North Texas vs. SMU Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: Will SMU’s Defense Continue Elite Play?
The Mean Green travel to play the Mustangs in the first game of Friday's college football doubleheader, and we offer our best North Texas vs. SMU prediction based on the best college football odds.
North Texas, with a current record of 3-6 and a 1-4 mark in the AAC, finds itself among four teams in the conference with either one or no wins in the league this season. Despite facing a tough run with three consecutive narrow defeats, the Mean Green stand out as one of only two teams in the AAC holding a losing record yet maintaining a positive point differential of plus-10, showcasing their competitive performances even in close losses.
Meanwhile, SMU (7-2, 5-0) is one of three undefeated teams in AAC play and is part of a trio of programs on at least a five-game winning streak within the conference. The Mustangs control their destiny for a spot in the inaugural AAC Championship Game. This is because the other two undefeated teams in the league, Tulane and UTSA, will face off in the final game of the regular season.
Check out our college football Week 11 predictions and best bets to accompany our best North Texas vs. SMU prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
North Texas vs. SMU prediction: Week 11
Under 68.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Most bettors will look at this matchup between the top two offenses in the AAC and assume a shootout will ensue. Granted, North Texas leads the conference in total offense, averaging 482.3 yards per game, while SMU is right behind at 464.6 yards per game and is the only team in the American to average 40 or more points per game. However, the last two meetings between these teams had projected 67 points or higher totals, and they stayed Under by an average of nearly 19 points per contest.
SMU is a rightful 17-point favorite, mainly because of how stifling its defense is. The Mustangs have allowed 13.4 points per game in conference play, and their 67 total points allowed in five games is 43 points lower than the next-best defense. SMU may have allowed 31 points in a road win against Rice, but its defense entered that game ranked in the top ten in FBS in Rush Success, Pass Success, and Quality Drives Allowed. That gaudy 31-point total is misleading, considering Rice still managed just 290 yards of total offense, and its first touchdown came on a special teams touchdown after a blocked punt.
North Texas is coming off a game where it allowed 37 points to UTSA after allowing 287 yards on the ground. However, even if it allows SMU its season-long scoring average of 40 points, we do not expect the Mean Green offense to break through for four touchdowns against the conference’s most stout defense.
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North Texas vs. SMU best odds
BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.5 | 67.5 | 68.5 | 68.5 | 68.5 |
| Under (-108) | Under (-105) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
We are not swayed by the cheaper price offered at DraftKings and FanDuel to back the Under at a lower number, as the best value is among BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 at the slightly higher total.
The Under is 8-2 in North Texas’ last 10 road games in November. We would not put anyone off laying the big spread with SMU, considering it is 7-1 ATS in its previous eight head-to-head meetings with North Texas.
North Texas vs. SMU odds
North Texas vs. SMU odds analysis
There has been differing line movement among our best sports betting apps with regard to the total, depending on what they had as their opening number. FanDuel came down two points from an opening total of 69.5, while BetMGM and Caesars have seen their totals increase from opening numbers of 67.5 and 67. DraftKings is the only shop that has seen some increase and decrease throughout the week, initially rising from 68 to 68.5 before plummeting to 67.5. The early wagers are skewed heavily (70/30) in support of the Over.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a point spread of SMU -16.5, as all others are in unison at -17. Any line movement has gone in the Mustangs’ direction, as BetMGM, DraftKings, and bet365 all opened with spreads of -15.5, while Caesars reached its current spread from an opening of -14.5. North Texas is 5-3 ATS, while SMU has covered five of its nine games.
North Texas vs. SMU game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 10 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 65 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph NNE
North Texas-SMU prediction made 11/7/2023 at 4:16 p.m. ET.
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