Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 14
The Ohio State Buckeyes would clinch their spot in the Big Ten Championship with a win in “The Game” on Saturday against the Michigan Wolverines. The Buckeyes enter as both the Big Ten championship odds favorites and the college football championship odds front-runner.
- Ohio State won its 30th straight game against then-No. 5 Indiana last week, the longest streak against a single opponent in Big Ten history
- Michigan leads the all-time series against Ohio State 61-51-6, and it enters this clash on a three-game winning streak against Ohio State
- The 19.5 point spread is the largest in this rivalry since 2014
Our Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction expects the Buckeyes to exact revenge for the last three years of defeat in a massive victory over a Michigan squad that's been struggling to earn bowl eligibility this year.
Kickoff from “The Horseshoe” at Ohio Stadium is set for noon E.T. on Saturday, airing on FOX.
Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Ohio State -19.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Will Howard to throw Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+188 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Michigan vs. Ohio State ATS prediction: Week 14
Ohio State to cover the spread: -19.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
Terms and conditions apply.
Ohio State’s red-zone success
It's easier to cover a significant spread when a team's offense is successful in the red zone while limiting the opponent's touchdowns.
Ohio State posted an FBS-best 87% red-zone touchdown percentage prior to last week’s dominant 38-15 win over Indiana.
The Buckeyes only scored a touchdown on four of six red-zone possessions against the Hoosiers. But it's hard to fault them for one of those failed trips, as they were aggressive and stopped on a 4th-and-1 attempt on Indiana’s 2-yard line.
Meanwhile, Ohio State’s defense entered last week allowing 23 red-zone trips, and the team had held opponents to just five field goals and seven touchdowns over that span. The 30% red zone touchdown rate allowed was also the best among FBS teams.
Ohio State’s offensive line held up amid injuries
Ohio State received devastating news that it lost starting center Seth McLaughlin for the season to a torn Achilles.
The Buckeyes played against Indiana with their fifth different offensive line combination of the season, which included Donovon Jackson making his fourth start at left tackle this year.
The team's offensive line held up well nonetheless, paving the way for a respectable 4.0 yards per carry average. Will Howard also wasn't sacked and looked comfortable in the pocket, completing 22-of-26 pass attempts for a season-best 84.6 completion percentage.
Michigan won’t keep up offensively
It's difficult to envision Michigan’s offense keeping up in this game, as the Wolverines rank 84th in offensive SP+.
Ohio State sits first overall in defensive SP+, and a pass defense that was allowing just a 68.1% completion percentage improved upon that mark last week.
The Buckeyes held Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke to 8-of-18 passing, and he entered the game with a 71.8% pass completion rate.
The spread has come down from a high of -21 earlier in the week. But it also moved as much as three points against Ohio State last week before the Indiana matchup, and the Buckeyes easily covered in a 23-point win as 10.5-point favorites.
DraftKings is alone among our best sportsbooks while offering a line lower than 20 points. A $10 winning wager through its -110 odds would pay out $19.09 for one of your college football Week 14 predictions.
The Wolverines' likely offensive struggles are why I also went with the Under in my Michigan vs. Ohio State early picks.
Michigan vs. Ohio State best bet
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Will Howard to throw Over 2.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +188 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 34.72%
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Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day isn't opposed to playing for style points, as evidenced by him going for a touchdown with 35 seconds left last week in what could have been a kneel-down situation.
Will Howard’s passing total for Saturday is 251.5 yards, and he threw for three touchdowns in the only game when the signal-caller has cleared that total in the team's last five outings.
Howard has thrown three-plus touchdown passes in three of eight conference games. But he's registered multiple touchdown tosses in nine straight contests, including every Big Ten affair this year. He enters as a deep long shot in the Heisman Trophy odds.
Day knows the strength of the Wolverines' defense is in the trenches. Michigan’s defense entered last week ranked in the top 50 in rush success and line yards. However, the unit was 83rd in pass success and 87th in PFF’s coverage grade.
This is a three-star play, as I expect Ohio State will challenge Michigan early and often with its aerial attack, all while generating momentum for a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.
The alternate line of +188 at FanDuel for Howard to throw three-plus touchdowns trumps the value of the +165 odds found at both DraftKings and bet365.
Shane Jackson is also backing Howard in his Michigan vs. Ohio State player prop bet odds and touchdown picks.
Michigan vs. Ohio State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Michigan vs. Ohio State live odds
Michigan vs. Ohio State opening odds:
- Michigan: +20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Ohio State: -20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Michigan vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 30
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 32 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph WSW
- Favorite: Ohio State -20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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