Semper Fi Tennis Picks

**Conqueror** · 07-06-24, 03:04 PM

What happened to Swiatek?

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-06-24, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by Conqueror

What happened to Swiatek?

Exactly, she’s literally the only one that ruined what would’ve been a perfect Wimbledon day for me! Grass is by far her worst surface, and I was planning on fading her eventually in later rounds, just didn’t think Putintseva had enough firepower to do it - Swiatek had completely owned her before now! Swiatek just wasn’t herself today at all, committed 38 unforced errors the entire match. Still happy with today’s results of course but she was the one I was least worried about of all my plays!

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-06-24, 10:57 PM

Can’t Believe Swiatek Screwed Us!

ATP:
T. Fritz -4.5 (-138) W +2u
T. Fritz 3-0 set score (+140) W +1.4u
G. Mpetshi Perricard ML (-140) W +2u
G. Mpetshi Perricard -2.5 (+125) W +1.25u
H. Rune/Q. Halys Over 39.5 (-115) W +2u

5-0 +8.65u

WTA:
D. Collins -2.5 (-118) W +2u
D. Collins -1.5 sets (+142) W +1.42u
I. Swiatek/Y. Putintseva Under 19.5 (-118) L -2.36u

2-1 +1.06u

Parlay of the Day:

T. Fritz -1.5 sets/ W
G. Mpetshi Perricard ML/ W
H. Rune/Q. Halys over 3.5 sets/ W
D. Collins ML/ W
I. Swiatek -1.5 sets L0-1 -0.5u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-06-24, 11:49 PM

Sun July 7th

ATP:
T. Paul -6.5 (+101) 2u
T. Paul -2.5 sets (+101) 1u
G. Dimitrov ML (+113) 2u
G. Dimitrov/D. Medvedev Over 43 (+104) 2u

WTA:
M. Keys -3.5 (-117) 2u
M. Keys -1.5 sets (+111) 2u

Parlay of the Day:

T. Paul -1.5 sets (-272)/
G. Dimitrov/D. Medvedev Over 3.5 sets (-234)/
M. Keys -1.5 sets (+111)

(+312) 1u

GL everybody, let’s keep this gravy train rolling!

**navyblue81** · 07-07-24, 03:25 PM

Put a lot of money on Gauff today. I am just shell shocked how bad she looked. Ugh.

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-07-24, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by navyblue81

Put a lot of money on Gauff today. I am just shell shocked how bad she looked. Ugh.

That match was a clear stay-away one for me! Conventional wisdom said Gauff was the much better player on paper - but I came to realize very early in my tennis betting journey that conventional wisdom almost never applies with WTA (look at Swiatek’s collapse yesterday)!

FWIW had I bet anything on it I probably would’ve taken the over, just feeling that Navarro could at least take a set.

Anyway let’s get it back tomorrow my friend!

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-07-24, 10:56 PM

Well I can’t say I’m disappointed with today’s results considering it could’ve been much worse if not for the 2 retirements! Keys’ leg injury looked particularly horrible, but her retirement at the end of the 3rd set certainly saved us from those losses. I’ll be sure to update my record once I have more time tomorrow, just wanted to get out the plays for now!

Mon July 8th

ATP:
L. Musetti/G. Mpetshi Perricard Over 44.5 (-112) 3u
L. Musetti/G. Mpetshi Perricard Total Tie Breaks Over 1.5 (-154) 1u
T. Fritz/A. Zverev Over 44.5 (-102) 3u
T. Fritz/A. Zverev Total Tie Breaks Over 1.5 (-136) 1u
T. Fritz/A. Zverev Total Sets Over 4.5 (+195) 1u
H. Rune/N. Djokovic Over 39.5 (-128) 2u

WTA:
E. Svitolina -3.5 (-114) 2u
E. Svitolina -1.5 sets (+126) 1u
Y. Putintseva/J. Ostapenko Over 22.5 (-112) 2u
Y. Putintseva/J. Ostapenko Total Sets Over 2.5 (+130) 1u
D. Collins -3.5 (-104) 2u

Parlay of the Day:
Musetti/Perricard Over 3.5 sets/
Fritz/Zverev Over 3.5 sets/
Rune/Djokovic Over 3.5 sets/
Svitolina -1.5 sets/
Putintseva/Ostapenko Over 2.5 sets/
Collins ML

(+2202) 0.5u

**ninjagorn** · 07-08-24, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

That match was a clear stay-away one for me! Conventional wisdom said Gauff was the much better player on paper - but I came to realize very early in my tennis betting journey that conventional wisdom almost never applies with WTA (look at Swiatek’s collapse yesterday)!

FWIW had I bet anything on it I probably would’ve taken the over, just feeling that Navarro could at least take a set.

Anyway let’s get it back tomorrow my friend!

It seems that i always bet on Gauff when she has PMS or other personal issues...

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-08-24, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Sun July 7th

ATP:
T. Paul -6.5 (+101) W +2.01u
T. Paul -2.5 sets (+101) W +1.01u
G. Dimitrov ML (+113) 2u Push/Cancelled (Retirement)G. Dimitrov/D. Medvedev Over 43 (+104) 2u Push/Cancelled (Retirement)

2-0 +3.02u
WTA:
M. Keys -3.5 (-117) 2u Push/Cancelled (Retirement)
M. Keys -1.5 sets (+111) 2u Push/Cancelled (Retirement)

Parlay of the Day:

T. Paul -1.5 sets (-272)/
G. Dimitrov/D. Medvedev Over 3.5 sets (-234)/
M. Keys -1.5 sets (+111)

W +0.37u

GL everybody, let’s keep this gravy train rolling!

We had a couple fortuitous retirements to keep us in the black yesterday - not much profit but still profit nonetheless!

Overall Record: 10-2 +12.6u
ATP: 7-0 +11.67u
WTA: 2-1 +1.06
Parlays: 1-1 -0.13u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-08-24, 05:14 PM

Today wasn’t so good, finally experienced my first losing day of Wimbledon. I’m upset with myself for not trusting Fritz enough to take him pre-match, though I did place a small wager on him live after he lost the first 2 sets. I honestly probably make over half my tennis profits with live wagers, but I won’t count them toward my totals as I don’t have enough time during the day to post them and even if I did I’m sure many wouldn’t be able to see them in time! Zverev is a notorious choker, and though I fully expected him to drop the 3rd set I didn’t see Fritz completely taking over the match like he did and dominating him! Rune has beaten Djokovic twice before and I expected him to at least take a set from Joker but he didn’t even show up today. It was the same with the ladies, Putintseva couldn’t handle Ostapenko and Collins should’ve retired when she was hurt late in the 2nd set, would’ve saved us some money! Anyway here is my updated record, we’ll be back to grinding and turn it around tomorrow back to black!

Mon July 8th

ATP:
L. Musetti/G. Mpetshi Perricard Over 44.5 (-112) L -3.36u
L. Musetti/G. Mpetshi Perricard Total Tie Breaks Over 1.5 (-154) L -1.54u
T. Fritz/A. Zverev Over 44.5 (-102) W +3u
T. Fritz/A. Zverev Total Tie Breaks Over 1.5 (-136) W +1u
T. Fritz/A. Zverev Total Sets Over 4.5 (+195) W +1.95u
H. Rune/N. Djokovic Over 39.5 (-128) L -2.56u

3-3 -1.51u

WTA:
E. Svitolina -3.5 (-114) W +2u
E. Svitolina -1.5 sets (+126) W +1.26u
Y. Putintseva/J. Ostapenko Over 22.5 (-112) L -2.24u
Y. Putintseva/J. Ostapenko Total Sets Over 2.5 (+130) L -1u
D. Collins -3.5 (-104) L -2.08u

2-3 -2.06u

Parlay of the Day:
Musetti/Perricard Over 3.5 sets/
Fritz/Zverev Over 3.5 sets/
Rune/Djokovic Over 3.5 sets/
Svitolina -1.5 sets/
Putintseva/Ostapenko Over 2.5 sets/
Collins ML

(+2202) L -0.5u

Overall: 15-9 +8.53u
ATP: 10-3 +10.16u
WTA: 4-4 -1u
Parlays: 1-2 -0.63u

**Conqueror** · 07-08-24, 05:19 PM

Stuff happens in this business.
Get'em next time.

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-08-24, 11:01 PM

Time to bounce back after a tough day today, let’s get it!

Tues July 9th

ATP:
J. Sinner -5.5 (+103) 2u
J. Sinner -1.5 Sets (-190) 2u
J. Sinner -2.5 Sets (+156) 1u
C. Alcaraz/T. Paul Over 38.5 (-111) 3u
C. Alcaraz/T. Paul Total Tie Breaks Over 0.5 (-185) 2u

WTA:
L. Sun/D. Vekic Over 22 (+109) 2u
L. Sun/D. Vekic Total Sets Over 2.5 (+154) 1u
E. Navarro -3.5 (+106) 3u
E. Navarro -1.5 Sets (+133) 2u

Parlay of the Day:
J. Sinner -1.5 Sets/
C. Alcaraz/T. Paul Over 3.5 Sets/
E. Navarro -1.5 Sets

(+470) 1u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-09-24, 11:26 PM

It was an absolute bloodbath for me today, capped off by Tommy Paul being unable to win 3 games of the 4th set and getting broken twice! I’ll update the record tomorrow, on to tomorrow’s plays now!

ATP:
T. Fritz -5.5 (+112) 3u
T. Fritz 3-0 Correct Set Score (+150) 1u
A. De Minaur/N. Djokovic Over 38.5 (-113) 2u
A. De Minaur/N. Djokovic Tie Break Over 0.5 (-176) 1u

WTA:
J. Ostapenko -3.5 (-109) 3u
J. Ostapenko -1.5 Sets (+118) 2u
E. Rybakina/E. Svitolina Over 22 (+105) 2u
E. Rybakina/E. Svitolina Over 2.5 Sets (+153) 2u

Parlay of the Day:
T. Fritz -1.5 Sets/
A. De Minaur/N. Djokovic Over 3.5 sets/
J. Ostapenko -3.5

(+336) 1u

GL all - may tomorrow be infinitely better than today!

**Conqueror** · 07-10-24, 12:44 PM

The upsets and counter-upsets are now complete.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 07-10-24, 12:50 PM

Ouch what a bloodbath today

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-11-24, 07:30 AM

Another tough day yesterday, let’s get back on track with the women’s semifinal today!

WTA:
Vekic/Paoloni Over 23 (+116) 3u
Vekic/Paoloni Over 2.5 Sets (+127) 2u
Vekic 2-1 Set Score (+490) 1u
Paolini 2-1 Set Score (+280) 1u
Rybakina -5 (+117) 2u
Rybalina -1.5 Sets (-158) 3u

Parlay of the Day:
Vekic ML/
E. Rybakina -1.5 Sets

(+287) 2u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-11-24, 07:40 AM

Hoping Paolini wins the 1st - if that happens I’ll be taking Vekic live for 1u as long as line is at least +300.
Same if Vekic wins 1st set, I’ll take Paolini 1u if line is at least +250.

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-11-24, 08:16 AM

Live:
Paolini ML (+275) 1u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-11-24, 09:42 AM

The live play on Paolini earlier was more just a hedge for the parlay that has Vekic ML - now no matter who wins we’ll earn close to the same profits, I may make another half wager on Paolini if she goes down another break in this final set!

It’s been an absolute bloodbath for me the last couple days, so today’s start is just what we needed for a nice bounce back - hopefully Rybakina can make this day even more profitable in the 2nd semifinal match!

Here is my updated record after those horrendous days:

Overall: 17-24 -19.94u
ATP: 10-10 -7.67u
WTA: 6-10 -9.64u
Parlays: 1-4 -2.63u

Overall I’m personally still up a little from my hot start in the earlier rounds (not counting those since I didn’t start posting here yet) and live wagers - and yes any type of profit is still profit no matter how small - but it’s certainly been a disappointing Wimbledon for me so far compared to past major tournaments! All I can do is keep grinding away, it’s a marathon after all right?

Let’s continue getting our winning form back!

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-12-24, 07:49 AM

ATP:
C. Alcaraz -5.5 (+102) 3u
C. Alcaraz -2.5 Sets (+158) 2u
L. Musetti/N. Djokovic Under 35 (-111) 3u
N. Djokovic 3-0 Set Score -110 (3u)

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-12-24, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Another tough day yesterday, let’s get back on track with the women’s semifinal today!

WTA:
Vekic/Paoloni Over 23 (+116) W +3.48u
Vekic/Paoloni Over 2.5 Sets (+127) W +2.54u
Vekic 2-1 Set Score (+490) L -1u
Paolini 2-1 Set Score (+280) W +2.8u
Rybakina -5 (+117) 2u L -2u
Rybalina -1.5 Sets (-158) L -4.74u
Live Wager:
Paolini (+280) W +2.75u
Parlay of the Day:
Vekic ML/
E. Rybakina -1.5 Sets

L -2u

Well it was a much better day than previous days, though Rybakina ruined the 2nd half of the day for us. But still needed up with a tiny profit which is all that matters at the end of the day!

Overall: 21-28 -18.11u
ATP: 10-10 -7.67u
WTA: 9-13 -8.56u
Parlays: 1-5 -4.63u
Live: 1-0 +2.75u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-15-24, 12:43 PM

I didn’t get the chance to post my Wimbledon championship picks before they started, but for the ladies I had the Over games and 2.5 sets (as well as 2-1 set scores for each) so made a little on those. I also had the Over and 3.5 sets for Alcaraz/Joker and lost a lot on that, didn’t expect Alcaraz to dominate him like he did! Anyway I won’t count those in my record of course since I didn’t post them - just wanted to get a few plays out for today, I’ll update my record from the ATP semifinal later.

ATP Newport:
C. Lestienne/R. Opelka Over 23.5 (-105) 2u
C. Lestienne/R. Opelka Over 2.5 Sets (+119) 1u
A. Vukic -4.5 (-123) 2u
A. Vukic 2-0 Set Score (-210) 1u

Parlay:
Lestienne/Opelka Over 23.5/
A. Vukic 2-0 Set Score

(+188) 1u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-15-24, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

ATP:
C. Alcaraz -5.5 (+102) W +3.02uC. Alcaraz -2.5 Sets (+158) L -2u
L. Musetti/N. Djokovic Under 35 (-111) W +3u
N. Djokovic 3-0 Set Score (-110) +3u

Overall: 24-29 -11.09u
ATP: 13-11 -0.65u
WTA: 9-13 -8.56u
Parlays: 1-5 -4.63u
Live: 1-0 +2.75u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-15-24, 10:30 PM

What a start for the new tournaments, really needed that nice bounce back after the less than stellar Wimbledon finish!

ATP Newport:
C. Lestienne/R. Opelka Over 23.5 (-105) W +2u
C. Lestienne/R. Opelka Over 2.5 Sets (+119) W +1.19u
A. Vukic -4.5 (-123) W +2u
A. Vukic 2-0 Set Score (-210) W +1u

Parlay:
Lestienne/Opelka Over 23.5/
A. Vukic 2-0 Set Score

W +1.88u

Overall: 29-29 -3.02u
ATP: 17-11 +5.54u
WTA: 9-13 -8.56u
Parlays: 2-5 -2.75u
Live: 1-0 +2.75u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-15-24, 11:48 PM

Here are some early plays for tomorrow, may add more later if I get the chance while at work!

ATP Hamburg (Germany):
L. Darderi -3 (+103) 2u
D. Lajovic -1.5 (+100) 2u
S. Ofner -2.5 (-104) 2u
H. Rune -3.5 (-113) 2u

ATP Bastad (Sweden):
A. Muller -1.5 Sets (-195) 2u
E. Ymer ML (+143) 2u

ATP Gstaad (Switzerland):
M. Berrettini -4 (-116) 2u
M. Berrettini -1.5 Sets (-173) 2u
S. Wawrinka -2 (+101) 3u

WTA Budapest (Hungary):
B. Pera -1.5 Sets (-109) 2u

WTA Palermo (Italy):
D. Parry -3.5 (-101) 2u
Q. Zheng -1.5 Sets (-197) 2u

**Conqueror** · 07-16-24, 04:03 AM

BOL!

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-16-24, 03:46 PM

ATP Newport (U.S.)
E. Spizzirri/L.Tu Over 21.5 (-123) 2u
B. Nakashima -1.5 Sets (-160) 2u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-16-24, 05:20 PM

Live WTA Palermo:
A. Li (+812) 0.5u

**Conqueror** · 07-16-24, 05:21 PM

Liking Opelka tomorrow. What say you?

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-16-24, 05:24 PM

Live WTA Palermo:
A. Li/P. Stearns Over 21.5 (+468) .5u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-16-24, 05:28 PM

Yes I was nervous betting on his match yesterday bc I wasn’t sure what to expect with him coming back from injury but Opelka looked real good yesterday - I’m definitely taking him against Mannarino, and probably the over as well, bound to be at least one tie break between two great servers!

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-16-24, 09:24 PM

ATP Hamburg (Germany):
L. Darderi -3 (+103) Push (walkover)
D. Lajovic -1.5 (+100) W +2u
S. Ofner -2.5 (-104)Push (retirement)
H. Rune -3.5 (-113) W +2u

ATP Bastad (Sweden):
A. Muller -1.5 Sets (-195) L -3.9u
E. Ymer ML (+143) L -2u

ATP Gstaad (Switzerland):
M. Berrettini -4 (-116) L -2u
M. Berrettini -1.5 Sets (-173) W +2u
S. Wawrinka -2 (+101) -3u

WTA Budapest (Hungary):
B. Pera -1.5 Sets (-109) -2.18u

WTA Palermo (Italy):
D. Parry -3.5 (-101) L -2u
Q. Zheng -1.5 Sets (-197) W +2u

ATP Newport (U.S.)
E. Spizzirri/L.Tu Over 21.5 (-123) L -2.46u
B. Nakashima -1.5 Sets (-160) W +2u

Live WTA Palermo:
A. Li (+812) W +4.06u
Live WTA Palermo:
A. Li/P. Stearns Over 21.5 (+468) W +2.34u

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-16-24, 11:58 PM

Wed July 17th

ATP Hamburg:
L. Darderi -3.5 (-118) 2u
P. Martinez -3.5 (-129) 2u
D. Lajovic/S. Baez Over 22.5 (+107) 2u
D. Lajovic/S. Baez Over 2.5 Sets (+146) 2u

ATP Bastad:
C. Ruud -1.5 Sets (-194) 2u

ATP Gstaad:
Varillas/Fognini Over 23.5 (+109) 2u
Varillas/Fognini Over 2.5 Sets (+127) 2u
Medjedovic +3.5 (-140) 2u
Medjedovic ML (+203) 1u
Struff/Reidi Over 23 (+107) 2u
Struff/Reidi Over 1.5 Sets (+151) 2u

WTA Budapest:
Sorribes Tormo -3.5 (+107) 2u

WTA Palermo:
Andreeva -3.5 (+101) 2u
Andreeva -1.5 Sets (+137) 2u

I’ll update my record from earlier today as well as post some ATP Newport picks later tomorrow!

**Semper Fidelis** · 07-17-24, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

ATP Hamburg (Germany):
L. Darderi -3 (+103) Push (walkover)
D. Lajovic -1.5 (+100) W +2u
S. Ofner -2.5 (-104)Push (retirement)
H. Rune -3.5 (-113) W +2u

ATP Bastad (Sweden):
A. Muller -1.5 Sets (-195) L -3.9u
E. Ymer ML (+143) L -2u

ATP Gstaad (Switzerland):
M. Berrettini -4 (-116) L -2u
M. Berrettini -1.5 Sets (-173) W +2u
S. Wawrinka -2 (+101) -3u

WTA Budapest (Hungary):
B. Pera -1.5 Sets (-109) -2.18u

WTA Palermo (Italy):
D. Parry -3.5 (-101) L -2u
Q. Zheng -1.5 Sets (-197) W +2u

ATP Newport (U.S.)
E. Spizzirri/L.Tu Over 21.5 (-123) L -2.46u
B. Nakashima -1.5 Sets (-160) W +2u

Live WTA Palermo:
A. Li (+812) W +4.06u
Live WTA Palermo:
A. Li/P. Stearns Over 21.5 (+468) W +2.34u

Overall: 36-36 -4.5u
ATP: 21-16 -0.14u
WTA: 10-15 -10.76u
Parlays: 2-5 -2.75u
Live: 3-0 +9.15u