How Sportsbooks are Manipulating MLB MVP Odds

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 5 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Shohei Ohtani, nicknamed "Shotime", is a Japanese professional baseball pitcher, designated hitter and outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels of MLB. Photo by Daisuke Tomita/Yomiuri/The Yomiuri Shimbun via AFP.

Who will win the AL MVP award: Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani?

Although it is an interesting debate and one that tends to favor Judge, I would like to draw your attention to something I noticed the sportsbooks are doing.

This isn't a discussion of WAR, or an argument about how Aaron Judge shouldn't be able to win the AL MVP until he also boasts a 2.35 ERA. Rather, this is an examination of how sportsbooks are manipulating the MVP futures markets during the final week of the season.

Even though Judge appears to be a clear favorite to win the AL MVP award, every sportsbook has left up its AL MVP odds. In the NL, Paul Goldschmidt appears to be extremely vulnerable to losing his spot as the favorite, yet the majority of sportsbooks have removed the NL MVP odds from their site.

Let's take a closer look at how the sportsbooks are handling MLB MVP futures markets – and why it is a distasteful practice.

Why is Shohei Ohtani Priced so Short?

At Caesars on Tuesday, Judge was priced at -200000 to win the AL MVP. That's a pretty healthy favorite; you just have to bet $200,000 to win $100. The odds of -200000 imply that Judge has a 99.95% chance of winning the AL MVP award.

Using that logic, Ohtani has a 0.05% chance of winning. Because of the aggressive pricing on Judge, I now have the opportunity to wager on Ohtani at +200000, correct? Guess again. Ohtani was only available at +1900. Compared to Judge's pricing, Ohtani's price is just +181000 less than it should be; NBD, right?

Sportsbooks have created a scenario where they do not believe they can lose. Judge appears to be the clear winner of the award, so they will price him at -200000 so they do not take any further action on him while still allowing people to back Ohtani, which they consider to be a successful venture.

Just in case Ohtani does pull off the miracle upset, they are not providing anywhere near the value they should. There is an extremely low risk for the sportsbooks to leave this market live at these prices and manipulate a very favorable outcome for them.

Where are the NL MVP Odds?

The NL MVP race is shifting, with Goldschmidt is gradually losing his chances of winning the award. As an MLB fan and a futures bettor, I would love to bet into this market at this time – but where are the odds?

Goldschmidt losing the award to a longshot play would be a disastrous outcome for the sportsbooks, so instead of adjusting their odds appropriately, they have decided to ghost the market altogether.

Simply put, this market has been pulled because it cannot easily be manipulated as the AL MVP. There are several viable NL MVP candidates chasing Goldschmidt, including Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, and Francisco Lindor. A handicapping situation like this is too risky in the final week of the season; most sportsbooks are likely already satisfied with their liabilities, so it is easier to just pull the market.

I would like to take this opportunity to recognize PointsBet, the only sportsbook that is not afraid to handicap the NL MVP market up until the end, while every other sportsbook is hiding. That's worth plenty of points for PointsBet – and more of my action in the future.

Sportsbook Reviews

Sportsbook Bonuses (U.S. Only)

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.