Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

Kansas has been a fast starter this season, out-scoring opponents by 39 points in the first half. Even in its 42-31 loss to Missouri in its last game, the Jayhawks played to a draw in the first half despite scoring 21 points in the first quarter. The Jayhawks had a week off to correct the things that went wrong in last week’s loss. And since 2022 under head coach Lance Leipold, Kansas has covered five of its six games off a bye. 

Though Harbor is the Gamecocks' leading receiver, he only has seven receptions. The low-volume passing attack will be problematic for him this week against a defense allowing just 100.0 passing yards per game.

Hardy has rushed for at least 100 yards in all three games this season, but he will struggle this week in his first real test, as he takes on a defense allowing just 3.0 yards per carry.

Norfleet leads the Tigers with three touchdown receptions, yet his price to score is much higher than other Tigers' receivers. Norfleet can score from anywhere on the field, as shown by his touchdown receptions of one, 11, and 27 yards, and he faces a defense that allowed two passing touchdowns last week.

One of the best running backs in the country, dating back to his time at UL Monroe, Ahmad Hardy is coming off a 250-yard rushing performance. Hardy leads the Power Four in rushing yards and has gone for 100-plus in each of his three games at Missouri. South Carolina has a strong defense, but it ranks outside the top 50 in EPA per rush this season. 

With the uncertainty around LaNorris Sellers, who left last week's loss to Vanderbilt with an injury, Missouri should win handily. The Tigers' offense has thrived behind transfers - QB Beau Pribula, running back Ahmad Hardy, wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. - and the defense is right there with it, thanks to Zion Young and Josiah Trotter. Missouri is ranked in the top 25 in SP+ on offense and defense for a reason.

Florida's defense isn't the problem this season, and it could create some problems for Miami, especially the Hurricanes' run game. The Gators are No. 3 in the country in EPA per rush on defense and holding opponents to just 3.0 yards per carry. Mark Fletcher Jr. averages only 14 carries per game and was held to 66 rushing yards by the only quality defense he's faced, Notre Dame. 

Carson Beck is rising up NFL Draft boards after recording 812 passing yards and total touchdowns, with two of his three games coming against ranked opponents. 

While Beck has the fourth-best QBR among FBS quarterbacks, this is worth a play at plus-money odds against a Florida defense that ranks a respectable seventh in the conference in Passing Plays Success Rate given its tough schedule. 

With a massive rivalry game on tap and Washington State hosting, it’s hard to turn down the generous 21 points we can buy at DraftKings. Both the Fremeau Efficiency Index and Sagarin have this game projected within a 14-point margin.

Coleman, who followed head coach Jedd Fisch from Arizona to Washington, cleared this line just twice last season and just four times in his career. The Wazzu defense should put up at least some resistance.

In two games, Washington's Jonah Coleman has seven rushing touchdowns, the most in the country. He's been unstoppable, and a Washington State defense made up of FCS transfers isn't going to stop him. Coleman is the key to an Apple Cup win for the Huskies, with Wazzu ranking No. 96 in EPA per rush on defense this season.

Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold ran for a whopping 137 yards and two scores in Baylor’s home opener, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona State look to replicate that path to success. Leavitt isn’t the most mobile quarterback, but he can still make plays on the ground. He has 157 rushing yards and three scores to his name already this season. Last year, he tallied 443 rushing yards and five scores. With last year’s star running back, Cam Skattebo, now in the NFL, it makes sense that Leavitt would be getting so more run as, well, a rusher.

How often do quarterbacks start their seasons by throwing for 400-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns in back-to-back games? That’s what Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson did this year, and he now gets to face an Arizona State defense that allowed 279 passing yards (on 8.5 yards per pass attempt) to Mississippi State and Blake Shapen. The Sun Devils rank 58th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7). Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham got a ton out of this roster last year, but I’m not buying that as a sustainable trend. His quarterback, Sam Leavitt, is down to a 121.8 passing efficiency score this year after posting a 150.2 last season. The spread of 2.5 suggests that this is a pick’em on a neutral site. That gives way too much credit to an Arizona State squad that seems to have regressed year-over-year and clearly misses Cam Skattebo.

Indiana outpaces Illinois in every key metric. The Hoosiers rank 16th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) with the 13th-ranked offense and 24th-ranked defense. Illinois clocks in at 27th with the 22nd-ranked offense and the 44th-ranked defense. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt and should cook an Illinois defense that allowed 334 passing yards to Duke’s Darian Mensah and ranks 68th in yards surrendered per pass attempt (7.1). Illinois’ signature win, a Week 2 blowout road win over Duke, hinged on some favorable turnover luck and mistakes from the Blue Devils. Cignetti’s team is far more disciplined and won’t give the ball away, which is why his Hoosiers are 11-5 against the spread since last year (and 8-3 as home favorites).

The last time this Illinois defense had to stop an opposing quarterback on the road, they let Darian Mensah throw for 334 yards on 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The secondary ranks as a bottom-quartile unit in defensive havoc generated by defensive backs, so don’t expect Mendoza to face much resistance. Illinois should be good enough to hang around against Indiana, forcing them to keep throwing as quarterback Luke Altmyer plays well on the road. Despite facing limited volume, Mendoza is still averaging 236 passing yards per game this year. That’s slightly below this line, but he averaged  273.1 passing yards per game at Cal a year ago, and Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke averaged 253.5 in this offense last year.

These are two fairly evenly matched programs, with both ranking in the top 20 in SP+. I'm backing the Hoosiers to cover thanks to their home-field advantage and their stellar QB play. Transfer Fernando Mendoza has been one of the best passers in the country (79.5 QBR) and should outduel Luke Altmyer in a game that I don't suspect will be full of points.

Last week, Houston outgained Colorado 431-300 despite entering the matchup ranked outside the bottom 110 nationally in both Pass and Rush success rate. That is an ominous sign for the Buffaloes going forward, and Cowboys running back Sam Scott should be the biggest beneficiary of a worn down Colorado defense.

Wyoming’s rushing attack will be the key to staying close this week and keeping the Folsom Field crowd out of the game. Despite Colorado’s secondary being decimated with four key players out for last week’s loss to Houston, the Cougars elected to use their physical advantage up front, and pounded the Buffaloes with 53 rushing attempts. 

Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been as good as it gets as a freshman. He has six TD passes in two games against FBS teams, with tight end Mason Mini becoming one of his favorite targets. Mini has scored in both games against FBS teams, and San Diego State could struggle to stop him after allowing two touchdowns to Washington State tight end Trey Leckner in its last game

Though Kelly hasn't scored this season, he is second on the team in receptions and yards. He scored four times last year, and he gets a matchup against a defense allowing 1.7 passing touchdowns per game.

Lane has scored just once this season, but he found the end zone 12 times last season. I expect a breakout game from him against a defense allowing 2.0 passing touchdowns per game.

Jordan has scored once in every game this season, and he leads the Trojans in rushing touchdowns. Jordan had eight more carries than any other back last week against Purdue, and he will have plenty of scoring opportunities against a team allowing over 20 points per game to offenses far inferior to USC's.

Jayden Maiava has passed for 329.6 yards per game this season without dipping below 282 passing yards in any of his three starts. The Michigan State defense was torched through the air by Boston College (390 yards) and also allowed Youngstown State's starting QB to reach 242 yards passing. This feels like a stylstic mismatch that benefits the Trojans.

USC's offense is one of the most explosive in the country, and it does the bulk of its damage through the air. That's where the Trojans can pierce the weak spot of the Michigan State defense to push the scoring pace in this matchup.

I like Sparty, though, coming back with a balanced attack that can contribute to this total after averaging 35.3 points per game to this point.

Trojans running back Waymond Jordan has been embedded seamlessly into the USC offense, as the JUCO transfer already has a team-leading 286 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Jordan ranks second among Big Ten running backs in yards after contact per rush (5.92), and is a home-run threat averaging 7.3 yards per carry.

USC owns the country’s second-highest scoring offense at 55 points per game, and is projected to score at least five touchdowns based on its team total O/U of 37.5 points. 

USC head coach Lincoln Riley has not only developed three Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks in his collegiate career, but has so far guided the Trojans to the top-ranked total offense. USC has averaged 604 yards per game, and while the competition gets stiffer against Michigan State, that is a lot of yards to go around for its talented tight end.