College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 10: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
Five college football teams ranked in the top 25 of last week’s AP poll barely avoided upsets with wins of five or fewer points, and underdogs will look for better success in a loaded Week 10 college football slate.
- Boise State, Ohio State, Texas, Kansas State, and SMU beat unranked opponents by five or fewer points, with four of those at least 9.5-point favorites before kickoff
- The only AP top-25 team involved in an upset last week was then-No. 11 BYU, which actually beat UCF outright 37-24 as a 2.5-point underdog
- Two undefeated teams (Penn State and Pittsburgh) are underdogs to one-loss teams
Our college football upset picks for Week 10, part of our college football Week 10 predictions, back two home underdogs getting less than a field goal on the point spread and an SEC road ‘dog that has brought respectability back to a program considered a laughing stock for years.
College football upset picks: Week 10
College football odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Purdue (+100 via BetMGM) vs. Northwestern ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Appalachian State (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Old Dominion ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Vanderbilt (+205 via Caesars) at Auburn ⭐⭐⭐
Week 10 upset predictions
College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Purdue (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Purdue has lost six consecutive games after opening the season with a win over Indiana State. And the last time we saw the Boilermakers in action, they were shut out 35-0 at home by Oregon two weeks ago, marking the Ducks’ first road shutout in over 30 seasons.
Despite all that, oddsmakers still respect the Boilermakers enough coming off a bye week to put up a fight against a Northwestern squad whose four conference losses have come by a combined 82 points.
Purdue has won two of its last five games after a bye week since 2021, and it played its best football of the year before the Oregon game when it was a two-point conversion away in overtime from beating then-No. 23 Illinois on the road.
The Boilermakers did that with quarterback Ryan Browne, who made his first career start after replacing the injured Hudson Card. At the very least, Northwestern has had to prepare for both quarterbacks as Card continues to recover from a concussion.
This is a three-star play, as Purdue has won two of the last three meetings with Northwestern. The Wildcats might also be the only team in the Big Ten with a worse offense than the Boilermakers, scoring just three points over the last two weeks.
While Purdue is an underdog across all our top sports betting sites, it is only seeing plus-money moneyline odds at BetMGM. With the +100 odds, any winning wager would net profits equal to the amount of one’s initial bet.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
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Appalachian State (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Appalachian State looks for its first winning streak of the season after snapping a three-game skid with last week’s 33-26 victory over Georgia State.
The Mountaineers are off to a disappointing 3-4 start (1-3 in the conference) after being picked to win the Sun Belt East Division in the preseason coaches poll.
Old Dominion was picked to finish sixth out of seven teams in that same poll, so, at least in terms of preseason projections, Appalachian State should not be a home underdog.
Joey Aguilar is coming off his best game in over a month. He recorded a 93.7 QBR and passed for 299 yards and a 3-0 TD-INT ratio, his first interception-free game since Week 2.
Old Dominion is a team full of momentum with three straight wins and a 4-1 record in its last five. And while the Monarchs defense entered their last game ranked in the top 20 in success rate against the run, Appalachian State’s strength is a passing attack that leads the conference with 294.0 yards per game.
DraftKings is the only one of our best college football betting sites offering better than +116 moneyline odds to back the underdogs. At +120 odds, a winning $10 wager would pay out $22.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%
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Vanderbilt (+205) ⭐⭐⭐
If one was looking at Vanderbilt’s results among its last five games (three-point losses to Missouri and Texas, wins over Alabama and Kentucky), it would be difficult to understand why the Commodores are this big of underdogs at Auburn.
While Vanderbilt had a softer opponent with Ball State mixed into that five-game stretch, it is the better team in this matchup, as long as it can overcome the mental and physical toll of its brutal schedule.
Vanderbilt performed admirably in a three-point loss to Texas. The Longhorns averaged 43.2 points per game and took six total sacks while averaging 1.3 turnovers per game over the first six weeks.
The Commodores held Texas to 27 points, while sacking the quarterback four times and forcing two turnovers.
Vanderbilt's 5-2 start before the loss to Texas was tied for its best start through seven games in the last 40 seasons. Meanwhile, Auburn has managed just 17.5 points per game in its two SEC home games (0-2 in those games).
This is a three-star play because of the new heights that quarterback Diego Pavia has lifted Vanderbilt to.
After the Alabama and Kentucky games, Pavia was the first SEC player with back-to-back wins, two passing touchdowns, an 80% completion percentage, and 50-plus rushing yards over the last 20 years.
There is a big 10-cent gap between Caesars’ +205 odds and the +195 odds at the low end of the market at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Best odds: +205 via Caesars | Implied probability: 32.79%
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College football picks roundup: Week 10
- College football Week 10 ATS picks
- College football Week 10 player props
- College football Week 10 expert picks
- College football Week 10 best bets
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