Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Thanksgiving
There's even more significance this year during the Old Man River Rivalry Game, the annual clash between Memphis and Tulane.
Both the Tigers and Green Wave boast identical 9-2 records, and Tulane is surging while sitting 16th in the College Football Playoff odds.
Our Memphis vs. Tulane prediction dives deeper on a Green Wave team that's won eight straight games and is also undefeated in conference play. However, the Tigers are strong too while posting a 6-1 record in their last seven matchups, and they're 5-2 against AAC opponents.
Strap in for kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN Thursday night, with Tulane as the host from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Memphis vs. Tulane prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Tulane -13.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Darian Mensah Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Memphis vs. Tulane ATS prediction: Thanksgiving
Tulane to cover the spread: -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: Tulane -13.5 (-110 via Caesars) | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Memphis vs. Tulane opening odds:
- Memphis: +12.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
- Tulane: -12.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
Ride the wave
Tulane has been on an absolute tear since late September and is 9-2 against the spread in 2024. The Green Wave benefit from home-field advantage and have only lost once at Yulman Stadium when Kansas State forced a fumble and returned it for the go-ahead touchdown late.
Green Wave running back Makhi Hughes is a workhorse, totaling 234 carries and averaging 5.5 yards per attempt while boasting 1,291 rushing yards and 17 total touchdowns. Hughes should enjoy plenty of success against Memphis’ run defense, which has allowed 5.3 yards per carry or more to Navy, North Texas, and Rice.
Our Gabe Henderson thinks Hughes could light up the scoreboard as part of his Memphis vs. Tulane player prop bet odds and touchdown picks.
Meanwhile, Memphis is 5-6 ATS and 1-2 straight up in conference road games.
Yes, -13.5 is a significant point spread, but Tulane has recorded two-plus touchdown wins in six of its last seven games. The Green Wave’s 10th-ranked scoring defense that's allowing 17 points per game will contain the Tigers' offense, while Hughes will churn out production to control the time of possession.
One good defense
There’s only one good defense in the Old Man River Rivalry, and it belongs to Tulane. The Green Wave have held three straight opponents without a passing touchdown, and they're allowing under a 56% completion rate.
Tulane has produced a plus-13 turnover margin, and Memphis has thrown an interception in three of its past four games played. The Green Wave have limited their past three opponents to nine total points, and they've been keeping AAC rushing attacks under 3.0 YPC in four of seven matchups.
Memphis will need to create explosive plays to keep up with Tulane, and that will inevitably lead to a turnover or quick drives without a score. The Tigers suffered an eight-point defeat to UTSA in early November, and they only beat Rice and Charlotte by 12 combined points.
Navy hung 56 points on Memphis, while Tulane shut out the Midshipmen 35-0 in Week 13.
Memphis vs. Tulane best bet
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Darian Mensah Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Tulane QB Darian Mensah hasn't needed to be a high-volume passer often in 2024 due to the team's ability to create early leads and its effectiveness when establishing the run. However, Mensah now gets a great opportunity to throw for multiple touchdowns against the Tigers’ secondary on Thursday night.
Memphis has allowed four different AAC quarterbacks to finish with two-plus passing touchdowns this season. Mensah has thrown two-plus touchdowns in six of Tulane’s 11 games, including three of their last four matchups.
Mensah's efficiency
Mensah’s efficiency as a passer trumps his low volume, and Tulane is frequently in the red zone. We saw Mensah only go 10-for-14 passing for 138 yards during Tulane’s 35-0 win over Navy. Yet he still threw a pair of one-yard touchdown passes to his tight end and running back late in the fourth quarter.
This may not look like a good bet right away, especially if Hughes earns most of the red-zone touches to build an early lead. But Mensah’s efficiency and accuracy as a passer will be on display during certain points of this rivalry game.
At -120 odds from our best sportsbooks with Mensah drawing a favorable matchup against Memphis’ pass defense, expect Tulane’s signal-caller to be aggressive throughout this game. There will be extra motivation with Tulane’s ability to potentially qualify for a College Football Playoff berth in the inaugural 12-team format.
Completing 65.9% of his pass attempts and throwing 18 touchdown tosses despite only recording 229 attempts is a testament to Mensah’s efficiency. He’ll operate well within the pocket to deliver at least two touchdown passes against Memphis on Thanksgiving night to cash one of your college football Week 14 predictions.
Memphis vs. Tulane odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Memphis vs. Tulane live odds
Memphis vs. Tulane opening odds:
- Memphis: +14.5 (-105)
- Tulane: -14.5 (-115)
Memphis vs. Tulane odds movement
The spread has moved slightly since opening with the Green Wave as a 14.5-point favorite, though notably through the key number of 14. Tulane is now commonly sitting at -13.5 or -13 through our best sports betting sites.
The total has gone down a few ticks too after starting at 55.5. It now rests mostly at 54.
Memphis vs. Tulane game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 28
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Yulman Stadium (Tulane)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 61 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph N
- Favorite: Tulane -13.5 (-110 via Caesars)
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