Iowa State vs. BYU Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: Will Hard-Nosed Defense Suppress Scoring?
The BYU Cougars play host to the Iowa State Cyclones in Provo, and we’re calling for a low-scoring game between the pair of Big 12 teams as our top Iowa State vs. BYU prediction. All our college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
Iowa State (5-4) is looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to Kansas in this new-look Big 12 battle against BYU (5-4).
It could be difficult for the Iowa State and BYU offenses to score Saturday night against such dominant defenses.
As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, here is our best Iowa State vs. BYU prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Iowa State vs. BYU prediction
Under 41.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Scoring has been difficult to come by for BYU in recent weeks, as the Cougars have totaled 13 combined points across their past two games. Though those efforts have come in tough road environments, the quality of Iowa State’s defense (32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency) stacks up favorably to that of the West Virginia unit (45th in adjusted defensive efficiency) that just limited BYU to seven points last week.
Both defenses rank in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is much more than we can say for both offenses.
BYU’s adjusted offensive efficiency checks in at 97th in FBS, with Iowa State coming in at 68th. Both offenses rank toward the bottom of the chart in scoring average, with neither side reaching 23 points per game.
Unlike a traditional Big 12 matchup, we could see some grind-it-out possessions to shorten this game between two teams that take their time and prioritize ball control. BYU ranks 75th nationally in seconds per play while Iowa State checks in at 118th in FBS in offensive pace.
Given the measured nature of these offenses and the lack of explosiveness and efficiency against defenses that are better suited to slow down the opposition, we believe the line movement on this total through the week has merit; points should be at a premium in Provo.
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Iowa State vs. BYU best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 41 | Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 | Under 41.5 |
| -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The majority of our best sports betting apps list the total at 41.5 with standard -110 odds on both sides. The exception is at DraftKings, which has dropped its total to 41. Although it offers more favorable odds on Under at -108, we prefer to stick with the field on this one to gain the hook to 41.5.
While we’ve already lost some value on this line since it opened at 44.5, we still like the Under as a three-star play down to 41.
For the best odds on Under 41.5, use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS.
Iowa State vs. BYU odds
Iowa State vs. BYU odds analysis
Iowa State opened as a 5.5-point favorite and has increased to -7.5 to -8.5 across our best sports betting sites. The majority of early wagers this week have come in on the Cyclones.
The total opened at 44.5 and has dipped down to 41 or 41.5 across our best sportsbooks. Around 53% of wagers on the total have come in on the Over.
Iowa State vs. BYU game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023 at 10:15 PM ET
- Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 44 Degrees, 5-mph winds, 0% precipitation
Iowa State-BYU prediction made 11/9/2023 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
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