Alabama vs. South Florida Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Crimson Tide to Bounce Back in Tampa
The Alabama Crimson Tide are looking to rebound from their loss to the Texas Longhorns, and we are offering our top Alabama vs. South Florida prediction, based on the best college football odds.
The Crimson Tide encountered difficulties on both sides of the ball in their game against the Texas Longhorns. Their defense yielded 454 yards, and quarterback Jalen Milroe threw two interceptions. According to CBS Sports, Alabama is now expected to turn to Tyler Buchner at QB this week.
The South Florida Bulls are 1-1, but their defense has performed abysmally thus far, allowing 429 yards per game and giving up 24 points to the Florida A&M Rattlers last week.
While making your college football Week 3 predictions, check out our best Alabama vs. South Florida prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Alabama vs. South Florida prediction: Week 3
Alabama team total Over 45.5 (-111 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There are quite a few good plays for this matchup, but we believe this is your best Alabama-South Florida prediction. Last week, the Crimson Tide took a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter and then were outscored 21-8 over the final 15 minutes.
Their defense was disappointing, but their offense was worse. Throughout the game, Alabama didn’t look ready to compete against a competent Texas defense. Milroe barely completed 50% of his passes for just 255 yards, while the rushing attack mustered only 107 yards. More than 40 of those came from Milroe, as Jase McClellan led all Crimson Tide running backs with just 45 yards.
The good news for the Crimson Tide offense is the Bulls’ defense is really bad. It has allowed 710 passing yards, including 374 last week against the Rattlers. With Buchner now expected to be under center and having something to prove, the Crimson Tide could end up scoring in the 60s.
Buchner transferred from Notre Dame in the spring, following offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to Tuscaloosa. Buchner's familiarity with this offense should allow him to hit the ground running this weekend.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban will use what happened last week as a teaching moment for his team, and it’s unlikely starters come off the field until the fourth quarter when this one is already out of hand. For all these reasons, the Alabama Over is the play.
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Alabama vs. South Florida best odds
FanDuel (-111)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 46.5 | Over 45.5 | N/A | N/A | Over 47.5 |
| -115 | -111 | N/A | N/A | -115 |
Only three of our best sports betting apps listed this total as of Wednesday afternoon, and they’re each showing a different number. FanDuel not only offers the lowest total, but it also has the best price for the Over, so it’s a no-brainer when it comes to where to make this pick and our FanDuel promo code can help you get an even better deal.
Take the total now rather than waiting for BetMGM and Caesars to release lines. This is a good price for a solid number, and we doubt you’ll get a better offer before kickoff.
Alabama vs. South Florida odds
Alabama vs. South Florida odds analysis
The Crimson Tide opened as 31.5-point favorites, and it didn’t take long for that spread to grow. They’re now favored by as much as 32.5, and the movement shouldn’t stop there. Nearly 60% of wagers back the Tide to cover despite how shaky they looked last week. This line could end up around 35 by kickoff.
The total opened at 61.5, and it hasn’t moved despite 67% of wagers backing the Over. Crimson Tide games are not high-scoring when they face an inferior opponent. But with how bad the Bulls’ defense is, this is one time where an Over this high may actually hit. Expect this to go up before kickoff.
Alabama vs. South Florida game info
- When: Saturday, Sept., 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 91 degrees, 65% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Alabama-South Florida prediction made Wednesday, 9/13/23 at 3:23 p.m. ET.
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