Duke vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Picks: Gator Bowl Odds
Editor's note: The Gator Bowl between Duke and Ole Miss has been moved from 7:30 p.m. ET to 8:05 p.m. ET on Jan. 2 due to the Sugar Bowl being postponed.
The Ole Miss Rebels are the biggest favorite of any team in this college football bowl season, and they will look to exert their dominance over the Duke Blue Devils in the Gator Bowl from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., on Tuesday. Kickoff is set for 8:05 p.m. ET (ESPN).
- Ole Miss is the only team favored by more than 17 points this bowl season
- The Rebels lost three games this season, all by a touchdown or less
- Duke went 9-3 in Manny Diaz’s first season as head coach
As we continue with our college bowl game predictions this week, my Duke vs. Ole Miss prediction for the Gator Bowl wonders if the spread has grown too big in the lead-up to the game when considering Ole Miss' motivation levels.
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Duke vs. Ole Miss prediction & best pick: Gator Bowl
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Duke +17.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Ole Miss ⭐⭐
- My best pick: Ole Miss team total Under 34.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Duke vs. Ole Miss ATS prediction
Duke to cover the spread: +17.5 ⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Can Ole Miss get over its CFP snub?
Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin spent much of the time after the College Football Playoff bracket was revealed continuing to politic on social media about why Ole Miss’ resume was deserving of inclusion, even if it was just reposting others’ points.
On paper, Kiffin has gotten buy-ins from several of his stars that say they will play in this game, like All-SEC quarterback Jaxson Dart -- who we cover in our Duke vs. Ole Miss player prop picks -- and star defensive tackle Walter Nolen.
But saying one will play and putting in the necessary preparation over the last couple of weeks are a different story. Could this be another Cam Ward situation, where the team’s star quarterback doesn’t finish the game and is pulled in crunch time?
What we do know is that Duke is playing for its second 10-win season in school history, and has six one-score wins this year, its most in a single season.
Duke has the defense to keep it close
Ole Miss’ defense is getting all the attention entering this game. Its 2.31 yards per rush allowed was the best among FBS teams this season.
But the Rebels have two starting members of the secondary out, and Duke was likely to attack through the air anyway, as it has one of the worst Rushing Success Rates in the country.
Meanwhile, Duke’s defensive front finished with the second-most tackles for loss in the country. Granted, the only team with more was Ole Miss, but that statistic just gives more reasons as to why the Blue Devils should not be overlooked.
Duke’s outstanding bowl history
The Blue Devils have won five consecutive bowl games dating back to 2015, which is tied for the second-longest active streak nationally, and have covered in each of their last seven bowl appearances.
This line ballooned even more from an opening number of -14 to -17.5, and that was finally the number where I decided the value switched to the underdog Blue Devils, as Manny Diaz will have his squad ready to play.
Duke vs. Ole Miss best pick
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Ole Miss team total Under 34.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Duke’s only chance in this game figures to be to make this a defensive slugfest, especially since it is without quarterback Maalik Murphy, who entered the transfer portal.
Duke’s defense ranks in the top 25 nationally in nine different categories, and is in the top 10 in fumbles recovered, tackles for loss per game, sacks per game, and turnovers gained.
The Blue Devils are also a stingy red zone defense. Their opponents have scored touchdowns on just 18 of 38 red zone trips (47.37%), and Duke ranks 11th nationally (and best in the ACC) in lowest red zone touchdown percentage allowed.
The best part of this play is that Ole Miss would also likely be willing to take its foot off the gas if it races out to an early lead, especially if Duke’s offense struggles to keep pace.
The -120 odds at DraftKings for this wager trump the -125 offered at FanDuel, and a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.33.
Duke vs. Ole Miss odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Duke vs. Ole Miss live odds
Duke vs. Ole Miss opening odds:
- Duke: +14 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Ole Miss: -14 (-110 via BetMGM)
Duke vs. Ole Miss injuries
Gator Bowl game info
- When: Thursday, Jan. 2
- Kickoff: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 41 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph NNE
- Favorite: Ole Miss -17.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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