Auburn vs. LSU Free College Football Picks for Week 5

The LSU Tigers will probably beat the Auburn Tigers this Saturday, but they’ve bitten off more of the NCAAF odds than they can chew.

Auburn Tigers vs. Louisiana State Tigers

Saturday, October 2, 2021 - 9:00 PM ET at Tiger Stadium

So close, and yet so far. We had the Auburn Tigers in our Week 3 college football picks here at the ranch, taking them as +200 moneyline road dogs versus the Penn State Nittany Lions. As expected, it was a very competitive matchup, but Penn State did manage to win 28-20, and they also covered the 4-point spread in the process. At least we got the Tigers at a bargain price: They closed at around +155.

We might have to double up on No. 22 Auburn for this Saturday’s SEC matchup with the LSU Tigers. Despite LSU being unranked, this reads like a close contest on paper between two 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS teams; however, the home side is laying 3.5 points on the NCAAF odds board at (visit our Sportsbook Review) as we go to press, and that hook is staring plaintively at us, like the proverbial doggie in the window. You know, the one with the waggly tail.

https://youtu.be/ggO9LDtweP0

Death Valley Driver

Before we open up those wallets and/or purses and take this puppy home, we have to do some research. ESPN’s Football Power Index sees this game as a virtual coin flip, with LSU expected to win 52.2 percent of the time; that’s the equivalent of a –109 moneyline using the golden SBR Odds Converter. Delightfully enough, Auburn are available at +150 on the college football lines at (visit our Sportsbook Review). And the early consensus reports show 100-percent enthusiastic consent for the road dogs.

Not so enthusiastic: Jeff Sagarin. His projections at The USA Today have LSU winning by 4.70 points, which is not so promising for our NCAAF picks. But maybe a small wager on Auburn +150 still makes sense. According to Wizard of Odds, a kayfabe spread of +4.70 falls somewhere between +169 and +179 for a “fair” moneyline (no vig). This is a 25-cent ML that the fine folks at Bovada have posted. We can’t be too far away from break-even in Sagarin’s mind, and we’re definitely on the good side according to FPI.

WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. of Auburn Tigers celebrates after scoring a TD against Alabama State on September 11, 2021. Michael Chang/Getty Images/AFP

Putting those projections aside for a moment, the advanced stats at Football Outsiders give further weight towards this being an even matchup. Auburn check in at No. 21 overall on their Week 5 F/+ charts, three spots ahead of LSU; playing at Death Valley helps the home team bridge that gap. We’re also looking at something of a clash of styles between the LSU offense and the Auburn defense. And the weather in Baton Rouge is supposed to be rainy this week, with maybe a window of overcast skies for game time. That should help keep things close, so yes, let’s fire a small bet at this bad boy and see what happens.

NCAAF Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.