Path to the Norris Trophy: Cale Makar vs. Roman Josi

When this NHL season started, Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar was the favorite to take home the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman.  

Makar finished second in the voting last season, behind the New York Rangers’ Adam Fox. Makar was priced at +400 on BetMGM at the start of the season, ahead of Fox (+600) and Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman (+600). 

The race that looked like it might have been over is down to two serious contenders this season. 

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Cale Makar (-120 via FanDuel) 

Makar is 23 years old, playing in his third NHL season. He is a brilliant skater and puck handler whose offensive contributions are changing the game. Makar has produced 26 goals and 55 assists for 81 points in 69 games this season. His 0.38 goals per game is the highest rate for a defenseman (minimum 50 games) since the Washington Capitals’ Mike Green scored 31 goals in 68 games (0.46 gpg) during the 2008-2009 season.  

Before this season, Ray Bourque’s 1.26 points per game in 1993-1994 was the last defenseman to record a higher mark than Makar’s 1.17 points per game in 2021-2022. 

At even strength this season, the Avalanche are outscoring opponents 98-53 with Makar on the ice. 

The only defenseman that has been on the ice for more goals for at even strength, Florida’s Mackenzie Weegar with 100, has been on the ice for 68 goals against. 

The Avalanche are a powerhouse of a team and Makar is a big reason why.

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Roman Josi (+115 via DraftKings) 

Of course, Josi has surpassed Makar’s points per game mark this season; the Nashville Predators captain has accumulated 19 goals and 68 assists for 87 points in 71 games (1.23 ppg).

Josi’s previous career-high in points was when he scored 65 points on his way to winning the Norris Trophy in the 2019-2020 season. He has obliterated that total this season, and his offensive explosion has happened rather suddenly. 

Since January 6, Josi has put up 57 points in 39 games and that includes being held off the scoresheet in each of his past three games! 

This unexpected scoring surge from Josi has taken a Norris Trophy race that looked like it would be a lock for Makar and turned it into the most compelling awards race down the stretch.   

The Predators have outscored the opposition 90-66 with Josi on the ice at even strength this season, so his on-ice results are very favorable, too. 

Season Odds Change 

While Makar was the favorite, at +400 to start the season, Josi was priced at +1500, so this is not as though he was some wild underdog choice - tied for the sixth shortest odds on BetMGM. 

Makar got off to such a great start, scoring 16 goals and 34 points in his first 29 games, that his odds had shifted into him becoming a solid favorite (+188) by mid-January. At that point, Josi was starting to take off offensively and was +1350.  

In mid-March, Makar was running away with the Norris, by the odds, priced at -305. He was the prohibitive favorite. But as Josi continued to pile up points and overtake Makar, his odds moved from as high as +1750 in March to where he is now a viable challenger to Makar with just a few weeks left in the season. 

Makar might still be the favorite, but it is close; close enough that what happens in the next couple of weeks could make the difference. 

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