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Ball State vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 10: Cardinals to Cover Third Straight?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 1, 2023 4:59 PM EDT • 3 min 26 sec read.

The Ball State Cardinals visit the Bowling Green Falcons to open up a MAC doubleheader on Wednesday night, and we offer our best Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction based on the best college football odds.

Ball State, holding a 2-6 overall record and a 1-3 standing in MAC competition, currently sits at the bottom of the MAC West and possesses the division's poorest point differential at -103. In Week 8, the Cardinals attained their inaugural conference victory by triumphing over Central Michigan 24-17 at home before their Week 9 bye.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green, flaunting a 4-4 overall record with a 2-2 standing in the MAC, has clinched back-to-back wins against Buffalo and Akron. The Falcons stand as the sole team in the MAC East presently on a winning streak.

To accompany our college football Week 10 predictions, here is our best Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction: Week 10

Ball State +6.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

After starting the season just 1-5 ATS, Ball State has covered consecutive games by an average of 11.25 points. The Cardinals allow the third-most passing yards per game in the MAC (236.9) and have been exposed by efficient aerial attacks, but they have a stout run defense that allows just 123.3 rushing yards per game, good for second in the conference. Bowling Green is not built to take advantage of the weaker parts of the Cardinals' defense.

Falcons quarterback Camden Orth has single-digit passing attempts in four of seven games this season, which will not expose a Cardinals secondary that brought back just two of their top eight defensive backs and safeties in terms of experience. Instead, Bowling Green will be constantly running into the teeth of arguably one of the conference’s best linebacking crops. This unit will look to help Ball State’s ascent under Mike Neu, who has guided the team to a top 82 defensive SP+ ranking since 2020.

Meanwhile, this is still a Falcons defense that ranked 125th in defensive SP+ last season. Bowling Green will have its hands full with Kent State transfer Marquez Cooper, who is coming off a game where he rushed for 162 yards and a touchdown and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt on 26 carries. It was Cooper’s 15th career 100-yard game, and considering Bowling Green ranks 93rd in Defensive Line Yards (sixth in the MAC), a consistent ground attack led by Cooper (his 584 rushing yards are tied for fifth in the conference) should help Ball State stay within the number.

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Ball State vs. Bowling Green best odds

bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
+6.5+6.5+6.5+6.5+6.5
-110-110-110-110-110

This line is as sharp as it gets, as all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the +6.5 spread at -110 juice. The only shop that differs is BetRivers, which charges slightly higher -113 juice to take the +6.5 points. We would not put anyone off comparing the prices on an alternate spread of +7.5 when they become available, and we would pay up to -135 for that extra point of flexibility.

Ball State vs. Bowling Green odds

Ball State vs. Bowling Green odds analysis

The most significant line movement to this point took place at Caesars, whose spread inflated from -5 to -6.5 within three hours of its initial opening on Sunday afternoon. The line also increased a half-point from -6 to -6.5 at bet365, but there has not yet been enough momentum to reach the key number of seven at any of our best sports betting sites.

There is a range of a one-point difference in the total among the sites with our best sportsbook promos. BetMGM is on the low end at 39.5, while FanDuel and DraftKings are the highest at 40.5. All other shops are in the middle with an O/U of 40. The Under has cashed in five of Ball State’s eight games, while Bowling Green has an O/U record of 4-4.

Ball State vs. Bowling Green game info

  • When: Wednesday, Nov. 1 at 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Weather: 44 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph W

Ball State-Bowling Green prediction made 10/29/2023 at 6:06 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”