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Clemson Tigers running back Phil Mafah runs with the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats as we look at our NC State vs. Clemson prediction.
Clemson Tigers running back Phil Mafah runs with the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/Imagn Images.

The Clemson Tigers are massive favorites as they host the NC State Wolfpack in an ACC matchup.

When making your NC State vs. Clemson prediction, it’s best to ignore what each of these teams did against SEC competition. The Tigers have only played one game since the Georgia Bulldogs blew them out in Week 1, but they notched a 46-point win during that matchup. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have allowed at least 20 points to far inferior opponents despite being 2-1.

The Tigers are favored by more than 18 points in this game. Will they be able to cover that spread? Or will the Wolfpack keep this closer than many expect?

Best NC State vs. Clemson picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Clemson -18.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. NC State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop pick: Phil Mafah Over 95.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NC State vs. Clemson against the spread prediction: Week 4

Clemson to cover the spread: -18.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NC State vs. Clemson opening odds:

This number has moved a lot since opening at 15.5 on Sunday. It climbed as high as 20.5, but then drifted down since then and never hit a full three touchdowns.

All of the best sports betting sites except FanDuel and BetMGM are listing this spread at 19. BetMGM is offering a better price for -18.5 than FanDuel, so that's the destination for this play.

Toothless Wolfpack

The media and public bettors can focus on the Tigers’ 34-3 loss to Georgia all they want, but the truly concerning team in this matchup is the Wolfpack.

They allowed the Western Carolina Catamounts to score 21 against them, and NC State only beat the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 30-20. They trailed during the latter game 17-6 at halftime.

The Wolfpack's defense is going to struggle against Cade Klubnik and running back Phil Mafah. And the Tigers have already lost a game this season, so it’s likely they run the score up to get some style points and improve their college football playoff odds.

Offensively, the Wolfpack have scored 30-plus points in two of their three games. But they scored just three points against the Tennessee Volunteers in their only true test. And the Wolfpack's touchdown in that contest was a defensive score.

The Tigers may shut the Wolfpack out. And it’s hard to imagine Clemson scoring fewer than 35 points given how bad the Wolfpack's defense has been.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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NC State vs. Clemson prop pick for Week 4

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Phil Mafah Over 95.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mafah ran the ball 10 times for 118 yards and one touchdown in the Tigers’ 66-20 win over the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Mafah was solid too during his first outing of the season, running for 59 yards and averaging 3.7 yards per carry against Georgia.

The Wolfpack don’t do anything right defensively. While you could consider taking Klubnik’s passing yards Over, we recommend this prop because the Tigers will likely lead for the entire game.

Mafah could be pulled in the fourth quarter, but there isn't any true competition in the backfield behind him. He's logged 26 carries this season, and the next most on the team is six.

Two of our best sportsbooks with this line are listing the number at 100.5, but those books are asking the same price as bet365 for the Over. Get in before this number hits triple digits as part of your college football Week 4 predictions.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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NC State vs. Clemson odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

NC State vs. Clemson game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 21
  • Kickoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
  • How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 86 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 4-mph wind
  • Favorite: Clemson (-950 via bet365)

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