Ball State vs. Buffalo Prediction, Tonight: Week 12 Picks & Odds
It's a Tuesday MACtion matchup between Ball State and Buffalo at UB Stadium in Buffalo, N.Y., with the game set for 7 p.m. ET (CBSSN).
- Our Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction expects the Cardinals to come to play as an underdog
- Buffalo has been anywhere from a 3.5 to a 6.5-point favorite throughout the week at our college football betting sites
- This is one of three MAC matchups on Tuesday that we're highlighting, along with our Central Michigan vs. Toledo prediction and Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green prediction
In one of the first games of our Week 12 college football predictions, we're backing Ball State.
Ball State vs. Buffalo odds movement
Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point favorite with the line moving significantly in Ball State's direction. The Bulls are -3.5 as kickoff approaches.
A whopping 69% of the money is on Buffalo with just 31% backing the Cardinals. Meanwhile, 62% of the money is on the Over, with the game total hovering around 55.5.
Best Ball State vs. Buffalo picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Ball State +5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Buffalo ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Over 53.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ball State vs. Buffalo against the spread prediction: Week 12
Ball State to cover the spread: +5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ball State vs. Buffalo opening odds:
- Ball State +6.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Buffalo -6.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Rushing attack resistance
Backing a three-win Ball State team to cover the point spread may sound like a poor investment. However, looking closer at this team’s resumè, the Cardinals have been competitive in five of their previous seven games.
Ball State’s defense is beginning to round into form despite ranking 132nd out of 134 FBS programs in points allowed (38.9). The Cardinals held Northern Illinois to 23 points during a 25-23 win in Week 10 while holding three straight teams under 28 points.
Buffalo’s offense ranks 98th in the country, averaging 24.2 points per game, churning out most of its production via the ground. Ball State has held three of its past four opponents under 4.0 YPC and gave up no rushing touchdowns to Miami (OH) last week.
Ball State passing attack
Ball State’s offense is an underrated unit, averaging a 65.3 percent completion rate and scoring two or more passing touchdowns in four of nine games this season.
Buffalo’s pass defense allows a 62 percent completion rate, giving up at least two touchdowns through the air in four straight matchups.
Ball State QB Kadin Semonza has a 60 percent completion rate, earning five starts and getting the Cardinals to a 2-3 record since early October, including their big win over Northern Illinois.
Semonza should carve up Buffalo’s secondary to help Ball State cover +5 on the point spread.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Ball State vs. Buffalo best bet
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Over 53.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Shootout potential
We’ve already covered how Ball State’s defense is the third-worst scoring unit in the FBS this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense has scored 30 or more points in three of its last four games.
Ball State’s offense is no slouch, either.
Led by Semonza, the Cardinals have scored 21 to 42 points in four of their last five games, excluding a 24-14 road loss to Vanderbilt. We could be in store for a back-and-forth shootout at UB Stadium.
Recent Over trend
The Cardinals have combined with their opponent to score more than 53.5 points in six of nine games this season, while Buffalo is 5-4 on the Over. The Bulls don’t commit many turnovers, and the Cardinals tend to lack in forcing takeaways, excluding a four-turnover outing, which led to a two-point win over Northern Illinois.
Both teams are trending up offensively, while both defenses rank 97th or worse in points allowed per game, so staking a unit on Over 53.5 points is my best bet.
A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Ball State vs. Buffalo odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Ball State vs. Buffalo game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 12
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: UB Stadium (Buffalo, N.Y.)
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 53 degrees and partly cloudy
- Favorite: Buffalo -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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