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College Football Playoff Semifinal Predictions: Picks & Odds for Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: January 10, 2025 11:06 AM EST • 3 min 12 sec read.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman RJ Oben celebrates as we make our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman RJ Oben (9) celebrates. Photo by Amber Searls-Imagn Images.

Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, and Texas have been the four best teams throughout the opening rounds of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. They'll now square off in the CFP semifinals with a business trip to Atlanta on the line.

Our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions highlight our favorite plays ahead of the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl. These picks predict a low-scoring showdown in Miami and fade the minus-money college football championship odds favorite against the spread.

Our best college football betting sites list Notre Dame (-2.5 vs. Penn State) and Ohio State (-6 vs. Texas) as the favorites to advance to the championship. The College Football Playoff will conclude with the national title on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Best college football picks for CFP Round 3

College football odds subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

CFP semifinal college football odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM as of Jan. 7)

  • Orange Bowl: Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Penn State; Thursday, Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
  • Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-6) vs. Texas; Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
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College football game predictions for the Orange Bowl

College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

College football game predictions for the Cotton Bowl

Texas +6 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via ESPN BET | Implied probability: 52.38%

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This line screams - say it with me, class - overreaction. Ohio State finally seems to have lived up to its sky-high potential from preseason, and it's hard to pick against the Buckeyes at the moment. Furthermore, Texas played sloppy second-half football against Arizona State and very nearly paid the ultimate price for playing with its food.

At the end of the day, though, I don't believe Ohio State is six points better than the Longhorns.

Texas' roster is constructed similarly to a team that's given the Buckeyes issues over the last four years: Michigan. The Longhorns - like the Wolverines - lean on strong play in the trenches and expect to bully opponents every time they take the field. Steve Sarkisian's defense is much better than either Oregon's or Tennessee's, and it has the speed at every level to compete with its Big Ten adversary.

It's extremely difficult for teams to play three perfect games in a row, which Ohio State will attempt to do in the Cotton Bowl. This is also a quasi-home game for the Longhorns, whose fans will undoubtedly dominate the crowd at AT&T Stadium. I'll refrain from making an outright prediction of an upset, but I believe Texas will keep it closer than the spread at our best sportsbooks suggests.

CFP Cotton Bowl expert picks

Notre Dame-Penn State Under 45.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

While this game is being played at the Miami Dolphins' home (Hard Rock Stadium) and the Over/Under looks like an NFL total - I assure you, this is a College Football Playoff contest. Notre Dame and Penn State have been two of the sport's best defenses all year. They've continued this high-level play against playoff-caliber competition, allowing a combined 51 points across 16 quarters in the postseason.

The Fighting Irish (No. 2 in points per game allowed) and Nittany Lions (No. 5) both boast top-five scoring defenses. They've surrendered 13.6 points and 15.8 points per game, respectively, and we don't expect much difference in the Orange Bowl.

Notre Dame and Penn State lean to the Under at a combined 16-13 clip this season, so we're sticking to the trends for this semifinal showdown. A 45.5-point total is high for two run-heavy, defensive football teams. DraftKings has the best price on the market for the Under at -115.

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the SportsbookReview.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC.