New Mexico State vs. UTEP Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 8: Can Aggies Cover as Road Favorites?
The UTEP Miners host the New Mexico State Aggies as part of Wednesday's college football doubleheader, as we're making our best New Mexico State-UTEP prediction based on the best college football odds.
The New Mexico State Aggies have recorded back-to-back wins, toppling the winless Sam Houston Bearkats 27-13 in Week 7. This success has elevated their season record to 4-3, with a 2-1 standing in Conference USA play. All four of the Aggies' wins came by at least a 10-point margin, while two of their losses also came by double-digits.
The UTEP Miners need to win four of their last five games to achieve bowl eligibility after starting the season 2-5. They took a step in the right direction with a 27-14 victory over the FIU Panthers in their most recent game, marking their first win against an FBS team this season.
As part of our college football predictions for Week 8, here are our best New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction: Week 8
New Mexico State -3 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Miners recorded a 20-13 victory when these teams met in El Paso last season, failing to cover as 17-point favorites. New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia was splitting time with Gavin Frakes in that affair, going just 7-for-20 passing for 100 yards in the loss. He's looked comfortable this year as the primary signal-caller and should have plenty of space to operate against a UTEP defense that gives up 177.1 rushing yards per game.
Pavia has recorded over 200 passing yards in five of seven games this season, a number he only hit twice in 12 games last year. He's also dangerous in the run game, going for 429 rushing yards this season on an average of 5.6 yards per carry.
Miners freshman QB Cade McConnell will start his second game of the campaign, but that brings uncertainty. He was very good against the Panthers last week, but his numbers were aided greatly by an 80-yard touchdown pass. We have often seen young quarterbacks come in and impress, then struggle once teams gameplan for them.
The Aggies allow 23.1 points per game, but they’ve held their last four opponents to 20 points or fewer. This is a tough matchup for the Miners, and they're unlikely to keep up, considering how the Aggies are playing.
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New Mexico State vs. UTEP best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | -3 | -3.5 | -3 | -3 |
| -110 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
BetMGM is offering -3.5 for a price of -105, and while that's the best price available, we don’t recommend taking the half-point above the key number. The Aggies are playing well, but they’re far from a sure thing on the road.
The other four major sportsbooks are listing the spread at -3. DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 offer a price of -110, so we’d bet there rather than FanDuel where the price is -115.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds
New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds analysis
The Miners opened as 1.5-point favorites, but with the expectation that McConnell will start Wednesday night, they’ve moved to 3 or 3.5-point underdogs at the best sports betting sites. The action continues to pour in on the Aggies despite the line movement.
The total opened at 49.5, but early action on the Under has driven the number down to anywhere from 48.5 to 47.5 on some of the best sports betting apps. Make sure you shop around for the best line on this one.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 18 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 61 degrees, 6-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction made 10/16/2023 at 2:23 p.m. ET.
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