Notre Dame vs. Penn State Opening Odds, Early Picks & Predictions: 2025 Orange Bowl CFP Semifinal
Behind a dominant defensive performance, Notre Dame (13-1) punched its ticket to the College Football Playoff semifinal to take on Penn State (13-2) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami for the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The Orange Bowl opening odds at our college football betting sites have the Fighting Irish favored over a Nittany Lions squad that handled Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl to kick off the CFP quarterfinals, while Notre Dame took care of business against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Our Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds, early picks, and predictions expect these two college football championship odds contenders to both lean on their defenses in a low-scoring affair. We also broke down the other semifinal matchup with our Ohio State vs. Texas opening odds and early picks.
Orange Bowl opening odds: Notre Dame vs. Penn State CFP betting lines
Notre Dame vs. Penn State early odds via FanDuel for the 2025 Orange Bowl.
| Market | Notre Dame | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -118 | -102 |
| Total (O/U) | Over 44.5 (-115) | Under 44.5 (-105) |
Entering the College Football Playoff, neither of these programs were viewed as an overly trustworthy contender, but the Nittany Lions had the edge. However, with the Fighting Irish tossing Indiana aside and taking down Kirby Smart's Georgia program, Notre Dame is a slight favorite despite being the lower seed.
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My early Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction: Orange Bowl CFP semifinal
College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Under 48.5
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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These two teams are in the final four because they play dominant defense. In the quarterfinal, Penn State shut down Heisman Trophy odds runner-up Ashton Jeanty, while the Fighting Irish held the Bulldogs to just 296 total yards and 10 points.
Between these two loaded defenses and the inconsistent play of each team's offense, the Under is the best play with the early Orange Bowl odds. Notre Dame is holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game in the country (13.8) and ranked No. 4 in SP+ on defense after the first round of the CFP.
While QB Drew Allar is arguably the most talented passer left in the CFP, he's racked up three turnover-worthy plays between the Big Ten Championship and the first two rounds of the CFP, while his adjusted completion rate has been 63.6% or worse in all three outings, per PFF. And Notre Dame is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game in the nation (162.3).
Meanwhile, Penn State is in the top 10 in both EPA per rush and dropback on defense and should provide Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard with his biggest challenge yet. Leonard's inconsistency as a passer has been hidden by this Irish run game, but Tom Allen's defense is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (100.9).
With star defender Abdul Carter and his 58 pressures this season expected to be ready to roll against the Irish, Leonard could be under fire all game. This Penn State front seven held Jeanty to 104 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry, so it's built to slow Notre Dame.
Another reason to back this Under is that BetMGM has the game total strangely high at 48.5 when it's as low as 45.5 at our other best sports betting sites. If the Under hits, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds
See our college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every college football bowl game.
Moneyline
- Notre Dame best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
- Penn State best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%
There's not much difference across our best sports betting apps with the moneyline. These two teams are built very similarly and have looked strong in the CFP, so I wouldn't be shocked to see this line shorten slightly for Penn State and lengthen for the Irish.
Spread
- Notre Dame best odds: -1.5 (-110) via DraftKings
- Penn State best odds: +2 (-110) via Caesars
Given Penn State has had the easiest route to the semifinal of the four teams left in the CFP, it makes sense that it is the underdog to Notre Dame, especially with James Franklin's history in big games. That's why our best sportsbooks are all offering the Nittany Lions between +1.5 and +2.
But a part of me wonders if Notre Dame's win over Georgia is being overrated. The Irish were underdogs initially, and despite Carson Beck being confirmed out for the game, the line didn't see as much movement as it should have ... I suspect the public will bet this line further in the Irish's direction.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 45.5 (-110) via Caesars
- Under best odds: 48.5 (-110) via BetMGM
There's a massive discrepancy with the Orange Bowl Over/Under at our best live betting sites. While Caesars has it low at 45.5, BetMGM has it shockingly high at 48.5. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have it at 46.5, which is where I think it will ultimately land by next week at most of our best books.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State injuries to watch
Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.
Orange Bowl CFP semifinal game info
- When: Thursday, Jan. 9
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 64 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph NW
- Favorite: Notre Dame -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
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