Miami vs. Louisville Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 8
Two ACC contenders meet in an early noon kickoff on Saturday as the Louisville Cardinals host the Miami Hurricanes.
- Miami is 6-0 for the first time since 2017 and has already earned bowl eligibility
- Louisville won at Miami for the first time in school history last season
- These two teams rank in the top four in the ACC championship odds
Our Miami vs. Louisville prediction, part of our college football Week 8 predictions, expects the Cardinals to stay within five points as the Hurricanes’ preparation for this game was compromised last week.
Best Miami vs. Louisville picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Louisville +5 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Cam Ward Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami vs. Louisville against the spread prediction: Week 8
Louisville to cover the spread: +5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Miami vs. Louisville opening odds:
- Miami: -4.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
- Louisville: +4.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Louisville has the offense to hang with Miami
Much of the talk surrounding this game is about Miami’s offense (led by Heisman Trophy odds hopeful Cam Ward), which leads the nation in total yards per game (583.8), passing yards per game (400), and scoring (47.7 points per game).
However, Louisville averages 36.2 points per game, and that, combined with a defense that allows fewer than 20 points per game, has the Cardinals ranked in the top 31 in each category.
Miami has struggled with ACC opponents
Miami rolled to a 4-0 record against non-conference opponents (Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State, and South Florida), beating them by an average score of 52-10.
But it had to come from behind against two inferior ACC opponents, as it trailed Virginia Tech (at home) and California by double digits in the fourth quarter.
The Hurricanes’ struggles in the last two games are mostly pinned on the defense, as the offense averaged 38.5 points and 541.5 yards.
The defense underachieved by 15 points per game in the two conference games, per SP+. That is concerning since the Hokies and Golden Bears rank 44th or worse in Offensive SP+.
Louisville’s familiarity with Mario Cristobal
In terms of preparation, Louisville has some inside intel into Miami head coach Mario Cristobal’s ways. Cardinals quarterback Tyler Shough and running back Don Chaney played for Cristobal at Oregon and Miami, respectively, before transferring to Miami.
Meanwhile, Miami spent last week on a bye, but Hurricane Milton impacted its preparation.
Louisville has lowered to a 4.5-point underdog at several of our top sports betting sites, but Caesars remains one of the only shops where one can back the underdog at the standard -110 juice.
A $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Miami vs. Louisville best bet
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Cam Ward Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Louisville is trying to become just the second team to hold Ward to two or fewer passing touchdowns. The optimistic view is that California just did that in Miami’s last game despite Ward attempting a season-high 53 passes, 15 more than his previous high.
Louisville got an underrated piece of its defense back last week with the return of cornerback Quincy Riley from a nearly month-long absence. Riley promptly broke up two passes, adding to a defense that ranks in the top 40 in EPA per play allowed.
The O/U for this game is between 61 and 61.5 at our best sports betting sites. And while Miami is one of four remaining teams that is undefeated to the Over, 65.4% of the 127 games that kicked off with totals of 60-plus points this season have cashed the Under.
This four-star play follows that trend of lower-scoring games in contests with high point totals. A $10 winning wager at bet365’s -125 odds would net $8 in profits.
Our Rob Paul expects Ward to still put up a solid yardage total as part of our college football Week 8 expert picks.
Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%
Miami vs. Louisville odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Miami vs. Louisville game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 19
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, Ky.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 72 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph SE
- Favorite: Miami -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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