Clemson vs. SMU Prediction & Picks: ACC Championship
SMU’s perfect ACC season is on the line Saturday as the Mustangs need to knock off Clemson to ensure the CFP committee won’t have any Alabama-related funny business at their expense in the final rankings reveal.
Our Clemson vs. SMU prediction believes the Tigers’ elite balance and edge in the passing game will be used to establish a path for an upset in the ACC Championship.
Clemson and SMU (-2.5) face off at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., Saturday at 8 pm. ET (ABC), and this is just a taste of what you can find from our college football championship week predictions.
To see how the outlook for this game has changed throughout the week, be sure to look back at our Clemson vs. SMU early picks.
Clemson vs. SMU prediction & best pick
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Clemson +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. SMU ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Cade Klubnik Over 247.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Clemson vs. SMU ATS prediction: ACC Championship
Clemson to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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SMU rides into the ACC Championship as the winner of nine straight games during a perfect conference slate. But its ability to consistently blow out low-quality opponents isn’t enough for me to like the Mustangs in this matchup against the most balanced foe they’ll have faced all year.
Clemson’s balance could stymie the Mustangs
SMU faced only two teams this season with top-25 adjusted offensive efficiencies, losing to BYU and beating Louisville in a shootout while allowing 461 yards of total offense.
The Mustangs lean on their passing offense, but they haven’t been challenged by many defenses like Clemson.
The Tigers will be only the second defense ranked in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency that the Mustangs will have faced. The other was Duke, which ranks 89th in adjusted offensive efficiency - yet SMU needed overtime to beat the Blue Devils.
Ranked seventh in AdjO and 17th in AdjD, Clemson packs a punch on both sides of the ball unlike anything SMU has faced this year.
I look for the Tigers to expose SMU’s undefeated ACC campaign as the luck of the scheduling draw after the Mustangs avoided Miami (10-2), Syracuse (9-3), and Clemson (9-3) during the season.
Clemson vs. SMU best pick
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Cade Klubnik Over 247.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
Though recent weeks have featured the Mustangs holding down opposing passing attacks beyond their usual tendencies, SMU hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency since Oct. 5.
Klubnik should exploit SMU’s pass funnel defense
SMU ranks 92nd in pass defense, allowing 240 passing yards per game to its opponents. Cade Klubnik should see Clemson’s offensive game plan tilt toward reliance on his arm as SMU has the ninth-ranked rushing defense in the country.
BetMGM lists the prop at 247.5 yards, which provides a considerable edge over the rest of our best sports betting apps. Most sportsbooks have this prop listed from 259.5 to 261.5. We are willing to play this up to 264.5 yards.
Clemson vs. SMU odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Clemson vs. SMU live odds
Clemson vs. SMU opening odds:
- Clemson: -1.5 (-115)
- SMU: +1.5 (-105)
Clemson vs. SMU game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 7
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 39 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SW
- Favorite: SMU -2.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
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