Navy vs. Notre Dame Week 10 Picks: Offenses Show Up

Can the Midshipmen's triple-option offense give the Fighting Irish fits? Find out with our Week 10 Navy and Notre Dame picks.

The Navy Midshipmen ended a three-game losing streak with its 20-17 road win against Tulsa, which they entered as +325 underdogs on the moneyline. Three of Navy’s last four losses have been by one possession, and it is 5-1 against the spread in its previous six games. The Under has cashed in Navy’s last four games overall.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Their last five wins were by an average of 14 points and the Over has cashed in two of their previous three contests.

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 10 matchup between Navy and Notre Dame (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Navy vs. Notre Dame Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 6, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: NBCLocation: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, INWeather: 51 degrees, mostly sunny

Navy vs. Notre Dame Odds Analysis

This line has huge variance at many sportsbooks around the country. While most books have settled in at -20.5 or -21, 888sport is one of the outliers that currently has a spread of Notre Dame -23.5. The line has moved in Navy’s favor at most books by at least 1.5 points since opening.

The Over/Under is much less volatile, though many books have set the total at 46.5.

Navy vs. Notre Dame Betting Picks

Navy +20.5 (-110) (?)Over 47 (-110) (?????)

SEE MORE: Ohio State vs. Nebraska Week 10 Picks

Navy vs. Notre Dame Betting Predictions

Navy +20.5 (-110)

Navy (2-6 straight up) should be highly motivated as it needs to win its final four games to become bowl eligible. The Midshipmen played precisely their style of game against Tulsa, riding their triple-option to 302 total rushing yards and five yards per carry. It was the first time Navy had zero completions in a game since November 2018 at UCF.

The road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these teams, and the Midshipmen are 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 trips to South Bend. This is a one-star play for us, however, given that the value may be gone from the opening line.

We would like this number a lot more if we could get Navy at +21 or higher. But we are still backing the Midshipmen in our Navy and Notre Dame picks for Week 10.

Over 47 (-110)

We go from a one-star play to a five-star play, as we have the utmost confidence that this will be a high-scoring game. Notre Dame’s offense has kicked it into high gear the last three weeks, as it has averaged 35.7 points per game over the previous three contests. Though the Fighting Irish still sometimes use Tyler Buchner in some running packages, the team has settled on Jack Coan as its starting quarterback.

In addition, Notre Dame has gone to more of an up-tempo no-huddle offense, which has allowed Coan to get more of a rhythm.

Fighting Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman is familiar with Navy’s triple-option offense from his time at Cincinnati. His unit may be down its best player yet again, though, in safety Kyle Hamilton, who would have made a significant impact around the line of scrimmage in this game. The Fighting Irish were gashed for 554 yards last week by North Carolina and allowed 213 yards on the ground without Hamilton.

The Over has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams and is 7-3 in the last 10 at Notre Dame. Look for another high-scoring game between these two on Saturday.

SEE MORE: College Football Week 10 Parlay Picks

Picks made on 11/02/2021 at 7:03 a.m. ET.