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College Football Best Bets for Saturday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions for Week 9

Henry John

Last Updated: October 28, 2022 11:39 AM EDT • 5 min 34 sec read.

Our top college football best bets for Week 12.
Our top college football best bets for Week 13.

Can newly-ranked South Carolina stay hot? Is an outright upset in the Big Ten brewing in Lincoln? Our Week 9 college football best bets include picks for these games and much more!

Oh, what a time to be a sports bettor! Another busy Saturday of college football is on tap this weekend. Next week kicks off the annual tradition of midweek MACtion games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Throw in the NFL schedule and we are embarking on a stretch of 27 straight days where at least one college or professional football game will take place.

What do you say we get this wonderful time of year started off right with a winning college football Saturday?

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college football slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Superbook).

Check out all of our college football picks for Week 9!

Saturday’s College Football Schedule and Odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Saturday’s College Football Best Bets

  • Moneyline: Oklahoma (-120 via DraftKings)
  • Spread: Missouri +4 (-110 via Superbook)
  • Total: Nevada-San Jose State Under 44.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Upset: Nebraska (+240 via BetMGM)
  • Prop: KJ Jefferson Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 via DraftKings)

Top College Football Picks for Saturday

Moneyline: Oklahoma (-120)

Oklahoma and Iowa State are coming into Saturday’s Big 12 matchup on the heels of a Week 8 bye. Although the game is in Ames, it’s hard to fathom the current line that favors the Sooners by only a single point. 

For as bad as OU’s defense has looked over the last month, Iowa State’s offense hasn’t looked much better. The Cyclones have yet to score more than 24 points in any game against a Power 5 opponent this season. In games against Iowa, Kansas, and Kansas State, ISU was held to just 10, 11, and 9 points, respectively. This is the worst offense in the Big 12 by far.

Given the struggles of the Cyclones’ offense, it’s fair to question whether or not they will even be able to take advantage of Oklahoma’s defensive issues. An inability to run the ball has led to Iowa State putting a lot on the arm of redshirt freshman quarterback, Hunter Dekkers. As head coach Brent Venables has had an extra week to prepare, Dekkers could be a sitting duck.

The other element to note is that the Sooners’ offense has been just fine with Dillon Gabriel under center. The ugly shutout loss to Texas was the game he missed due to a concussion. With an expectation that Oklahoma will be able to score, one has to wonder how Iowa State will be able to keep pace, let alone outscore the Sooners.

Spread: Missouri +4 (-110)

After knocking off Texas A&M at home, South Carolina is now ranked 25th in the AP Poll. This marks the first time in exactly 215 weeks that the Gamecocks have had a national ranking next to their name. As always, there is no rest for the wary in the SEC. Carolina will entertain a feisty Missouri squad in Columbia on Saturday afternoon as a 4-point home favorite.

It’s worth pointing out that this line first opened up with South Carolina laying six. It has come down across the market throughout the week and for good reason. USC may have gotten the win last week, but jumping out to an early double-digit lead was much more about Texas A&M making mistakes than anything the Gamecocks did offensively.

When it was all said and done, Carolina was actually outgained by over 100 yards last week. It’s clear that there are still issues on offense. QB Spencer Rattler continues to look unsettled and get happy feet in the pocket. Running back Marshawn Lloyd was solid against the Aggies, but it could be a different story on Saturday.

While Missouri may have only one SEC win to date, three conference losses have come by a combined margin of 14 points. The Tigers’ defense has been the story. Mizzou comes in allowing only 24.2 points per game to FBS opponents, down nearly 10 points from last year’s average. The front seven is particularly stout and fully capable of causing problems for Rattler and the Carolina offensive line.

Total: Nevada-San Jose State Under 44.5 (-110)

It’s rare to see a game with a lopsided point spread of 25 points have such a low total. However, when it comes to Saturday night’s Mountain West matchup between Nevada and San Jose State, the low Over/Under is completely justified. In fact, the current market consensus actually sits two points above where oddsmakers first opened the line.

For those who may not be familiar with Nevada football, it’s not a pretty sight. After losing their head coach, several transfers, and their veteran quarterback in the offseason, the Wolf Pack are in the very first year of an extensive rebuild. The quarterback play has been atrocious, and Nevada comes in averaging only 16.9 points per game.

Meanwhile, San Jose State had an impromptu bye last week following the tragic death of a freshman member of the football team. While the Spartans have typically been able to put up points against lesser Group of 5 competition, this really feels like a scenario in which they will have to account for nearly all of the scoring by themselves. 

As far as pace is concerned, the Spartans come in ranked 85th in the country in offensive plays run per game (68.8). The Wolf Pack are even further down the list with less than 65 plays run per game. A slow tempo combined with an inability to trust Nevada’s offense whatsoever seems to indicate that buying back on the 2-point line move could be a profitable endeavor.

Upset: Nebraska (+240)

This year has hardly gone according to plan for Nebraska. The low point was undoubtedly losing outright to Georgia Southern as a 21-point home favorite. Scott Frost was fired after that game, and Nebraska has gone 2-2 since then. There have been some positive signs in the last few weeks.

The last time Nebraska was at home, the defense shut out Indiana in the second half of a 14-point win three weeks ago. That result was succeeded by a road win over Rutgers and a narrow loss at Purdue. Basically, no matter who the Cornhuskers are up against, they seem to play to the level of their opponent.

What’s really crazy is that, with a 2-2 record in Big Ten play, Nebraska still isn’t out of the running to win the West Division. As such, there is plenty of incentive to give No. 17 Illinois all it can handle on Saturday.

Offensively, Nebraska is perhaps more capable than any team that the Fighting Illini have faced so far this season. Getting out to an early lead would be massive as Illinois’ run-heavy offense isn’t exactly built to play from behind. If the defense can slow down Chase Brown and force Tommy DeVito into a mistake or two, the Cornhuskers could find themselves with a chance to score the outright upset at home.

Prop: Jefferson Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

In some ways, this rushing yardage prop for Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson feels too good to be true. Other than the fact that it almost seems too easy, it’s impossible to come up with an argument against betting the Over on 52.5 rushing yards.

Considering how bad Auburn is defensively against the run, why wouldn’t Arkansas utilize Jefferson’s rushing abilities again in Saturday’s matchup? The Tigers come in allowing a whopping 226.2 rushing yards per game to opponents, the fifth-most of any FBS team.

In the four games in which Jefferson has carried the ball 17 or more times, only against Alabama did he fail to rush for more than 60 yards. While Alabama’s run defense is pretty darn good, to begin with, bettors might also recall that Jefferson was knocked out of that game due to a concussion and didn’t get to play a full 60 minutes. 

The last time Auburn was in action came two weeks ago against Ole Miss. QB Jaxson Dart was one of three different Rebels players who finished with over 100 yards rushing in that game. Given that Jefferson is an even better dual-threat quarterback than Dart, it’s hard to believe he can’t rush for at least half of what Dart managed against this awful Auburn run defense.

Where to Bet on College Football

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

College football best bets made on 10/28/2022 at 2:20 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.