Air Force vs. Army Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 10
The second game of the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy series kicks off on Saturday afternoon from Michie Stadium, as the Army Black Nights host the Air Force Falcons.
- Army looks to extend a 13-game winning streak in November games at Michie Stadium
- The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight games between Air Force and Army
- The Under has cashed in 10 consecutive meetings between these two service academies
If you look back at our Air Force vs. Army early picks, you'll see this spread has moved two points in Air Force's favor, but that's not swaying us.
Our Air Force vs. Army prediction recognizes how rare it is for one team to be more than a three-touchdown favorite over the other in this rivalry, but we still expect a convincing victory by the Black Knights.
Kickoff from Michie Stadium airs on CBS at noon on Saturday. This is just one of the many exciting games we're looking at with our college football Week 10 predictions.
Best Air Force vs. Army picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Army -21.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Air Force ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Bryson Daily to score Army’s first touchdown (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Air Force vs. Army against the spread prediction: Week 10
Army to cover the spread: -21.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Air Force vs. Army opening odds:
- Air Force: +23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Army: -23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
New dominance in this rivalry?
Five of the last six meetings between Air Force and Army were decided by seven or fewer points. The one exception was last year’s 23-3 victory by the Black Knights, and 23-3 was also the halftime score in that game before the two teams played a scoreless second half.
In last year’s dominant 20-point victory, Army overcame an uncharacteristic 11 penalties by forcing six Air Force turnovers. In addition, Army quarterback Bryson Daily ran for 170 yards and passed for 40 more.
The scary thing for Air Force is that Daily is a much more complete quarterback this year. Daily has a 90.2 QBR or better in four of the last five games, and he's also thrown for more than 100 yards four times in that span. He has 26 total touchdowns and zero interceptions, and ranks fourth in the nation in Total QBR.
Air Force is inexperienced
Air Force is coming off a bye after losing its sixth straight game two weeks ago, 21-13 to Colorado State. The Rams had lost seven straight times to the Falcons, with nine straight losses at Colorado Springs.
Air Force had difficulty with Colorado State’s balanced offense (205 rushing yards and 201 passing yards allowed), and much of that had to do with the inexperienced roster it trotted out.
The Falcons had five players make their first career starts in that game, most notably quarterback Josh Johnson and two offensive linemen (OG Alec Falk and OT Trevor Tate). Air Force also had season highs in completions (10) and passing attempts (26), but if it's relying on the passing game a lot in this contest, that means its bread-and-butter triple-option attack is being shut down.
Don’t ignore the ATS trends
Air Force hasn't beaten a ranked team in the regular season since November 2016, and it's not about to do so against this talented Army squad.
The Black Knights are 6-1 ATS while Air Force has failed to cover any of its seven games.
Despite those trends, the line has come down two points from the opening number, which suggests sharp play is on the Falcons. But I can't envision any way a less talented and experienced team stays closer than last year’s 20-point beatdown, which means Army should roll to another easy victory.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back Army at a spread lower than 22 points. A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Air Force vs. Army best bet
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Bryson Daily to score Army’s first touchdown (+140) ⭐⭐⭐
Daily should have the ball in his hands plenty in this contest, after he carried the ball 36 times against the Falcons last year.
Army went into its last game against East Carolina scoring touchdowns on 22 of its 24 red=zone trips, then proceeded to score touchdowns on five of six red-zone trips against the Pirates (excluding kneel-downs).
Air Force allowed five rushing touchdowns in its first Commander-In-Chief’s game of the year against Navy. In that game, Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath carried a team-high 19 times and scored twice.
Daily has -350 anytime touchdown odds, and -135 odds to score in the first half, so by comparison, the 41.67% implied probability to score Army’s first touchdown is a great value play.
Rob Paul is also backing Daily in the touchdown market as one of his college football Week 10 expert picks.
Best odds: +140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 41.67%
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Air Force vs. Army odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Air Force vs. Army game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 2
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Michie Stadium (West Point, N.Y.)
- How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
- Weather: 54 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph NW
- Favorite: Army -22.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
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