Miami vs. California Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 6
The California Golden Bears host their first game as an ACC member when the No. 8 Miami Hurricanes pay a visit to California Memorial Stadium on Saturday night. Miami enters sitting seventh in the college football championship odds.
- ESPN College GameDay is making its first appearance on Cal’s campus
- Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward is climbing up the Heisman Trophy odds leaderboard
- Something has to give, as Miami is one of five teams undefeated to the Over (5-0), while California is one of seven teams with an undefeated Under record (4-0)
Our Miami vs. California prediction expects the home team to receive a boost of energy based on the ramifications of this game, leading to covering the spread.
Best Miami vs. California picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: California +10.5 (-105 via Caesars) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Cam Ward anytime touchdown scorer (+180 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Miami vs. California against the spread prediction: Week 6
California to cover the spread: +10.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami vs. California opening odds:
- Miami: -12.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- California: +12.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
This spread has moved two points in the Golden Bears’ favor since opening at 12.5 through most of our best sports betting sites (it was as high as -13 at DraftKings and Caesars). However, there's still value on the underdogs as long as the spread is +10 or higher.
Unchartered territory for Miami
It was bound to happen when conferences expanded so much, but the ACC expansion opened up opportunities for opponents and road trips that teams like the Hurricanes simply aren’t used to making.
Miami hasn't played a game in the mountain or pacific time zones since a 2008 loss to California, and it last won a true West Coast road game in 1994.
And while the Hurricanes benefit from an extra day of rest after playing last Friday, the Golden Bears are coming off a bye. Bears head coach Justin Wilcox's team has covered seven of its 12 games during his tenure since 2017 coming off extended rest.
California’s stingy and opportunistic defense
Though California’s six-game regular-season winning streak was snapped with a Week 4 loss at Florida State, it held the Seminoles to 14 points. The Golden Bears’ run of limiting opponents to 14 or fewer points in the first four games of the season is their longest since a six-game streak spanning the 1967 and 1968 seasons.
California also boasts an opportunistic defense, and it leads the country in interceptions while ranking in the top 10 nationally in takeaways and turnover margin. To top it off, the Golden Bears rank in the top 30 in several defensive categories, including scoring defense, rushing defense, passing efficiency defense, and first downs allowed.
The Golden Bears have logged at least one takeaway in 39 of their last 42 games. The school has also been cleaning its mistakes up offensively, with just three turnovers this season after committing the fourth-most (28) last year.
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with a 10.5-point spread, but Caesars is the only one offering odds better than the standard -110 juice. A $10 winning wager at its -105 odds would pay out $19.52 as part of our college football Week 6 predictions.
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Miami vs. California prop pick for Week 6
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Cam Ward anytime touchdown scorer (+180) ⭐⭐⭐
Cal’s defense has allowed no more than two touchdowns in a game this season, but Miami’s team total of 33.5 suggests it should find the end zone plenty.
The Hurricanes' offensive line was abysmal in pass protection against Virginia Tech last week, as Ward was pressured on 21 of his 38 pass attempts. Ward’s season rushing total of 146 is lower than his 167 scramble yards based on losing yardage via sacks. But that speaks to how often Ward has needed to use his legs to escape pressure.
Ward has registered a rushing touchdown in two of his last four games, which makes FanDuel’s +180 odds a great value compared to the 40% implied probability based on DraftKings’ +150 price.
Our $10 wager at FanDuel would net $18 in profit if Ward scores with his legs.
Best odds: +180 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 35.71%
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Miami vs. California odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Miami vs. California game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 5
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: California Memorial Stadium (Berkeley, Calif.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 81 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph W
- Favorite: Miami (-400 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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