Mr Octobers 2020 Tennis Plays thread

**Maizey** · 02-19-20, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by ibuystock

My bet on Jung was graded as a loss by my sportsbook. I guess many books have different rules about retiring during tennis match.

The great majority of them grade after one completed set. All three of mine grade that way.

**Mr0ctober** · 02-19-20, 01:01 PM

Bookmaker the match must be completed in it’s entirety.

**Maizey** · 02-19-20, 08:36 PM

Well, that’s certainly a top notch book. #1 on the SBR list of books. My three accounts happen to be at SBR books #2, #3 and #4. I’m surprised Bookmaker grades that way. It actually can be beneficial to play against those rules when you are betting a player that may have a chance to aggravate an injury. That said, I personally prefer the 1 set grading rule. It seems more fair, kind of like a baseball game going 5 innings to be graded.

**Mr0ctober** · 02-19-20, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Maizey

Well, that’s certainly a top notch book. #1 on the SBR list of books. My three accounts happen to be at SBR books #2, #3 and #4. I’m surprised Bookmaker grades that way. It actually can be beneficial to play against those rules when you are betting a player that may have a chance to aggravate an injury. That said, I personally prefer the 1 set grading rule. It seems more fair, kind of like a baseball game going 5 innings to be graded.

yeah I think standard is after one set. It’s hurt me before just as it helped me yesterday. It all evens out in long run probably. Best of luck this year!

**Maizey** · 02-19-20, 09:47 PM

Same to you buddy!

**Mr0ctober** · 02-20-20, 08:26 AM

2/20
atp parlay:
johnson/Thiem/Sparty ML hoops -115 (0.92u to win 0.8u)

also
Sablenka/Sparty ml (-110) (0.88 to win 0.8u)

Ironically we talked about this yesterday. Be sure to bet this one at a book that considers the match complete after one full set as we could see Halep pull out today.

best of luck guys

**Mr0ctober** · 02-21-20, 07:49 AM

Year to date: 49-33 +23.593u

2/21:
Nishioka/Thiem -125 (1u to win 0.8u)

**Mr0ctober** · 02-23-20, 10:09 AM

Nishioka/Thiem -125 (1u to win 0.8u)❌

Year to date: 49-34 +22.593u

**Mr0ctober** · 02-27-20, 06:47 PM

Couple plays:
Kwon/Rafa over 19 +105 (risk 0.5u)
Grigor/Stanimal Over 23 (-115) to win 0.5u

**Mr0ctober** · 03-01-20, 07:41 AM

Year to date: 49-36 +21.518u

3/1:

WTA Monterrey:
Scmeidlova -168 (to win 1u)

will start seeing more plays frequently again. Had to take a little break from capping. I spend a lot of time before making a pick and life got busy.

**SCI** · 03-01-20, 10:27 AM

BOL. Good to see you will be posting more picks.

Totals are tough to predict. I try to avoid after not much success. Picking a winner seems like better odds than picking a scoreline.

**Mr0ctober** · 03-01-20, 05:04 PM

Thanks SCI. And yes I definitely play less totals! Best of luck!!

WTA Monterrey:
Scmeidlova -168 (to win 1u)✅

Year to date: 50-36 +22.518u

**Mr0ctober** · 03-01-20, 09:24 PM

Triple play 3/2:

WTA:
Bara +5 games (-120) (risk 0.6 to win 0.5u)
Bonaventure +135 (risk 0.5u)
Money line parlay: Van Uytvanck/Watson (-170) (0.85u to win 0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 03-02-20, 08:39 AM

WTA:
Bara +5 games (-120) (risk 0.6 to win 0.5u)✅
Bonaventure +135 (risk 0.5u)✅ +0.675u

Year to date: 52-36 +23.693u✅

Pending the Watson portion of this.
Money line parlay: Van Uytvanck/Watson (-170) (0.85u to win 0.5u)

**SCI** · 03-02-20, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Mr0ctober

WTA:
Bara +5 games (-120) (risk 0.6 to win 0.5u)✅
Bonaventure +135 (risk 0.5u)✅ +0.675u

Year to date: 52-36 +23.693u✅

Pending the Watson portion of this.
Money line parlay: Van Uytvanck/Watson (-170) (0.85u to win 0.5u)

Nice day

**Mr0ctober** · 03-02-20, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by SCI

Nice day

had a little of that bara money line too!!

**Mr0ctober** · 03-03-20, 10:32 AM

Pending the Watson portion of this.
Money line parlay: Van Uytvanck/Watson (-170) (0.85u to win 0.5u)

3/3:

money line parlay:
WTA kasatkina/ATP Humbert/ncaa hoops Bama and Bucknell

-106 ( risking 0.53u to win 0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 03-03-20, 08:07 PM

Can I win a tiebreaker. Goodness❌❌

Year to date: 52-38 +22.313u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 03-06-20, 08:15 AM

Trying to pick my spots during these rather light tennis days

3/6:

Bouzkova -125 (to win 0.8u)
Van Uytvanck -115 (to win 0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 03-06-20, 03:19 PM

3/6:

Bouzkova -125 (to win 0.8u)✅
Van Uytvanck -115 (to win 0.5u)✅

Year to date: 54-38 +23.613u

**Mr0ctober** · 03-09-20, 08:19 AM

Well had plays lined up for Indian Wells. So much for that

**Vyasports** · 03-10-20, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by Mr0ctober

Well had plays lined up for Indian Wells. So much for that

how come?

**Mr0ctober** · 03-10-20, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Vyasports

how come?

Tournament cancelled due to corona virus.

**Mr0ctober** · 08-03-20, 01:00 PM

Year to date: 54-38 +23.613u

I’m back guys been busy with mlb capping and golf and with tennis being so light been treading lightly.

First play back

WTA
Mladenovic -121 (she playAlexandrova) (to win 0.5u)

Best of luck guys

**Mr0ctober** · 08-03-20, 04:20 PM

First play back

WTA
Mladenovic -121 (she playAlexandrova) (to win 0.5u)❌

Brick city ignored the fitness factor and shouldn’t have (Mladenovic pulled out last match and I didn’t factor it in as much as I should of.). I liked the price but should
Have treaded more cautiously. Bad pick no excuse

Year to date: 54-39 +23.008.

**Mr0ctober** · 08-05-20, 09:24 AM

Won’t count this if it wins or loses but suggest ferro live as she is down 2 games to 0 in WTA Palmero. Think she pulls it together and wins.

**Mr0ctober** · 08-05-20, 11:22 AM

Hope someone jumped on with me! 🍻

**Mr0ctober** · 08-10-20, 11:55 PM

WTA Lexington
Kristie Ahn +143 (0.5u)
Kristie Ahn +3 games -108 (0.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 08-14-20, 03:01 PM

Never recalled these didn’t need to it was push retired
Kristie Ahn +143 (0.5u)
Kristie Ahn +3 games -108 (0.5u)

WTA Lexington
Ons Jabeur +121 (0.5u)

Year to date: 54-39 +23.008.

**SerG1230** · 08-15-20, 01:36 PM

long time follow, first time poster

Good work here guys!

**Mr0ctober** · 08-15-20, 01:56 PM

Thanks!!

WTA Lexington
Ons Jabeur +121 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u

Year to date: 54-40 +22.508.

**Mr0ctober** · 08-24-20, 05:00 PM

Yes I’m still watching tennis and yes I’m following it I’m just treading lightly to start as it is hard to cap with most of these players not being action for a long time.

**Mr0ctober** · 08-26-20, 09:07 PM

Still patiently waiting

**flabrah5** · 08-27-20, 11:25 PM

Mertens? She's playing like a beast. Osaka has been herself, yes, but Mertens is breaking folks left and right. So tempted to lay a $15k bet on that +136 ML.

Thoughts?

**Mr0ctober** · 08-28-20, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by flabrah5

Mertens? She's playing like a beast. Osaka has been herself, yes, but Mertens is breaking folks left and right. So tempted to lay a $15k bet on that +136 ML.

Thoughts?

I looked through this match. Mertens has been outstanding so far while Osaka is coming off a roller coaster match where she finally defeated Kontaviet.

One thing to keep in mind is Mertens path has been much easier to this point in terms of opponents this tournament. Which could give us a false sense of confidence but could also help in terms of fatigue or freshness.

Mertens is someone that always fights so I highly doubt she lays down but she hasn’t faired well historically against top ranked players like Osaka in the past. And Osaka did handle her in their last match (rather easily).

Not going to talk you off a near +140 dog that is going to fight for you but just pointing out some counter points. I have the line near correct so would be a no play for me but as I tell most people if you have conviction and a angle in your mind that you think is valid and the right side you play it. There are multiple ways to skin a cat in this business - numbers, analytics, gut, feel... etc. no one way is right and no one way is the only way to victory.

If you like the side play it but never bet beyond your means. 15k is a lot of money but I don’t know your standard bet size either way good luck if you play it!! I’ll be tuning in as much as I can during work ha!

All that being said if you told me I had to take a side I would take Mertens!