College Football Week 9 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
While the slate isn't as loaded as in weeks past, our Week 9 picks against the spread focus on three teams vying for a College Football Playoff spot.
- Heisman Trophy odds favorite Ashton Jeanty leads Boise State against UNLV in arguably the best Group of Five game of the season
- Coming off a last-second win, BYU is climbing the College Football Playoff odds in a wide-open Big 12 ahead of its game with UCF
- Despite losing to BYU earlier this season, Kansas State has the shortest college football championship odds in the Big 12 as it heads into the Sunflower Showdown
There may not be as many AP Top 25 matchups this week, but Week 9 college football predictions focus on a handful of games you won't want to miss.
College football ATS picks Week 9: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (-6) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Boise State vs. UNLV | Boise State (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rutgers vs. USC | Rutgers (+14.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Nebraska vs. Ohio State | Nebraska (+25.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Notre Dame vs. Navy | Notre Dame (-13) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Washington vs. Indiana | Indiana (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss | Oklahoma (+20) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tulane vs. North Texas | North Texas (+7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Illinois vs. Oregon | Illinois (+21.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| BYU vs. UCF | BYU (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Missouri vs. Alabama | Missouri (+13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas Tech vs. TCU | Texas Tech (+7) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oregon State vs. California | Oregon State (+9.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas vs. Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt (+18.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Florida State vs. Miami | Miami (-21) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Penn State vs. Wisconsin | Penn State (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| LSU vs. Texas A&M | LSU (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kansas vs. Kansas State | Kansas State (-11) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| SMU vs. Duke | Duke (+12) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cincinnati vs. Colorado | Cincinnati (+5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
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Boise State (-3.5) vs. UNLV
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
The two favorites by the Mountain West Championship odds, both of these programs are on the shortlist of G5 teams that could earn the fifth automatic bid for the College Football Playoff.
While UNLV has looked strong since losing to Syracuse, the Rebels haven't faced a talent like Jeanty. He has the Broncos ranked first in EPA per rush and he leads the nation in pretty much every rushing category.
Jeanty should be able to do enough damage against a UNLV defense that's just 96th in SP+ for the Broncos to win in a game that will likely become a shootout.
Boise State has covered in two of its last three games, and if it does again, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
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BYU (-1.5) vs. UCF
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%
Both of these teams are coming off insane Week 8 games, with BYU beating Oklahoma State on a touchdown with 10 seconds left and UCF losing to Iowa State on a touchdown with 30 seconds left.
They're also trending in different directions with BYU overachieving behind an offense and defense that both rank top 35 in SP+. And UCF has been a massive disappointment due to an offense and defense ranked outside of the top 40 in SP+.
Cougars QB Jake Retzlaff has been on a tear and should expose a UCF defense that's just 75th in EPA per dropback. It's going to be hard for the Knights to keep up with how well BYU's defense is playing - top 20 in both EPA per rush and dropback.
BYU is 6-1 ATS this season, and if they can cover this spread, a $10 bet pays a $9.43 profit.
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Kansas State (-10.5) vs. Kansas
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
The Sunflower Showdown was supposed to be an instant classic this year. Instead, Kansas has been one of the worst teams in the Power 4.
The Jayhawks offense has struggled with turnovers - Jalon Daniels has thrown more interceptions this season (8) than in the previous three seasons (7). And the defense has been even worse, ranking outside of the top 70 in EPA per rush and dropback.
Meanwhile, Kansas State has come alive with sophomore Avery Johnson at QB. The Wildcats are ninth in EPA per rush and 15th in EPA per dropback and should score in the high 30s on Kansas.
Just 1-6 ATS this season, the Jayhawks are among the worst in the country. If they fail to cover again, a $10 bet on the Wildcats pays a $9.09 profit.
College football picks roundup: Week 9
- College football Week 9 upset picks
- College football Week 9 expert picks
- College football Week 9 player props
- College football Week 9 best bets
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