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College Football Best Bets for Saturday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions for Week 12

Henry John

Last Updated: November 19, 2022 3:22 AM EST • 4 min 18 sec read.

Our top college football best bets for Week 12.
Our top college football best bets for Week 13.

Our Week 12 college football best bets include a home underdog in the SEC, a Pac-12 rivalry game, and a player prop from a Big Ten clash.

The penultimate college football Saturday of the season is upon us. Although this weekend’s schedule lacks marquee matchups between big-name schools, there are still plenty of compelling games on the board. As always, bettors have a whole host of viable options when it comes to attacking the Week 12 slate. 

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college football slate (odds via BetMGM, Caesars, SuperBook and DraftKings Sportsbook).

Check out all of our top picks for college football's Week 12, along with our top upset picks!

Saturday’s College Football Schedule and Odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Saturday’s College Football Best Bets 

  • Moneyline: Utah (-125 via BetMGM)
  • Spread: Arkansas +2.5 (-110 via Caesars)
  • Total: Stanford-California Under 46.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Upset: Nebraska (+320 via SuperBook)
  • Prop: Spencer Petras Under 145.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings)

Top College Football Picks for Saturday

Moneyline: Utah (-125)

Coming into the year, Utah had the highest power rating of any Pac-12 team. After the multiple upsets that took place across the conference last week, the Utes are still very much in the running for a spot in the conference title game.

From a health standpoint, the Utes have fortune on their side. Not only is tight end Dalton Kincaid reportedly fully healthy, but Oregon quarterback Bo Nix will be playing at less than 100% on Saturday. That is if he plays at all. Without Nix, the Ducks’ offense will be a shell of itself.

Last season, Utah dominated each of two matchups against Oregon in the trenches and on the scoreboard. While the Utes still project to have a physicality advantage, bettors must also consider just how bad the Ducks’ defense is. Oregon ranks 74th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has allowed more passing yards per game than any other team in the country.

Read our Utah-Oregon preview here.

Spread: Arkansas +2.5 (-110)

Even without starting quarterback KJ Jefferson last week, Arkansas still managed to cover a small number in a three-point home loss to LSU. By all accounts, Jefferson will be back under center on Saturday night when the Razorbacks host Ole Miss.

Statistically speaking, the difference between Arkansas’ offense with Jefferson is massive. When Jefferson has been healthy this season, the Razorbacks have averaged nearly 37 points and close to 500 yards of offense per game. Without him, those averages dip to just 15 points and 383 yards.

The Ole Miss run defense failed to hold up for a full 60 minutes last week against Alabama. Given that Arkansas operates as a run-first offense, this is actually a sneaky-positive matchup. Operating behind a stout offensive line, Jefferson and tailback Raheim Sanders are more than capable of wearing down the Rebels’ defense.

Finally, the weak link that is the Arkansas defensive secondary may not be a huge deal in this matchup. With Ole Miss also being a run-oriented offense, one has to question whether Jaxson Dart and the passing attack can truly make the Hogs pay down the field.

Read our Arkansas-Ole Miss preview here.

Total: Stanford-California Under 46.5 (-110)

The annual rivalry known as “The Big Game” takes place this Saturday as Pac-12 rivals Stanford and California collide in Berkeley. While bettors may wish to consider laying the short spread with the Golden Bears in this spot, we will be primarily focused on the game total here.

Since earning back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State, Stanford appears to have completely mailed it in on the season. Even in those victories, the Cardinal’s offense was highly ineffective. 

Stanford has scored 16 points or fewer in five straight games, a streak that dates all the way back to Oct. 8. The run of offensive futility has included matchups against Arizona State, UCLA and Washington State.

While California has also struggled in the standings this year, one has to believe that defensive-minded head coach, Justin Wilcox, will relish this rare opportunity to get the better of Stanford. The Bears rank just 83rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, while the Cardinal check in at 98th. Take the Under in a game featuring two of the worst offenses in the country among Power Five programs.

Upset: Nebraska (+320)

Wisconsin’s hopes of winning the Big Ten West Division dissipated at the hands of Iowa last week. Graham Mertz threw two interceptions as the Badgers’ offense was stymied in defeat. Although the Nebraska outfit has nowhere near the same caliber of defense as Iowa, bettors shouldn’t dismiss the home underdog entirely in this spot.

Nebraska has scored a grand total of 25 points in its last three games. Notably absent from the lineup over that span was quarterback Casey Thompson. The Texas transfer was knocked out of the Cornhuskers’ home game against Illinois with an arm injury and hasn’t played since. After practicing all week, that appears likely to change on Saturday.

Thompson’s return will undoubtedly help jumpstart a Nebraska offense that has been nonexistent the past few weeks. It should also provide a jolt of energy to a defense that has struggled all season.

It should also be noted that Wisconsin has only one victory away from Madison all season. Given how ugly last week’s effort in Iowa City was, one can’t help but believe the Cornhuskers have a shot as a double-digit home underdog.

Prop: Spencer Petras Under 145.5 passing yards (-115)

Speaking of Iowa, our prop selection for this week is focused on none other than Hawkeyes quarterback Spencer Petras. Petras comes into this week’s matchup against Minnesota with only five touchdown passes and an abysmal QBR of 29.5 on the season.

Not only is Petras horribly inaccurate as a passer, but he has no reliable weapons at his disposal. Iowa comes in ranked 122nd out of 131 FBS teams in average passing yards per game (157.6) on the season. Petras has failed to surpass this passing yardage prop line of 145.5 on four occasions and barely got there against Rutgers with 148 yards passing.

Further clouding the outlook for the Hawkeyes’ offense this week is the fact that Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Golden Gophers rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have allowed only 168.1 passing yards per game to opponents, the sixth-fewest in all of college football.

To top it all off, the weather forecast is calling for frigid temperatures of 10 degrees and below. All things considered, we’ll gladly take the Under and dare Petras to beat us.

Where to Bet on College Football

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

College football best bets from 11/18/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.