How to Identify NFL Value Bets

James Bisson provides insight into how NFL bettors can identify and take advantage of NFL value plays over the course of the season.

James Bisson

Last updated: September 5, 2023 8:30 AM EDT • 5 min read

When we're not guiding NFL players to our list of best sportsbooks or leading them to the best sportsbook promos available, we provide plenty of good advice on how to be a successful bettor. James Bisson offers some tips and strategies on how to ensure you're finding value plays based on the best NFL odds.

Show me an adult that doesn't love a good deal, and I'll show you a liar.

We all love locating a bargain, whether it's saving a few cents per gallon on gas or buying the showroom version of that piece of furniture you've always wanted. And if your approach to sports betting isn't similar, then friend, you're doing it wrong.

Finding the best NFL value plays isn't necessarily easy, though these tips will make it easier. And while we can give you the betting tools to assist in finding strong value options, how you approach these markets is ultimately up to you.

How to find NFL value bets

Use multiple sportsbooks

Imagine having a bevy of supermarket options and only ever using one – especially when others have the exact items you like for cheaper.

We might eventually run out of analogies for why you need multiple sportsbooks, but we'll never tire of explaining why this is so vital to finding value options. It's as simple as it gets: Having more of the best sports betting sites to choose from means more options for the markets you like to bet – and one of those sportsbooks is bound to have the best number of the group.

Even without doing a second of additional research, you can find the best price for a given bet simply by downloading every one of our best sports betting apps in your state. Once you've canvassed each of them, simply head to the one with the best price and make your bet. Great work, value hunter!

Check out our list of the top NFL prop betting sites here!

Rely on projections

You can get down a major rabbit hole with projection models and implied probability, but for the purposes of this guide, we're going to keep things simple.

Look for stat projections you trust, and consult them first. It actually helps to draw from multiple projection systems, since no one setup is perfect (and drawing from more than one will give you a better consensus number with which to work).

Once you have your projections wish list filled, build out a list of prop outcomes with the accompanying average projections – but be sure to limit your work to specific markets so you don't stretch yourself thin (a tip we'll expand upon later.)

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Compare numbers

It's now time to compare your average projections to the sportsbook totals. If you find a notable gap between your projected number and what the sportsbooks have listed, you might have stumbled upon a treasure.

Before locking in your wager, make sure you haven't missed out on any news or developments that might impact that player's projections. Sportsbooks almost always move more quickly on this than projection sites, so if the numbers seem off, it might be because your projection sites haven't updated their figures.

Also, don't simply check one or two sportsbooks and assume that, if their numbers don't offer any value compared with your projections, the others likely won't, either. Every sports betting site has its own trading team – and it only takes one mispriced line to validate all of your hard work. Check every sportsbook, every time.

Broaden your betting knowledge with our guide on how to bet on the NFL!

Favor quality over quantity

Regardless of how much time you can devote to NFL betting research, it's always good practice to focus on finding value in specific markets, rather than covering as much ground as possible.

The main reason for this: The thinner you spread your time and resources, the less likely you are to capitalize on existing value plays which are almost certain to disappear before you find them. "Jack of all trades, master of none" certainly applies here.

You should also consider that not all betting markets are set and monitored the same. Sports betting sites have so much ground to cover that they inevitably miss (or are slow in responding to) angles that you can exploit. The narrower your focus, the better the chance that you'll be able to move more quickly on a mispriced line than the sportsbook can.

The final reason for focusing on a smaller coverage area is that it allows you to pay closer attention to your process, and revise or tweak as needed. Self-evaluation is such an important part of becoming a stronger value hunter, especially when you first start out.

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Additional tips

Shop early. When it comes to betting, you should prioritize getting into markets early and trying to find inefficiencies. The goal is to be right on top of these numbers once they open, especially with the NFL opening odds and betting lines, where the action is significant.
Avoid "standard" markets. You can save yourself some time by not trying to find value in spreads, totals, or moneylines. These are generally the most popular wagers for any sport by a considerable margin and are therefore the tightest markets.
Cash out where and when you can. I'll let my friend Jon Metler explain in more detail, but by placing an initial bet, and then seeing the odds for that bet move in your favor, you can (with some books) cash out your original bet for a profit, then re-invest in the new number.

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Written By:
James Bisson

James Bisson is the Editor-in-Chief of Sportsbook Review. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, including a nine-year stint with The Canadian Press and more than five years at theScore. He has covered dozens of marquee events including the 2010 Winter Olympics, the 2006 Stanley Cup final and Wrestlemania 23, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian, Yahoo! Sports, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail. His book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008 and earned him appearances on CBC Radio and Canada AM. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews, more than 200 industry news articles and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles. A graduate of the broadcast journalism program at Ryerson University (now Toronto Metropolitan University), James has been an avid bettor since the early 2000s, and cites bet365 as his favorite sports betting site due to its superior functionality and quick payouts. His favorite piece of sports betting advice: "Stay in your lane. You're much more likely to have success betting sports you know, and focusing on finding angles and edges there."