Fresno State vs. Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 1

The Wolverines begin their national title defense as we make the best Fresno State vs. Michigan Week 1 predictions.

Philip Wood

Last updated: August 31, 2024 10:27 AM EDT • 4 min read

Michigan defensive back Will Johnson celebrates after intercepting a pass against Ohio State. We're backing the Wolverines defense in our Fresno State vs. Michigan prediction. — Michigan defensive back Will Johnson celebrates after intercepting a pass against Ohio State. Photo by Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn.

The Michigan Wolverines take the field for the first time since winning the national championship and will battle a tough Fresno State Bulldogs team.

Our Fresno State vs. Michigan prediction leaves us wondering if the Wolverines should really be favored by three touchdowns at our best college football betting sites.

Are they heavy favorites for Saturday's game at Michigan Stadium - set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock) - because they're legit college football championship odds contenders? Or is this destined to be a low-scoring affair?

The Wolverines may be the defending champs, but their team looks much different than it did one year ago as we dive into our Week 1 college football predictions.

Best Fresno State vs. Michigan picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Game pick: Under 45.5 (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Mikey Keene Under 204.5 passing yards (-117 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Fresno State vs. Michigan prediction: Week 1

Under 45.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐

There are so many ways this game could go, but in nearly every scenario the final score totals fewer than 45.5 points.

Brand new Wolverines

JJ McCarthy is gone, and the Wolverines’ quarterback battle is on. We still don’t know who will be starting in the coveted role, and we’re likely to see as many as three different players under center in Saturday’s game.

Last year’s team averaged 35.9 points per game, but this unit won’t come anywhere near that number in Week 1. And even if they do, their defense should still be good enough to hold the Bulldogs to 14 or fewer points.

With the quarterback position an unknown, 35 seems like the ceiling for the Wolverines, even against a mediocre Fresno State defense.

Bulldogs' offense silenced

Last season, the Bulldogs averaged 30.2 points per game. They scored at least 30 seven times, but they also failed to score 20 in three of their last four games.

Mikey Keene is a capable quarterback, but he’s never faced a defense like Michigan’s. Even after losing some key players, the Wolverines will hold Fresno State to 10 or fewer, ensuring this total goes Under.

If it does, a $10 bet pays a $9.62 profit.

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

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Fresno State vs. Michigan player prop

Mikey Keene Under 204.5 passing yards (-117) ⭐⭐⭐

In 2023, Keene threw for at least 200 yards in nine of his appearances. But as I said earlier, he’s never faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of this one.

The Wolverines allowed just 157.0 passing yards per game last season.

Keene's likely to throw the ball more than 30 times, something he did in all but two games last season. But those attempts aren’t going to be threatening to the first great defense he’s faced.

Only two sportsbooks have this under. While FanDuel’s price is -114, they’re also asking for less four yards, so Caesars is the best place to play. And a $10 winning bet pays an $8.55 profit.

Best odds: -117 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.92%

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Fresno State vs. Michigan odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Fresno State vs. Michigan game info

When: Saturday, Aug. 31
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
How to watch: NBC, Peacock
Weather: 79 degrees, 4-mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
Favorite: Michigan -21 (-112 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.