2021 Tennis Season - Picks & Analysis

**Jeff_Black** · 03-14-21, 07:02 AM

1 - 0 - 0, (+1.13u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Alexander Bublik
Handicap: Alexander Bublik -3.5, 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I'll take Bublik's form and talented advantages over Nishioka. Even in their matchup at Singapore he was all over him and his opponent had no answers. On top of this Nishioka has had a bit of a dip in form going into 2021 and has struggled to make it out of the early rounds, lacking confidence. But I think the other problem is here is that he does not get the most out of his serve, due to his height, which made it easier for the talented Bublik to tear apart, most notably in their last matchup. He's a good returner, but he can get broken easily when not at his best. Bublik seems to be applying himself more this year and recently and I'm looking at him again to come up with the goods in this matchup and continue to rise in the rankings.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-14-21, 10:40 PM

1 - 1 - 0, (+0.13u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Moneyline: Mikhail Kukushkin, 2.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I like the odds on offer here with Struff struggling for form, losing four in a row, while Kukushkin has had a few qualifying matches under his belt to get used to this surface. His head to head record in the past and record in Dubai hasn't been great but he did snap out of some poor form recently in 2021.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Radu Albot
Moneyline: Radu Albot, 2.89 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

-200 odds seems a bit strange for a talented player like Davidovich Fokina, who likes to take the ball early and ability to win points down the line. However I have heard he is struggling a bit with a few niggling injuries. He hasn't lost in the first round so far of the tournaments he's entered but Albot will feel lucky after being in the main draw for being a Lucky Loser. Albot doesn't have the most flashiest of games but he can win matches as shown in 2021. Looking at a potential upset here.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-21, 04:55 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
John Millman vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Moneyline: Bernabe Zapata Miralles, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Zapata Miralles came through a few qualifying matches, including an impressive comeback against established Radu Albot. His opponent John Millman, has had a pretty poor start to 2021 even though I've never really rated him too highly, I think he's lacking in confidence and will continue to struggle in 2021 in this matchup.

**slayer14** · 03-15-21, 06:28 AM

Milman collapsed this 2nd set when leading 4-1

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-21, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by slayer14

Milman collapsed this 2nd set when leading 4-1

Lucky me, scrappy match all round today but his form has been diabolical for a while.

2 - 3 - 0, (-0.94u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Emil Ruusuvuori vs Jordan Thompson
Set Handicap: Emil Ruusuvuori -1.5 sets, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both guys are good movers and don't mind hitting long rallies but I think Ruusuvuori clearly has the higher ceiling and has the more superior game, especially on the backhand. I expect him to dictate play and step in with him being in more then enough form to win against Thompson who has been uninspiring in 2021 so far.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-21, 06:46 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R1
Richard Gasquet vs Marco Cecchinato
Set Handicap: Richard Gasquet -1.5 Sets, 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Richard Gasquet had some lingering injury issues earlier which forced him to pull out of a few tournaments but he's looked to overcome that in preparation for a tournament he has done well in during various years in the past. Cecchinato isn't really a hard court player and had a disappointing clay court campaign in 2021. Even though these guys haven't played each other I'm taking Gasquet who is the far superior player to win this match in two.

**slayer14** · 03-15-21, 07:09 AM

Gasquet at the end of career now it tough for him to win

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-21, 07:41 AM

He’s ageing as badly as Nadal but at least he’s not balding as fast.

Had to tough out that opening game and his French DNA didn’t kick in. Looked a bit better since, far from polished but grinding and hitting some sweet shots.
Not sure if he will have a lapse but haven’t checked who he will play, unlikely to back him again

**csori** · 03-15-21, 10:18 AM

bravo

**kostasblues** · 03-15-21, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by csori

bravo

What he said!

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-21, 05:07 PM

4 - 3 - 0, (+1.043u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
John Isner vs Salvatore Caruso
Set Handicap: John Isner -1.5 sets, 2.48 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Normally I'd not be that keen on this matchup but I think the odds present value. Firstly, Acapulco can be a pretty quick surface to play on, I think that'll play right into Isner's hands with his lighting fast serves, and I don't think Carusco has the return game to trouble Isner's serves. And secondly I don't think Caruso has the form to trouble Isner even though Isner has stayed in the States and not played in the Australian Open. He normally plays his best tennis in these North and South American hardcourts and I think he will be keen to make up for lost time, resuming from his QF performances at Delray with a win here.

I don't like the other matches on the board as much, but might have a play on Korda later as well. Tempting to fade Felix but I think this surface will suit his game.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-15-21, 10:36 PM

5 - 3 - 0, (+2.523u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Marin Cilic vs Sebastian Korda
Handicap: Sebatian Korda -1, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Korda has had a pretty good 2021 despite a few hiccups, he has rested and is back on the American hardcourts where he thrives. He will like the faster surface and I think he can take advantage of Cilic's average form so far. Cilic is lacking confidence, struggling in form and consistency and doesn't seem to have the range on his shots anymore. He can blast players off the court when he's on but perhaps age has caught up to him, against a younger opponent who also likes to hit it flat and is feeling confident in some form. I'll take the odds on offer as I believe they are a bit reflective of Cilic's reputation rather then true form.

**csori** · 03-16-21, 01:38 AM

bravo

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-21, 03:17 AM

6 - 3 - 0, (+3.475u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Aslan Karatsev vs Dan Evans
Moneyline: Dan Evans, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I will make it a point to find at times when Karatsev is overvalued which will be a common trend going forward for other bettors. When he was at the Australian Open making his impressive run his opponents at times even admitted they did not know much about him. Now they do. There is sure going to be times when his sky high form will level out and hit reality considering he played mostly challengers up until recently. But not only that, the opponent, Dan Evans who has played well in Dubai in the past on this surface will be a tough matchup for him because he will give him little pace and has a terrific slice backhand that can mix things up. When he was playing in Australia, opponents gave him pace and lost the UE game against him. Dan Evans I think should also be able to rally with him but I think having never played him this should be an interesting test.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-21, 03:44 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Richard Gasquet vs Hubert Hurkacz
Moneyline: Richard Gasquet, 2.58 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Well having wagered on him yesterday and not being completely sold on him early it looked like he put hammer down and finished off the match in dominant fashion, 6-1. Not only that but he was solid on first serve, winning 27 from 29 points and not being troubled on the 2nd serve. Hurkacz is a better player on this surface then Cecchinato but he's also had one less match and has had an uninspiring 2021 to date since being in Australia. He said after the match he enjoys playing on this court, and knows it well, being a regular fixture in the draw and having won multiple matches in the past. With a positive mindset hopefully he can continue the good match play with another win here in Dubai.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Lorenzo Sonego vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Moneyline: Bernabe Zapata Miralles, 2.75 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Lorenzo Sonego comes from Doha with a loss while Zapata has a few wins under his belt on his surface. I can understand why the odds are set the way they are but Sonego's ranking is a mirage and I think the the Spaniard can get another upset moving forward this tournament. I think again, the opponent is overrated on this surface and whilst Millman did have a collapse I think Zapata has enough confidence to put a challenge to the more experienced Sonego.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-21, 06:52 AM

6 - 6 - 0, (+0.475u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Marton Fuscovics vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Set Handicap: Marton Fucsovics -1.5 Sets, 2.79 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Fucsovics had a tough time dispatching Pospisil in three sets but I think with the match under his belt he can feel confident going into a match against a player who hasn't played since the Australian Open. Fucsovics has reached the Final of Rotterdam and the QF of Doha so he's had some conditioning and match practice and I think the conditions should favour the aggressive minded style of Fucsovics here.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Kei Nishikori vs David Goffin
Moneyline: Kei Nishikori, 2.37 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Should be a great match. Nishikori has a style that can give Goffin fits and he's built some form coming into this tournament with back to back wins at Rotterdam. Goffin hasn't had much good fortune here in Dubai and is facing another tough draw first up in an opponent that's capable of beating him.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Andrey Rublev vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Total Games: Under 20 Games, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

There is quite a bit of disparity in talent and playmaking ability between these two. Ruusuvuori is still pretty inconsistent and has built up a nice batch of wins coming into this matchup, but Rublev is a different beast to his competition and should account for him comfortably, continuing on his mission in ATP 500 events with a plausible draw.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R2
Matthew Ebden vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Games: Under 19.5 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Similar to the above matchup there is quite the gap in talent here, but Bautista in the past has been a bad matchup for Ebden who at best is a challenge level player. He had a nice run in Marsielle but those runs are too far and few in between. Bautista has made two finals this year and has had success in Dubai in the past. Expecting him to continue that today.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-21, 06:52 PM

7 - 7 - 2, (+0.845u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoe
Moneyline: Brandon Nakashima, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

It seems like not much is separating these two at the moment, with Nakashima hitting some nice form and being able to string a few wins together when he has had the opportunity on hard courts in the States. They had a close one in the Dallas Challenger last time they met and I expect Nakashima to put up a stern challenge again.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-16-21, 09:50 PM

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R1
Adrian Mannarino vs Grigor Dimitrov
Set Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -1.5 Sets, 2.40 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

It's a tough match to gauge with Dimitrov having not played since the Australian Open but it appears he's healthy now and looking to get some wins under his belt in a tournament and surface he has done well at in the past. Mannarino's wins haven't really come against great competition to happy to take the better odds on offer for Dimitrov in this match up.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 03:01 AM

8 - 8 - 2, (+1.245u)

Had to do a double take as to why I got paid for the Dimitrov match. Turns out line bets and totals are voided. Which was a surprise because it's up to their discretion.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R3
Jeremy Chardy vs Karen Khachanov
Moneyline: Jeremy Chardy, 2.37 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Aside from being unlucky to draw Djokovic in R1 in the Australian Open, Chardy has had a pretty good start to 2021. He seems to have fixed up his backhand and has the service game to be competitive even though Khachanov is the better mover and from the baseline. However he can be inconsistent at times and easily frustrated. A form player like Chardy should provide a stern challenge.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 03:27 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R3
Kei Nishikori vs Aljaz Bedene
Set Handicap: Kei Nishikori -1.5 Sets, 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Have to take the inflated Set Handicap odds on Nishikori, won 4 straight sets against opposition that isn't considered easy, whilst being tested by Opelka's large serves and Goffin's groundstrokes. Bedene's game is a bit better suited to clay and he probably won't have the firepower to hit through Nishikori on this surface. His confidence looks to be building with each win and I'm happy to back that again over his perceived injury issues he's had in the past.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 06:25 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R3
Aslan Karatsev vs Lorenzo Sonego
Set Handicap: Aslan Karatsev -1.5 Sets, 2.71 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 07:10 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R3
Janik Sinner vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Moneyline: Janik Sinner, 2.14 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**MOBIL19** · 03-17-21, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, R3
Janik Sinner vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Moneyline: Janik Sinner, 2.14 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Nice work! How do I subscribe and get notification when you post these? Need to get on all of them winners

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by MOBIL19

Nice work! How do I subscribe and get notification when you post these? Need to get on all of them winners

Thanks, I believe there is something at the top of the thread where you get an email when I post but can't remember. I'd personally wait until the sample size is bigger but that's just me!

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 04:07 PM

11 - 9 - 2, (+3.925u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R2
Sebastian Korda vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Set Handicap: Felix Auger-Aliassime -1.5 Sets, 2.60 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Had a good chance to watch these guys so far, and whilst Korda was pretty impressive against Cilic not letting it get to him mentally from being down 2-5 in the first set, and I have him pegged for great things, possible a future slam champion I think he was still pretty flawed and sprayed some uncharacteristic errors. Felix has been much more polished in recent times and will be much tougher to break then Cilic, his big serve in this match up will be under estimated and I think the odds are worth a play here with the public perhaps overrating Korda a little in this matchup.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 06:33 PM

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R2
Dominik Koepfer vs Milos Raonic
Moneyline: Dominik Koepfer, 6.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Taking a stab at a ML play that in my opinion is a bit overs based off Raonic's shaky form. Koepfer despite not playing someone tough in the first round showed he can blast winners over the court and hopefully serve well enough here to give this matchup a shake. Even though on paper Raonic is the better player he is also a poor returner, and didn't do a great job of converting his BP chances in his previous match. He's also suffered from some shaky lapses which has led to him dropping sets so happy to take those odds on offer here.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 08:17 PM

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R2
Tallon Greikspoor vs Casper Ruud
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

It is tempting to back Griekspoor to get a third straight win over Casper Ruud, but i'll take something else I'm pretty confident in, expecting a tough match with Griekspoor having played a few matches through qualifying. Ruud has improved his game on hard courts since then but I feel like this won't be as easy as his first opponent.

**Conqueror** · 03-17-21, 08:28 PM

Congrats on Koepfer!

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Congrats on Koepfer!

Thanks! it's good to hit a big fish after a few days and a slow start

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 10:21 PM

14 - 9 - 2, (+12.355u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R2
Fabio Fognini vs Cameron Norrie
Moneyline: Cameron Norrie, 2.23 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

There isn't as big of a difference in what odds I think this matchup should be in comparison to other matches that I've bet on where I thought the value was much higher and wagered accordingly, but here based off current form and ability I think Fognini is too short so will get on the other side accordingly. He was pretty fortunate to escape from his first round match, nearly losing the first set whilst Norrie has played some alright matches in 2021 so far and this surface should help his chances here.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-17-21, 10:56 PM

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, R2
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs John Isner
Moneyline: John Isner, 4.55 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I've been thinking about this one since Isner won his match yesterday in fine fashion, having not played for a while. Granted the opposition wasn't as high quality but Tsitsipas played Benoit Paire who looked like he had no interest in winning his match yesterday so it's even more of a Bye then Isner's match was. Although Carusco tried but didn't really trouble Isner on serve aside from perhaps one or two games. Tsitsipas has struggled, and lost against big servers in 2021 to date even though I like his all round game, the odds and little data we have present value behind Isner's serving and motivation where he likes playing on this surface. Even if Tsitsipas falls here he will no doubt have one eye on Miami and a pretty open draw not including Nadal, Federer or Thiem.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-18-21, 01:48 AM

15 - 10 - 2, (+12.585u)

Isner was definitely a mistake. Just looked completed flat out there and could barely move, not really chasing every ball. Be interesting to follow in Miami.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, QF
Jeremy Chardy vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Jeremy Chardy, 3.66 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Chardy continues his good 2021 run in Dubai hanging in tough after losing the opening set tiebreak to Khachanov. He's been able to find a way to get plenty of free points from his serving and despite Shapovalov's comfortable win, I felt that Hurkacz didn't offer much. He can also falter at these stages of tournaments and with everything in mind I think his ML odds are way too short considering his opponents form.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, QF
Lloyd George Harris vs Kei Nishikori
Handicap: Kei Nishikori -1, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Lloyd Harris had a good run going into this tournament from Qualifying including an impressive victory against Thiem, but I do question Thiem's motivation of having potentially one eye on clay season having withdrawn from Miami. Nishikori has also had a good run here beating some good opposition, and not dropping a set either. For reasons I mentioned earlier Nishikori is the better player and should be able to handle Harris and his run in this matchup.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-18-21, 07:28 AM

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, QF
Janik Sinner vs Aslan Karatsev
Set Handicap: Janik Sinner -1.5 Sets, 2.43 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

An interesting matchup though from what I've seen I prefer Sinner after his impressive win against multiple Finalist Bautista Agut. Karatsev is playing well but Sinner has played tougher players and has the higher ceiling. He showed what he could do in 2020 and needs to continue to do that in 2021, especially on hard courts. He's had some tough draw luck but shown he can tough out these wins against in form opposition.

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, QF
Andrey Rublev vs Marton Fucsovics
Total Games: Under 21 Games, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

There is quite a bit of data to go around these two and their matchup having played in Rotterdam and receiving a walkover in Doha. Normally I'm not as keen taking the same player because it has been proven the other player makes adjustments but Rublev has been an unstoppable beast in Hardcourt 500 level tournaments and I think that continues with Fucsovics continuing to have no answers.

**Jeff_Black** · 03-18-21, 05:52 PM

16 - 13 - 2, (+9.585u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, QF
Casper Rudd vs Alexander Zverev
Total Games: Under 21 Games, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Whilst Ruud has made some improvements to his game, I don't think he has the necessary weapons or a big weapon to trouble the much more complete player Zverev here. His side of the draw is pretty open here and as a former finalist whos game suits this surface he shouldn't have many problems navigating this match.

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, QF
Cameron Norrie vs Dominik Koepfer
Handicap: Cameron Norrie -2.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both guys may find themselves to be surprised they've made it to the QF of an ATP 500 event but they also both deserve it. I'll give Norrie the edge as I think Koepfer will struggle to handle his baseline game and experience a bit of a letdown after upsetting Raonic.