2pm est Croatia ATP Umag
This line was +275 about 15 mins ago. After analyzing the situation I checked it again at +260
so it might even fall more. I got +260.
Alcaraz is a young player without much history. He's beaten Pouille (2-1), Martin (2-0), Krajinovic (2-1),
and Ramos-Vinolas (2-0) to reach the Finals in his side of the draw. At 18 this is his first year on ATP level
where he is 15-11. His rank is 73.
Gasquet is an aging star at 35, but he's been having a good clay season in Europe. Ranks 59. Having a quicker draw at Umag, he's beaten Gianessi (2-0), Dzumhur (2-0), and Altamier (2-1) to reach the Final.
I don't know what the linesmen are thinking here, except that they want to fade Gasquet due to his age, or the bettors are taking Alcaraz on excitement over his future star prospects. The only other possibility is with Gasquet's 2-1 victory yesterday going 3 sets, and Alcaraz only 2 sets, he'll be more fresh.
There is value in Gas Can. Alcaraz is overbought. Alcaraz has lost to the players with histories like Gasquet's, and beaten only the more middling guys, unless you count Lopez who is like ancient now (will be 40 in Sept)
Of course there is risk that Gasquet will tire later on. But this is a Finals and a Night Match (8 pm local).
Another plus for us bettors is that with the odds on Gas Can so high, we are likely to have a live arb out at profit.
This line was +275 about 15 mins ago. After analyzing the situation I checked it again at +260
so it might even fall more. I got +260.
Alcaraz is a young player without much history. He's beaten Pouille (2-1), Martin (2-0), Krajinovic (2-1),
and Ramos-Vinolas (2-0) to reach the Finals in his side of the draw. At 18 this is his first year on ATP level
where he is 15-11. His rank is 73.
Gasquet is an aging star at 35, but he's been having a good clay season in Europe. Ranks 59. Having a quicker draw at Umag, he's beaten Gianessi (2-0), Dzumhur (2-0), and Altamier (2-1) to reach the Final.
I don't know what the linesmen are thinking here, except that they want to fade Gasquet due to his age, or the bettors are taking Alcaraz on excitement over his future star prospects. The only other possibility is with Gasquet's 2-1 victory yesterday going 3 sets, and Alcaraz only 2 sets, he'll be more fresh.
There is value in Gas Can. Alcaraz is overbought. Alcaraz has lost to the players with histories like Gasquet's, and beaten only the more middling guys, unless you count Lopez who is like ancient now (will be 40 in Sept)
Of course there is risk that Gasquet will tire later on. But this is a Finals and a Night Match (8 pm local).
Another plus for us bettors is that with the odds on Gas Can so high, we are likely to have a live arb out at profit.