College Football Predictions, Best Bets & Odds Week 7
Last week in college football was the craziest of the season so far in terms of upsets and top-ranked teams losing, which brings even more excitement to our Week 7 college football predictions & best bets.
- Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri all lost in Week 6, marking the third time a single conference had three teams ranked in the AP top 10 lose on the same day in the AP Poll era
- Oregon is snapping a streak of 33 consecutive games as a home favorite when it is lined as an underdog against Ohio State
- USC is also a home underdog to Penn State, marking the first time since 1991 that Oregon and the Trojans are home ‘dogs on the same day.
Our Week 7 college football predictions call for the Under in a matchup that saw over 100 points scored last year and fades a quarterback who pulled off one of the season's biggest upsets last week.
Best college football bets for Week 7
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Diego Pavia Under 44.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) vs. Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐
- Will Howard longest pass completion Under 42.5 yards (-115 via bet365) vs. Oregon ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Buffalo +9.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Toledo ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ole Miss-LSU Under 62.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Week 7 college football odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- South Carolina (+21.5) vs. Alabama (-21.5), Saturday at noon ET
- Texas (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma (+14.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Penn State (-4.5) vs. USC (+4.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Stanford (+23.5) vs. Notre Dame (-23.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Oregon (+3.5), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Ole Miss (-3) vs. LSU (+3), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Kansas State (-3.5) vs. Colorado (+3.5), Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET
College football player props for Week 7
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Diego Pavia Under 44.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Vanderbilt quarterback Pavia was the toast of Nashville after leading the Commodores to their first-ever win over an AP No.1 team and helping to snap a 60-game losing streak to AP top-5 opponents.
Pavia’s 80% completion percentage was the highest of any quarterback against Alabama since 2010 (min. 20 attempts), and he was the first FBS player with two passing touchdowns and an 80% completion percentage against an AP No. 1 team since 2010.
He's run for 45-plus yards in four of five games this season, but it took 20 attempts (second-most of the season) to amass just 56 yards against the Crimson Tide. Pavia’s statistics were also helped by the fact that Vanderbilt ran 75 plays to Alabama’s 46 and that Alabama’s 17:52 time of possession was its least in a game in the last 30 seasons.
This is a three-star play because Vanderbilt should have fewer possessions against the slow-paced Kentucky offense. The Wildcats' front seven is also one of the best in the country, ranking in the top five in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
A $10 winning wager at bet365’s -115 odds would pay out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Will Howard longest pass completion Under 42.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is my most confident five-star play of the day, despite Howard completing at least one 43-yard pass in four of five games, including a 53-yard completion against Iowa last week - the most stingy pass defense he's faced.
Howard has arguably the best duo of receivers to throw to in the country in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. However, his PFF passing grade of 75.2 is still underwhelming, and they have him on record for as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws (five).
Now Howard and the Buckeyes face an elite Ducks secondary that ranks in the top three in coverage grade (per PFF) and the top 10 nationally in EPA/Pass Allowed. Oregon has allowed just one reception of more than 43 yards this year, and the following was its longest pass completion allowed in the first four games of the season: 23, 18, 21, 36.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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College football game predictions for Week 7
Buffalo + 9.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Toledo earned a lot of respect for the MAC with its 41-17 trouncing of an SEC school (Mississippi State) on the road. However, that win does not look as good now that the Bulldogs are 0-2 in the SEC, with their two losses by a combined 39 points.
This four-star play is mostly about the poor situational spot Toledo finds itself in. This is a noon road kickoff in one of the Rockets' furthest road trips, the week after beating a Miami (OH) team that it lost to in last year’s MAC Championship Game.
In addition, Toledo’s next two games on the road at Northern Illinois and at home against Bowling Green will go a long way in determining if it will earn a spot in the MAC Championship for the third straight year.
Buffalo is off a bye, Toledo struggles to run the football, and in a game with such a low total (44.5 points), getting almost 10 points to back the underdogs is invaluable.
I would not put anyone off waiting to see if any +10s pop up, but as of now, DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering less than the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs.
A $10 winning wager at the -108 odds would net $9.26 in profits.
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
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Ole Miss-LSU Under 62.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ole Miss beat LSU 55-49 last year, and the 104 combined points were tied for the third-most combined points in a non-overtime SEC game in conference history. However, I am using that recency bias to my advantage with this wager, as the Rebels have averaged just 23.5 points in their two SEC games thus far.
The Rebels’ struggles against Kentucky and South Carolina are heavily tied to poor success on third down, as they converted just 17.4% (4-of-23) of their third downs the last two weeks. In addition, LSU is off a bye week and has a new defensive coordinator (Blake Baker) to throw wrinkles at the high-powered Lane Kiffin offense.
I am taking advantage of this 62.5-point total now. It will likely plummet if the nation’s leading receiver - Ole Miss’ Tre Harris - is ultimately ruled out, as he is questionable with an ankle injury. Other sites with the best sportsbook promos have already moved to 62 or 61.5, so the slightly extra -115 juice at BetMGM is worth it to take advantage of the best number.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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College football betting odds pages
Here are our best college football betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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