College Football Week 14 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
It's the final week of the regular season, and several of the sports' top rivalry games are taking place. Our college football Week 14 picks against the spread focus on three games that could impact the College Football Playoff.
- Both South Carolina and Clemson are just barely alive in the college football championship odds race as they battle it out in the Palmetto Bowl
- Former ACC member SMU plays former Pac-12 member California in an ACC game that will impact the Mustangs' College Football Playoff odds
- Once a Heisman Trophy odds contender, Avery Johnson leads Kansas State against Iowa State in a matchup that will have major ramifications on the Big 12 Championship Game
Our Week 14 college football predictions aren't lacking for AP Top 25 matchups this week with so many teams still pushing to make the College Football Playoff.
College football ATS picks Week 14: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis vs. Tulane | Memphis (+14) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oregon State vs. Boise State | Oregon State (+20.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oklahoma State vs. Colorado | Colorado (-16.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami (Ohio) vs. Bowling Green | Bowling Green (-2) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss | Ole Miss (-25.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Georgia Tech vs. Georgia | Georgia Tech (+19.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Michigan vs. Ohio State | Ohio State (-20.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt (+10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| South Carolina vs. Clemson | South Carolina (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Notre Dame vs. USC | Notre Dame (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Auburn vs. Alabama | Alabama (-11.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami vs. Syracuse | Miami (-10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| California vs. SMU | SMU (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arizona State vs. Arizona | Arizona (+9.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Florida vs. Florida State | Florida State (+15) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oklahoma vs. LSU | Oklahoma (+6) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Washington vs. Oregon | Oregon (-19) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas vs. Texas A&M | Texas (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kansas State vs. Iowa State | Kansas State (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Houston vs. BYU | BYU (-13) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
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South Carolina (+2.5) vs. Clemson
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
This is easily one of the most important games of Week 14. Both the Gamecocks and Tigers have a chance at making the College Football Playoff if they win, and a few other contenders lose.
While Dabo Swinney's program came into the season with championship expectations, they've generally disappointed in major games (2-4 ATS since October). And South Carolina is the best team Clemson has faced since losing to Georgia in Week 1.
With a defense that's 14th in SP+, the Gamecocks will put all kinds of pressure on Cade Klubnik to make plays. Meanwhile, South Carolina's offense is finally gelling with LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders and should get after a Clemson defense that's outside the top 20 in both EPA per rush and dropback.
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SMU (-13.5) vs. California
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
While SMU has already locked up a spot in the ACC Championship against either Clemson or Miami, the Mustangs have something to play for on Saturday. If SMU can beat Cal in explosive fashion, it will only further bolster its CFP resume.
That's why I expect Rhett Lashlee to let his offense run wild on Cal. The Golden Bears are just 84th in EPA per rush on defense this season, and Brashard Smith has SMU sitting seventh in SP+ on offense and fourth in EPA per rush.
That's not the only mismatch here, though, with Cal outside the top 50 in SP+ on offense and taking on an SMU defense that's top 25 in both EPA per rush and dropback.
Justin Wilcox's team has failed to cover in two straight games as a double-digit underdog, and if it does again, a $10 bet on SMU pays a $9.26 profit.
Kansas State (+2.5) vs. Iowa State
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
All Iowa State has to do is win and the Cyclones will be in the Big 12 Championship. Lose, and chaos could unfold in a conference that somehow still has nine teams vying for a spot in the conference title.
One such team is Kansas State, which is poised to play spoiler in Ames on Saturday night. The Wildcats may be 8-3, but they're still the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 by SP+ thanks to being so well-rounded.
With Johnson at QB and DJ Giddens at running back, Kansas State should take advantage of a Cyclones defense that's just 37th in EPA per rush and has allowed 29.6 points per game during its 3-2 stretch.
Plus, the Iowa State offense has been iffy all year and ranks 40th in SP+, and this is a large reason why the Cyclones are 1-4 ATS since mid-October. If they fail to cover again, a $10 bet on K-State pays a $9.80 profit.
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