Duke vs. Ole Miss Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction for Tonight's Gator Bowl

Tonight's Gator Bowl features Duke and Ole Miss from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. (7:30 p.m. ET ESPN). Duke is without Maalik Murphy and Star Thomas after the starting quarterback and running back left via the transfer portal.
Duke is the massive underdog for the contest, but our Mike Spector discusses the chances of the Blue Devils covering in our Duke vs. Ole Miss prediction.
Duke's defense must be at their best to defend Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart, who amassed 3,875 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes. Dart was one of the primary reasons Ole Miss scored the fifth-most points per game.
Our Duke vs. Ole Miss player prop picks, part of our college bowl game predictions this week, feature Caden Prieskorn, Dart, and Cayden Lee.
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Editor's note: The Gator Bowl between Duke and Ole Miss has been moved from 7:30 p.m. ET to 8:05 p.m. ET on Jan. 2 due to the Sugar Bowl being postponed.
Duke vs. Ole Miss updated betting info
Duke vs. Ole Miss college football player prop picks: Gator Bowl
College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
- Caden Prieskorn touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+280 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jaxson Dart prop pick: Over 265.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Cayden Lee prop pick: Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Duke vs. Ole Miss touchdown prediction
Caden Prieskorn anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +280 via Caesars | Implied probability: 26.32%
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17 of the Rebels’ 54 offensive touchdowns aren’t playing in this game with Tre Harris and Henry Parrish out. While you could consider taking Jordan Watkins, who had seven receiving touchdowns this season, the price isn’t worth it when there are plenty of options for Dart in this game. Therefore, I recommend taking Prieskorn.
Prieskorn ended the year with three touchdowns, and he has caught one in two of his last four games. His odds at Caesars (+280) are much more favorable than any of the other Rebels who could realistically score in this game. And with the Blue Devils’ offense a huge question mark, this is way more valuable than anything that team has to offer.
Best Duke vs. Ole Miss prop picks
Jaxson Dart Over 265.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
Dart slowed down a bit during SEC play, but he still put up outrageous numbers in most of his games this year. He threw for a season-high 515 yards against the Arkansas Razorbacks, and he topped 280 yards in nine games. He ended the year with fewer than 200 yards in two of three, but I don’t expect him to struggle this week.
Duke’s defense gave up more than 200 passing yards per game this season. Additionally, when they’ve been challenged, the Blue Devils have generally failed the test. Earlier this year, Cam Ward threw for 400 yards against them, and Dart isn’t far behind Ward when it comes to yardage production.
This would be a five-star play if the entire Rebels team was playing. But I do worry that Dart could struggle a little more than usual without Harris and Parrish, as he is forced to spread the ball around more.
Cayden Lee Over 58.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
Dart will be targeting Lee and Watkins for most of the contest with Harris out. While Lee finished the year with more receiving yards than Watkins, his total is set 10 yards below what the best sportsbooks have for Watkins.
Lee did have a lackluster regular-season finale against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, as he finished that game with just three catches for 27 yards. But that game broke a streak of five consecutive games with at least 59 yards. During that five-game span, Lee went over 80 yards four times.
While I ultimately think that both Lee and Watkins will hit their Overs in this game, I’m taking Lee here because his production has been more evenly dispersed this season, while more than one-third of Watkins’ yards came in one game.
Gator Bowl live odds & game info
- When: Thursday, Jan. 2
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 38 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph NNW
- Favorite: Ole Miss -17.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
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