Skip to main content

LSU vs. Mississippi State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Are Tigers Undervalued?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 16, 2023 11:12 AM EDT • 3 min 24 sec read.

The LSU Tigers have won four of their last five matchups against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, but our top LSU-Mississippi State prediction explores whether this year will see a shift in the pattern as we analyze the best college football odds.

LSU is one of four SEC teams ranked in the AP poll's top 14, and Mississippi State holds a 2-0 record after a thrilling overtime victory over Arizona last week. The Bulldogs posted a 2-3 record against AP top 25 teams last season, securing wins against No. 17 Texas A&M and No. 20 Ole Miss.

Among our college football Week 3 predictions, here is our best LSU vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

LSU vs. Mississippi State prediction: Week 3

LSU -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Mississippi State is lucky not to be 1-1 entering this game, as it was outgained by 124 yards and lost the time of possession battle by five minutes in its overtime win against Arizona. The Bulldogs were victorious mainly because they finished plus-four in turnover margin, but their new-look identity on offense still needs time to gel, not a good thing entering a matchup with the Tigers.

The Bulldogs are in their first year under offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay, who's looking to instill a balanced run and pass attack that was so successful at Appalachian State. However, it looked like the Bulldogs were too committed to the run against Arizona, rushing 39 times compared to 17 pass plays and averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.

Mississippi State needs more offensive ingenuity against an LSU team with a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. Jayden Daniels became the fifth SEC QB in the last 20 seasons with 2,900 passing yards and 800 rushing yards per season. Daniels looks to attack a Bulldogs' defense that returns just four starters from a unit that ranked in the top 40 in EPA/Play Allowed and Success Rate Allowed last year.

However, the Tigers should have a significant advantage in the trenches after their offensive line led college football in average line yards last season. In addition, defensive tackle Maason Smith is one of the sport's best run-stoppers and is in his second game back after being suspended for the season opener against Florida State for improper benefits.

This is only a three-star play, as LSU won just four of its last seven trips to Starkville by double digits. Even so, the Tigers' secondary is arguably the weakest part of the defense, returning only one starter. Don't expect Barbay’s new system to be aggressive or creative enough to exploit that.

Up To $1,500 Back In Bonus Bets

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,500
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!  

LSU vs. Mississippi State best odds

BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
-9.5-9.5-9.5-9.5-9.5
-110-115-110-110-110

LSU backers have an array of options to place their wagers, as four of our best sports betting apps all agree with the standard -110 juice. FanDuel is a tad pricier at -115, which suggests it could be the first shop to go to -10 if the betting splits dictate such a move.  

LSU vs. Mississippi State odds

LSU vs. Mississippi State odds analysis

Last Sunday, the Tigers opened as 8.5-point favorites and reached -10 briefly at multiple shops (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars). However, every time the line got to -10, Mississippi State backers quickly weighed in, as no book was at -10 for more than a couple of hours. The line movement from -8.5 to -9.5 is surprising, considering the Tigers received just 9% of point spread wagers. 

Much like the point spread, the total is also up a point, and all of our best sports betting sites agree from the change to an opening number of 53.5 to 54.5. The line at Caesars fluctuated between 53 and 53.5 for a while before a steady stream of Over support drove the line up. Meanwhile, FanDuel had the craziest line history, reaching a high of 58.5 early Sunday afternoon before the total came down 4 points.   

LSU vs. Mississippi State game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 16 at noon ET
  • Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 84 degrees, 18% chance of precipitation, 6-mph SSE wind

LSU-Mississippi State prediction made Wednesday, 9/13/23 at 1:01 p.m. ET.

Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is coming soon!

Kentucky sports betting will launch Sept. 28 so get pre-launch offers before it's too late! Don't miss out on Kentucky sportsbook promos or the best Kentucky sports betting apps!

21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

College football betting odds pages

CFP National Championship OddsSEC OddsBig 12 Odds
Heisman Trophy OddsBig Ten OddsPac-12 Odds
College Football Playoff OddsMountain West OddsACC Odds

Check out our best college football betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”