Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

If Florida gets similar pressure on Reed this week, the dual threat quarterback is likely to use his legs more, and is a prime candidate to score his third rushing touchdown. As it stands, Reed is the only Aggies player aside from running back Le’Veon Moss with multiple rushing touchdowns this season.

Texas A&M showed its versatility last week, pulling away for a comfortable 22-point victory and cover as a 17.5-point favorite, despite Reed going just 2-for-8 for 20 yards in the first quarter (his lowest yardage total in any quarter this season).

Michigan only has three passing touchdowns this season, but McCulley is the recipient of one of them. USC allows 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, and McCulley is the focal point of the Michigan passing attack, with more receptions and receiving yards than any other player.

McRee is USC's third-leading receiver, but he has just one touchdown this season. However, he has a solid matchup today, as three of the six touchdown passes Michigan has allowed have been to tight ends.

Haynes has scored at least once in every game this season, as he already has eight rushing touchdowns. Haynes has three rushing touchdowns of at least 50 yards, so he's dangerous from anywhere on the field.

Justice Haynes is top 10 in the country in rushing TDs (8), rushing yards (654), and 15-plus-yard runs (9). That big play ability should come in handy against a USC defense that's just No. 62 in EPA per rush. Haynes has scored at least once in every game this season and at least twice in two of five games.

USC receiver Makai Lemon has been Jayden Maiava’s favorite target by far this season, as his 35 receptions make him the only Trojans pass catcher with more than 13 catches on the season. 

Jayden Maiava is the signal caller of a USC offense that ranks first nationally in Offensive SP+, as well as Success Rate (57.4%), points per drive (4.30), and yards per play (8.53). 

I expect Maiava to throw for multiple touchdowns as he faces a Michigan defense that ranks outside the top 50 in pass EPA allowed.

Haynes is a big part of a dominant ground game that ranks sixth in yards per carry (6.7) and 12th in rushing EPA. Wolverines rushers are also elite at generating production both before and after contact, averaging at least 3.26 yards in each split.

Haynes should have a field day against a USC defense that ranks outside the top 100 in rush efficiency and explosives allowed.

No receiver in the Power Four has been more productive than Makai Lemon this season. He leads the P4 in receiving yards (589) and ranks top 10 in the country in yards per route run (4.5), YAC (277), forced missed tackles on receptions (13), and first-down catches (24). Michigan's defense is good, but it sits No. 54 in EPA per pass, and Lemon should cause issues for it.

Underwood has struggled as a passer this year, but he has found an edge on the ground recently. In Week 3, he ran for 114 yards and two scores versus Central Michigan. The next week, he ran for 61 yards and a score at Nebraska. He was able to do plenty of damage through the air versus Wisconsin last week, but with his struggles as a passer when playing on the road, I expect him to compensate with some scrambles – and the coaching staff to compensate with some designed runs.

The biggest needle-mover has to be the quarterback split. USC’s Jayden Maiava ranks third nationally in passing efficiency (191.1) and second in passing yards per game (317.4). Michigan’s Bryce Underwood may add mobility, but he ranks 85th (130.1) and 75th (200.6) in those metrics. Worse, when playing on the road, Underwood’s passing efficiency plummets to 90.8 with just 123.5 passing yards per game.

These two programs couldn't be more different this season, with USC having a terrific offense and a struggling defense, while Michigan features an elite defense and an inconsistent offense. This is a bit of a toss-up, but the Trojans' offensive firepower should be the difference with Jayden Maiava, Makai Lemon, Ja'Kobi Lane, and Waymond Jordan having USC ranked No. 1 in SP+ on offense. Plus, a cross-country trip could be tough for Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood.

We’re getting Arnold at a rock-bottom price following a bad performance against Texas A&M. Arnold threw for only 125 yards in that contest on 33 attempts. That game dropped his season average to 169.2 passing yards per contest, so we’ll need him to improve that on Saturday to cash the Over. He should get that done versus this worse-than-usual Georgia secondary that ranks 99th in passing yards allowed per contest (251.3). Getting Arnold in a friendly home environment is also a big needle-mover for me. He is averaging 196.5 passing yards per contest over a two-game sample at Jordan-Hare. That includes an impressive 251-yard game in a blowout win over Ball State. While he may need his talented receivers to make a splash play or two to reach this number, that’s very possible. Georgia’s defense gave up a 38-yard gain to Kentucky’s Kendrick Law last week and multiple deep touchdowns to Tennessee’s receivers.

While Auburn hasn’t put it all together under head coach Hugh Freeze, the one-score road losses to Oklahoma and Texas A&M – two top 15 teams – are at least a step in the right direction. The Tigers’ solid defense kept each game competitive until late, but the offense couldn’t get enough on the board in tough road environments to win. The Tigers now return to Jordan-Hare Stadium and are coming off a bye for this game. Since Freeze’s arrival in 2023, Auburn is a solid 5-2 straight up with a rest advantage. While Georgia is a similar 3-0 with a rest disadvantage over that sample size, that also corresponds to an 0-3 record against the spread. This also isn’t the Georgia of yesteryear: the Bulldogs sit at 1-4 against the spread, and they failed to cover in their lone road game thus far. The secondary, once a strength, now ranks 71st in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3).

Jackson Arnold's inability to recognize pressure has killed his rushing numbers this season. The Auburn QB has rushed for 55 yards on 54 carries in his last four games. That's due in large part to the fact he's been sacked 14 times in two SEC games, finishing with a combined 35 carries for 0 yards in those games. Georgia's defense is No. 3 in EPA per rush, and Arnold should struggle again.

Williams is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and he's rushed for at least 57 yards in four of his five games this season. While Texas Tech has yet to allow a running back to rush for more than 43 yards, it has also won every game by at least 24 points. Kansas will keep this close, and Williams will rush at least 10 times for the fourth consecutive game.

Texas Tech boasts the second-highest scoring offense in the nation, while Kansas is averaging 35 points per game. While Texas Tech has held every opponent to 14 or fewer points, I expect that trend to end against a team that has scored at least 27 in every game.

Nussmeier has thrown more than one touchdown in just one game all season. South Carolina has allowed just four passing touchdowns this season, and only one quarterback has thrown more than one touchdown pass against them.

LSU has beaten just one power conference team by more than nine, and that came when they beat Florida by 10 in a game where the LSU defense forced five turnovers. South Carolina has only turned the ball over in one game all season, so their brand of mistake-free football will help them potentially pull the upset.

South Carolina’s offense ranks 117th in Havoc allowed, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers has been pressured on an absurd 43% of dropbacks this season. But while LSU’s defense ranks 28th in Havoc created, there are few quarterbacks I trust more under pressure than Sellers, who has overcome that to rank 15th in big time throw rate.

With Sam Leavitt likely out for Arizona State, Utah can control this game with its rushing attack. Washington State transfer Wayshawn Parker leads the team in yards from scrimmage (371), 10-plus-yard runs (8), and total touchdowns (5). He can dash through an Arizona State defense that's No. 112 in EPA per rush this season.

I expect Utah to challenge Arizona State early and often through the air. The Sun Devils rank eighth out of 134 teams in run defense, while this is a matchup of Utah’s 38th-ranked Team Passing Efficiency against Arizona State’s 63rd-ranked Team Passing Efficiency Defense.

The rightful favorite in this matchup is the unranked team against the ranked squad, as Utah is in the top 20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense. Arizona State has been playing with fire with three of its last four games decided by four or fewer points, and the more talented team should win by a more comfortable margin this weekend.