Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction Tonight: College Football Playoff Picks & Odds for Round 1
The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off tonight at 8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN) with a Hoosier State showdown between Notre Dame (11-1) and Indiana (11-1) at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind.
The Fighting Irish are favored by a touchdown in the first CFP matchup of our college bowl game predictions this week, and my best Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction expects the Fighting Irish's run game to be more explosive than A.J. Foyt at the Indy 500.
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Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction & best pick: College Football Playoff
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread prediction: Notre Dame -7 (-115 via Caesars) vs. Indiana ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Jeremiyah Love Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Indiana vs. Notre Dame weather info
Thanks to overnight snowfall in South Bend, the first-ever home College Football Playoff game at Notre Dame Stadium could feel the effects of the winter weather.
While the snow accumulated overnight, the flurries ended in the mid-afternoon and aren't expected to pick back up before kickoff. Still, if it does keep up, not only does the weather favor the Irish's run-first attack, it could also help Under bettors.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame ATS prediction
Notre Dame to cover the spread: -7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Do not let Notre Dame's upset loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7 fool you - this is one of the college football championship odds favorites for a reason. The Fighting Irish bounced back from that loss to the Huskies and have outscored opponents by an average of 30.7 points per game.
The biggest difference has been the offense coming alive behind the mobility of QB Riley Leonard and the one-two punch of running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The trio has 36 rushing touchdowns this season and has the offense sitting No. 3 in EPA per rush.
While the Hoosiers have played strong defense all year, they've faced just three teams ranked in the top 60 by SP+: Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska. Two of those teams rank outside of the top 85 in SP+ on offense, while the Buckeyes dropped 38 on the Hoosiers with an offense that's ranked ninth - Notre Dame's sits at No. 5.
All crossed up
The bigger mismatch in this game, though, will be when Notre Dame's defense is on the field. This is the No. 1 defense in EPA per dropback, and it allows the third-fewest passing yards per game (157.9).
It's only going to be more difficult for Hoosiers QB Kurtis Rourke with Howard Cross set to return to the lineup for Marcus Freeman's team. The preseason All-American has a 10.2% pass-rush win rate and should make things easier on Rylie Mills, who has the third-most pressures in the country among interior defensive linemen (33), per PFF.
The Buckeyes were able to sack Rourke five times while their front seven overpowered the Hoosiers' O-line, and I think the Irish will cover due to similar circumstances. If they do, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
Our Gabe Henderson backed the Irish in his Indiana vs. Notre Dame early picks, but we're getting an even better number in the hours before kickoff.
My best Indiana vs. Notre Dame pick
Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Jeremiyah Love Over 79.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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This line at bet365 is a must - the same prop at our other college football betting sites either has a shorter price or the line is set at 86.5 yards. Given the way Love has run down the stretch, this might be one of the best plays of the first round of the CFP.
The sophomore star has crossed 79.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games while averaging 97.4 rushing yards per game. For as good as Indiana's run defense is, I'm not sure that group has seen a back as explosive as Love this season (that includes Ohio State's Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson).
Love is top 25 in the country in rushing yards after contact per carry (4.11) and missed tackles forced (55), plus Leonard's legs should help open things up. If the Irish's star back goes for 80-plus once again, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame expert picks
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Indiana vs. Notre Dame odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame live odds
Indiana vs. Notre Dame opening odds:
- Indiana: +8 (-110)
- Notre Dame: -8 (-110)
Indiana vs. Notre Dame betting action & odds movement
This line opened as high as Notre Dame -8.5, and we've seen it drop to as low as -6.5 in the hours before kickoff tonight at Notre Dame Stadium.
That feels like a tremendous value for those backing the favorites, who should be able to impose their will in the run game even against Indiana's stout defense.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame injuries
Indiana vs. Notre Dame game info
- When: Friday, Dec. 20
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Ind.)
- How to watch: ABC, ESPN
- Weather: 27 degrees, 37% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph N
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