College Football Player Props Week 12: Predictions & Picks
With the end of the regular season is in sight, here are our Week 12 college football player props to accompany Saturday’s action. Our college football picks are based on the best NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
It was another winning week for my college football player props in Week 11, going 4-2 and gaining plus-1.9 units between this column and our weekly expert picks piece. This brings my total to plus-5.64 units on the year with just two weeks remaining in the regular season.
While this column remains focused on the process, seeing the desired results over the last two weeks is satisfying. Let's keep it going by cashing more tickets in Week 12, shall we?
To accompany our college football player props and best bets for Saturday, here are our best college football player props for Week 12 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football player props for Week 12
- Kaden Prather Over 2.5 receptions (-106 via ESPN Bet) - Michigan vs. Maryland ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Chris Bell Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) - Louisville vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Dillon Gabriel Over 26.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) - Oklahoma vs. BYU ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌
- Cody Schrader Under 23.5 receiving yards (-114 via ESPN BET) - Florida vs. Missouri ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Joseph Griffin Jr. 25-plus receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) - Boston College vs. Pittsburgh ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
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College football player props for Saturday Week 12
Kaden Prather Over 2.5 receptions (-106 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sure, ESPN BET might be a carbon copy of Barstool Sportsbook. But that means we can still take advantage of some exclusive prop markets by shopping there. It's the only shop of our best sports betting sites to offer volume-related markets along with production-related props.
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This five-star play is a perfect example of that.
Kaden Prather has a receiving yardage prop of 31.5 across the board, which honestly might be a value based on our projection of 40-plus yards. With this brand-new betting provider, we can bet on Prather getting the workload instead of counting on production against one of the best pass defenses in the country.
Prather, who has 37 receptions on the season, has notched at least three catches in seven straight games. This includes a three-catch, 49-yard performance against another daunting defense in Ohio State. We are getting a discount in a game we project closer to four catches for the talented Maryland receiver.
Kaden Prather college football player prop made 11/17/2023 at 2:05 p.m. ET.
Chris Bell Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sophomore Chris Bell has started to become a bigger part of the Louisville offense. He now ranks third on the team in targets with 28, per PFF, but most of his damage has been done during the back half of the regular season.
It all started when he led the team in receiving with 85 yards in a 13-10 win over NC State. Counting that game, Bell has received 21 targets over the last six outings. Over that span, he has averaged 36.2 receiving yards per game and cleared this mark five times.
We project closer to 40 receiving yards for Bell in a road meeting with Miami. The Cardinals have mostly leaned on the ground game against a favorable slate of opponents, but this matchup figures to be more challenging and could lead to more passing work.
This same Over is juiced as much as -139 at Caesars, so take advantage of this discount at DraftKings.
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Chris Bell college football player prop made 11/17/2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Dillon Gabriel Over 26.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The QB run game is arguably the most underrated aspect of Oklahoma's high-flying offense. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has notched 11 touchdowns and 337 yards on 82 rushing attempts so far this season.
More than that, Gabriel has been asked to use his legs more since Big 12 play began. He has recorded double-digit rushing attempts in five of his seven conference matchups, clearing this yardage mark four different times during that stretch.
As long as Gabriel gets a similar volume on Saturday, we like his chances of finishing above this mark against a BYU defense surrendering five yards per rushing attempt. Our projections have Gabriel finishing comfortably above 30 yards, so take this offering from Caesars while you still can.
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Dillon Gabriel college football player prop made 11/17/2023 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Cody Schrader Under 23.5 receiving yards (-114 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's no secret that Missouri's Cody Schrader is playing as well as any running back in the country right now. He has produced three straight triple-digit rushing outputs against the likes of South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee. Over that span, he has 476 yards on 83 rushing attempts.
The best sportsbooks have listed Schrader's rushing prop at 115 yards ahead of a favorable home matchup against Florida. The Gators have struggled to stop the run, which means Schrader could have a field day.
It also means that Missouri might not have to air it out as much. As fate would have it, we are also getting an inflated line following Schrader's five-catch, 116-yard performance against Tennessee last weekend. Prior to that performance, Schrader hadn't cleared 15 receiving yards in any of his previous nine outings.
We project closer to 16 receiving yards in this one, giving us plenty of cushion on this Under. This line is priced at 23.5 across the board, but ESPN BET is offering -114 odds instead of the market value of -115.
Cody Schrader college football player prop made 11/17/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
College football player props for Thursday Week 12
Joseph Griffin Jr. 25-plus receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
The Boston College passing offense is a bit underrated by the market ahead of a favorable matchup. Eagles quarterback Thomas Castellanos has a passing yardage mark of about 171 against a Pittsburgh pass defense that is surrendering more than 200 yards per game. That's because Castellanos has failed to throw for more than 165 yards in three straight weeks.
While there is value in betting on a discounted passing line for Castellanos, I prefer betting on his No. 2 receiver in this matchup. Sophomore Joseph Griffin Jr. is averaging 30.7 receiving yards per game, clearing this mark in five of his last eight outings. But the underlying metrics suggest that Griffin is due for a bit more.
According to PFF, Griffin is second on the team in targets with 52. That is five behind Lewis Bond, who has a receiving prop of 40.5 yards in this game. The main difference is that Bond has caught 37 passes, while Griffin has snagged 24 of his targets. Bond has dropped one more pass than Griffin, illustrating there just might be some weird variance to explain the gap in production between these two receivers.
Even if Griffin's season continues the way it has, I'm projecting 35 receiving yards in this matchup. His Over/Under has been set at 25.5 across our best sports betting apps, with the Over juiced to -115 at most places. But you can take advantage of a slight discount by placing this bet through FanDuel's alternate market with a price of -110. DraftKings has a -130 value on 25-plus yards, while bet365 lists the same total at -120.
This alternate market likely won't last long, but it's an example of how sportsbooks are still making minor mistake even in Week 12. This prop would still be playable at 25.5 receiving yards based on our projection, but Boston College's entire passing offense might be worth buying in this matchup.
Our Mike Spector seems to agree with that sentiment, according to his top Boston College vs. Pittsburgh prediction.
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Joseph Griffin Jr. college football player prop made 11/15/2023 at 3:55 p.m. ET.
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