College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Championship Week: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
The college football regular season is over, and nine conference championship games stand between us knowing how the College Football Playoff Bracket will shake out.
- Ohio State is coming off its largest upset at home since 1998, paving the way for Penn State’s spot in the Big Ten Championship
- Syracuse’s 21-point comeback was the largest in school history, and knocked Miami out of the ACC Championship
- All spreads for the nine championship games are within 5.5 points
Our college football upset picks had one of the most successful weeks of the season in Week 14, profiting 3.4 units. We are back to continue that momentum with our three best underdog plays for Championship Week.
College football upset picks: Championship Week
College football odds as of Wednesday. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Western Kentucky (+152 via Caesars) vs. Jacksonville State ⭐⭐⭐
- UNLV (+160 via bet365) vs. Boise State ⭐⭐
- Iowa State (+110 via BetMGM) vs. Arizona State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Championship Week upset predictions
College football picks made Wednesday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Western Kentucky (+152) ⭐⭐⭐
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State meet for the second consecutive week. The Hilltoppers’ 19-17 home win over the Gamecocks last week, coupled with Liberty’s loss, allowed Western Kentucky to clinch its spot in the CUSA title game.
The biggest argument for Jacksonville State to avenge last week’s loss is that it was not playing for much after having already clinched its spot in the championship game two weeks ago when it won its eighth straight game. The loss to Western Kentucky may have proved costly for the Jaguars, as starting quarterback Tyler Huff left the game with an injury and did not return.
This becomes a more confident four-star play if Huff is ruled out this week, as backup quarterback Logan Smothers has only attempted 19 passes this year. Jacksonville State would also miss Huff’s production in the running game, as the quarterback has 1,176 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns this season.
I am making this play at Caesars, which is the only one of the best college football betting sites offering better than +150 odds to back the road underdogs. A $10 winning wager at +152 odds would net $15.20 in profits.
Best odds: +152 via Caesars | Implied probability: 39.68%
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UNLV (+160) ⭐⭐
Our second upset pick is also a rematch of a game played earlier this season, as Boise State won 29-24 at UNLV in Week 9. The Broncos had an edge in that game coming off a bye week, while UNLV was playing on a short week following a trip to Oregon State the prior Saturday. As such, Boise State improved to 28-1 following bye weeks dating back to 2001.
The Rebels did arguably the best job of any opposing defense in containing Heisman Trophy odds candidate Ashton Jeanty. UNLV held the Broncos' running back to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry and 128 rushing yards (one yard more than his season-low).
UNLV had a lead at the end of the third quarter in that matchup, and two big penalties in the fourth quarter turned the tide late. Regardless, the Rebels will come into this Mountain West Championship with their confidence sky-high. There is much value to be had through bet365’s +160 odds, as FanDuel is on the low end of this market offering +146 moneyline odds (carrying a 40.65% implied probability).
Best odds: +160 via bet365 | Implied probability: 38.46%
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Iowa State (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Arizona State is one of four teams in the first year of a new conference that is favored in its conference championship game (joining Oregon, Texas, and SMU). Even though the Sun Devils are tied for an FBS-best 10-2 ATS record, I expect Iowa State will pull the outright upset.
Arizona State benefitted from a soft conference schedule that saw it avoid four of the other five teams to finish in the top six of the league. In the Sun Devils' only game against top-six competition in the Big 12, BYU totaled five more first downs, outgained them by 39 yards, and averaged 4.1 yards per rush compared to their 3.5 yards per carry average.
Iowa State is 4-1 in one-possession games this year, and head coach Matt Campbell can draw on the experience of coaching in this game in 2020. All of the best sports betting sites offer +105 or +110 odds to back the underdogs, and Iowa State backers can find +110 at BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365.
Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%
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