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College Football Best Bets, Odds for Saturday Week 10: Is Air Force Overvalued Against Army?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 4, 2023 11:34 AM EDT • 5 min 12 sec read.

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College football best bets

There's added excitement leading into the Week 10 games due to the first College Football Playoff rankings coming on Tuesday, and we present our best bets for college football on Saturday, determined by the top NCAAF odds.

Georgia is ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, but Ohio State took the top spot in the first CFP rankings release based on the strength of its two top-15 wins against No. 11 Penn State and No. 15 Notre Dame. This marks the second time since 2020 that the AP and CFP rankings have different No. 1 teams.

Shakeups are expected in college football as the regular season progresses, with five matchups featuring ranked teams facing each other scheduled for this weekend, which could significantly impact the rankings and playoff picture.

To accompany all of our college football predictions for Week 10, here are our college football best bets for Saturday of Week 10 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football best bets for Saturday: Week 10

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Week 10 college football schedule and odds for Saturday

(Odds via Caesars)

College football predictions

Phil Mafah anytime touchdown vs. Notre Dame (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

This line has the potential to skyrocket based on the injury status surrounding fellow Clemson running back Will Shipley. Shipley is listed as day-to-day as he remains in concussion protocol, but this wager would become a much more confident four-star play if he is ruled out, as Mafah would dominate the backfield touches.

As it is, Mafah is still the preferred goal-line back, as he has doubled Shipley’s rushing touchdown total (six to three) despite 39 fewer carries. In addition, Mafah has averaged 1.4 more yards per carry than Shipley (6.0 to 4.6), and he is more of a bulldozer with 1.5 more yards per carry after contact than his teammate.

Many may be skeptical about Clemson being just a three-point home underdog against Notre Dame. Still, the Tigers outgained the last highly ranked team it played at home (Florida State) by 118 yards, and that Seminoles team has CFP aspirations.

We are taking advantage of this excellent number at bet365 (FanDuel and BetMGM are slightly higher at -135 and -145, respectively) before the line escalates if Shipley is ruled out.

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Taulia Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Penn State (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Maryland enters this game on a three-game losing streak, yet is still less than a double-digit underdog against a Penn State team that was lit up for 269 yards passing and three touchdowns by Indiana’s Brendan Sorsby, who had not thrown even a single touchdown in three of six games this season. Thus, the Terrapins are in an excellent buy-low spot as they can use the Hoosiers film to see how to attack a Nittany Lions defense that ranks second in the country in points per opportunity.

Tagovailoa struggled in his only game against a ranked opponent this year, completing a season-low 51.2% of his passes against Ohio State with one touchdown and two picks. However, his QBR in that game was still the highest of any game during the three-game losing streak, and the Terrapins' offensive line held up well in the Horseshoe, considering Tagovailoa was sacked just twice.

Tagovailoa has multiple passing touchdowns in four of five games, and with no disrespect to Penn State’s defense, four of the Nittany Lions’ five conference opponents have ranked in the bottom half of the league in points per game. They are about to get a much more stern test from a Maryland offense that is one of three Big Ten teams averaging better than 32.5 points per game.

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Though all of our best sportsbooks offer plus-money odds for this wager, the best value is at FanDuel, as all of our other best sports betting apps have +110 odds or shorter to back the Over. 

USC Over 37 vs. Washington (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Washington has not looked right since its high-profile home win against Oregon, beating Arizona State and Stanford, whose combined record is 4-12, by nine or fewer points each. The Huskies’ downgrade in performance is heavily tied to defensive injuries at many key spots, as Tuli Letuligasenoa on the defensive line is just as big of an injury as the three key contributors they are missing at safety. Without them, Washington allowed nearly 500 yards of total offense to a Stanford team that ranks 10th out of 12 Pac-12 teams in terms of yards per game and scoring.

While USC head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Caleb Williams are 3-7 as a duo against ranked teams dating back to their days at Oklahoma, the Over has also cashed in eight of USC’s last nine games against AP-ranked opponents. The Trojans have also been one of the most profitable Over teams in the country, with an 8-1 O/U record this season, and we expect them to come close to or exceed their 45.9 points per game average in this top 25 tilt.

The best value for this wager is found through bet365, as it offers -105 odds to back the Over of 37, while FanDuel and DraftKings are slightly higher at 37.5 and charge as high as -113 odds to back the Over.

Army +18.5 vs. Air Force (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Any time we can catch as many as 18.5 points in a game with a projected total of 31.5, we will jump at the opportunity. Given how few possessions there are typically in games involving service academies, backing underdogs of two-plus touchdowns has been profitable, as those teams have covered the spread 63.6% of the time (42-24-2) since 2005.

Air Force is generating a lot of buzz as it is 8-0 for the first time since 1985 and would set a school record for consecutive victories (14) with a win over Army. However, the Falcons have also played the 131st-ranked strength of schedule to this point, and quarterback Zac Larrier’s knee injury is lowering the ceiling for the offense, as he has averaged 2.6 yards per carry or worse in back-to-back games.

There is no difference in terms of value at any of our best sports betting sites, but we would still play this number down to +17.5 if the line does change.

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College football best bets made 11/2/2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET.

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”