where are all the arbitrage opportunities!?

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  • searanchdude
    SBR High Roller
    • 08-10-17
    • 137

    #1
    where are all the arbitrage opportunities!?
    I generated significant cash doing bonus arbitrage over the years... but a couple of months ago that all stopped. Bookmaker cancelled my bonus privileges, Bovada made their crypto special 30X rollover, and the other ones find one way or another to prevent arb'ing. I guess that's their right and they do it on purpose! I can't use stateside books yet because I'm in California. I find a few small scale opportunities, but I'm down to $300-$500 per month profit, when I use to make many multiples of that.

    Anyone out there still finding offshore arb'ing opportunities? I know, I know, I should just pick a side and win that way. I don't know enough about sports to do that, am just a math nerd :-)
    Last edited by searanchdude; 10-31-22, 11:26 AM.
  • garyking
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-18-07
    • 684

    #2
    It's nowhere near as good as it was 15 years ago that's for sure. I find I can generate about $2000 per month now and less when the NFL is not on. I'm using about 7 books now regularly, and have had accounts (and been limited/banned) at many many more. But my betting is almost all live now, and as such consumes a lot of time for a relatively small profit.

    I recommend reading the book "the logic of sports betting" by Ed Miller (If you haven't already) as it contains some information on how sportsbooks operate, and deal with things like arbing.
    Comment
    • Crusherrr
      SBR MVP
      • 06-27-16
      • 3646

      #3
      I know you mean bonus arbitrage, mostly- but the opportunities have still been tremendous for me. Bookmaker/JustBet did unlimited 100% $1,000 FP offers all October.

      BetOnline VIP players get 3x 50% up to $1,000 FP bonuses each week and have a 100% FP $1,000 offer live right now, too.

      Carbon/Sportsbook with the 50% cash bonuses up to $1,000 each week. If a site only sees you betting arbitrage/bonus bets and seemingly wagering to clear rollover after they will probably cut you off. I've always given regular action, played poker (if offered) and bet (sometimes very large) in their casinos to complete my entire player profile.

      If you want pure arbitrage betting there are several other sites that provide this information for you. If you want only +EV bets there are also groups on discord you can follow, guys giving plays on twitter in real time and also paid data sites that offer only +EV betting.

      I know very little about golf but am finding at least 20-30 5-10% opportunities a week just from a paid service. If your average wager is $250 you're easily making $3,000 a month in EV just from the higher EV plays. There are more opportunities than that, some with higher edge but more variance and some with lower edge. If you add LIV+Euro you're making even more from a relatively small unit size (imo)
      Comment
      • milwaukee mike
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-22-07
        • 26914

        #4
        enjoy the moneymakers while you have them... because they can all stop on a dime

        everyone has good angles totally disappear, now it would be pretty difficult to make a living... if looking for a side hustle, or just some fun and entertainment, sports betting is still OK for that

        wish i wasn't such a degenerate when the money making opportunities were much better!
        Comment
        • garyking
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 01-18-07
          • 684

          #5
          Originally posted by milwaukee mike
          enjoy the moneymakers while you have them... because they can all stop on a dime

          everyone has good angles totally disappear, now it would be pretty difficult to make a living... if looking for a side hustle, or just some fun and entertainment, sports betting is still OK for that

          wish i wasn't such a degenerate when the money making opportunities were much better!
          Yes, and to a certain extent everyone has their gambling achilles heel. For me a certain percentage of the sports profits always goes to the horses, and a lesser extent to roulette lol.
          Comment
          • searanchdude
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-10-17
            • 137

            #6
            thanks for ideas and encouragement fellas... @Crusherrr, you definitely gave me some ideas to adjust and enhance my winnings, just as you have done over the years. @garyking, I've read "The Logic of Betting Sports", great book!
            Comment
            • garyking
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 01-18-07
              • 684

              #7
              Originally posted by searanchdude
              thanks for ideas and encouragement fellas... @Crusherrr, you definitely gave me some ideas to adjust and enhance my winnings, just as you have done over the years. @garyking, I've read "The Logic of Betting Sports", great book!
              Just finishing it now Searanch, you're right a great book.
              Comment
              • stevex
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 05-02-10
                • 5122

                #8
                Originally posted by Crusherrr
                I know you mean bonus arbitrage, mostly- but the opportunities have still been tremendous for me. Bookmaker/JustBet did unlimited 100% $1,000 FP offers all October.

                BetOnline VIP players get 3x 50% up to $1,000 FP bonuses each week and have a 100% FP $1,000 offer live right now, too.

                Carbon/Sportsbook with the 50% cash bonuses up to $1,000 each week. If a site only sees you betting arbitrage/bonus bets and seemingly wagering to clear rollover after they will probably cut you off. I've always given regular action, played poker (if offered) and bet (sometimes very large) in their casinos to complete my entire player profile.

                If you want pure arbitrage betting there are several other sites that provide this information for you. If you want only +EV bets there are also groups on discord you can follow, guys giving plays on twitter in real time and also paid data sites that offer only +EV betting.

                I know very little about golf but am finding at least 20-30 5-10% opportunities a week just from a paid service. If your average wager is $250 you're easily making $3,000 a month in EV just from the higher EV plays. There are more opportunities than that, some with higher edge but more variance and some with lower edge. If you add LIV+Euro you're making even more from a relatively small unit size (imo)
                I thought Sportsbook/Carbon cut you off from their bonus since you were up a lot there?
                Comment
                • Crusherrr
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-27-16
                  • 3646

                  #9
                  They went a few weeks where they didnt do the 50% offers and lowered payouts from $5k to $2.5k but I never lost my bonus offers.
                  Comment
                  • rustygsbr
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 10-29-11
                    • 73

                    #10
                    Does carbon take USA? Do they have high betting limits?
                    Comment
                    • Crusherrr
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-27-16
                      • 3646

                      #11
                      Originally posted by rustygsbr
                      Does carbon take USA? Do they have high betting limits?
                      Yes, but if you don't have an account opened already prior to like 2019 you can't make one now. Closed off.

                      Not super high. But usually $3k-5k for most major sports. Tonight's World Series I know they took up to $10k. But if you won that bet it'd take a month to be paid, so no reason to bother betting that big.
                      Comment
                      • rustygsbr
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 10-29-11
                        • 73

                        #12
                        Thanks so much for this information.

                        Originally posted by Crusherrr
                        Yes, but if you don't have an account opened already prior to like 2019 you can't make one now. Closed off.

                        Not super high. But usually $3k-5k for most major sports. Tonight's World Series I know they took up to $10k. But if you won that bet it'd take a month to be paid, so no reason to bother betting that big.
                        Comment
                        • jjgold
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-20-05
                          • 388189

                          #13
                          Scalping all over

                          Everyone copies each others lines
                          Comment
                          • Fishhead
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 08-11-05
                            • 40179

                            #14
                            Innovate and adapt

                            Only way to survive in this business

                            Also, early birds get more worms.
                            Comment
                            • searanchdude
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 08-10-17
                              • 137

                              #15
                              Crusherrr, how do you sort out the reliable scientific +EV paid pick providers vs just some website that ranks some pro pickers that have a hot streak. I see DonBest, Vegas Insider, Action Network... are those reliable? Any you care to name specifically that you like?
                              Comment
                              • milwaukee mike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-22-07
                                • 26914

                                #16
                                Originally posted by searanchdude
                                Crusherrr, how do you sort out the reliable scientific +EV paid pick providers vs just some website that ranks some pro pickers that have a hot streak. I see DonBest, Vegas Insider, Action Network... are those reliable? Any you care to name specifically that you like?
                                i'll butt in to say other than RAS and maybe a couple others, there is nothing anyone should ever pay for

                                sbr used to have a whole forum where all the tout picks could be gotten for free, and they weren't even worth that!
                                Comment
                                • stevex
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 05-02-10
                                  • 5122

                                  #17
                                  I think we’re talking about two different things here. There are services you can pay for that guys just offer their picks. Then there are also services that you pay for which show you arb opportunities. Crush’s example was golf for arbs. From my understanding, and I may be outdated here but you need access to Euro books to even attempt to arb. Just having access to US and offshore (Costa Rica) is won’t cut it.
                                  Comment
                                  • Crusherrr
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-27-16
                                    • 3646

                                    #18
                                    I was simply talking about +EV betting using datagolf.
                                    Other services like spankodds and unabated are also excellent. But I only use those when betting no vig lines. You will seldom find arbitrage opportunities with those but Oddsjam has arbitrage bets. Works great for props
                                    Comment
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