DISTROYA]

5dimes and pinny seem best overall. US players at least. Just checked out heritage's soccer plus; still I have much better value at aforementioned books overall. I have a gigantic $50 max bet at heritage (why dont they just not make it $0.00) how bout you Kona?

[hcetigol]

From last year's EPL, most accurate moneylines in order (lower is better):

Matchbook 58.60
IBC 58.97
SBO 58.99 <---presumably a lot worse now
Pinny 59.05
Bet365 59.05
Betway 59.07
WillHill 59.12
Bwin 59.19



Kinda surprising how well the likes of b365 do, but the soft British books do actually take a lot of money on EPL now, and wisdom of crowds will work there are much as anywhere.

The gap between sharp and rec books is much larger for other leagues, eg Spanish (matchbook is also top there though).

Wish I had betfair figures to hand, but probably v similar to mbook.

How did you come up with these figures? You pointed out SBO is presumably worse now, what are your thoughts on IBC?

I find it hard to believe any big plays originate at Matchbook considering the liquidity there.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

How did you come up with these figures? You pointed out SBO is presumably worse now, what are your thoughts on IBC?

They're Brier scores (or at least Brier*100 for readability). It's a way of measuring how well probabilities do in predicting an outcome.

wrt IBC, it's hard to know what's going on there. They're probably still taking insanely large volume though - at one point it was something like $1.5 billion a week. That's not going to go away overnight.

re: matchbook, exchanges may be more accurate simply because of the way their pricing works. A book isn't looking to generate the most accurate price, it's looking to make the most money - the two are often similar, but not necessarily the same.

Should also have mentioned these are closing prices.

[hcetigol]

They're Brier scores (or at least Brier*100 for readability). It's a way of measuring how well probabilities do in predicting an outcome.

wrt IBC, it's hard to know what's going on there. They're probably still taking insanely large volume though - at one point it was something like $1.5 billion a week. That's not going to go away overnight.

re: matchbook, exchanges may be more accurate simply because of the way their pricing works. A book isn't looking to generate the most accurate price, it's looking to make the most money - the two are often similar, but not necessarily the same.

Should also have mentioned these are closing prices.

As always you've provided some really useful information. Thank you, much appreciated

[Ruifgalmeida]

Excellent tread guys, my personal opinion as a Over/under bettor is that on major league soccer like EPL, Laliga, SerieA, Pinnacle and Betfair are the sharpest line and 99% of I will not go against their opinion , but maybe that's just me been old school.

[Ruifgalmeida]

On Secondary market like really minor leagues is thought to say , Ibc and sbo have good opinions but I would say that sbobet as the sharpest line and places like singbet and 1xbet are always way off

[hcetigol]

Excellent tread guys, my personal opinion as a Over/under bettor is that on major league soccer like EPL, Laliga, SerieA, Pinnacle and Betfair are the sharpest line and 99% of I will not go against their opinion , but maybe that's just me been old school.

That's interesting to hear because in the Over/Under markets you often see Pinnacle's max bet not even come close to Asian bookies.