Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 3
Notre Dame dropped from No. 5 to No. 18 in the AP poll after its worst loss in the Marcus Freeman era (16-14 to Northern Illinois) and one of the worst defeats in school history. The Fighting Irish now face a road test against a Purdue team that's rested off a bye week. Notre Dame will be trying to halt its slide in the college football championship odds.
Northern Illinois had been 0-14 all-time against top-10 opponents, and the school hadn't won over any ranked team since 2015 before upsetting the Fighting Irish. The loss was Notre Dame’s 38th to an unranked opponent as an AP top-10 team (the most in the AP Poll Era since 1936). The Fighting Irish also fell to 51-2 as a 25-plus-point favorite since 1978, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
Notre Dame isn't quite as big of a favorite in this matchup. But my Notre Dame vs. Purdue predictions analyze whether the Fighting Irish can pick themselves up after an embarrassing loss. Or can the Boilermakers stay within the number or pull off another upset as part of our college football Week 3 predictions?
Best Notre Dame vs. Purdue picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Purdue +10 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Mitchell Evans anytime touchdown scorer (+500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame vs. Purdue spread prediction: Week 3
Purdue to cover the spread: +10 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐
Usually I prefer to back the team that's coming off a bad loss while taking advantage of the public’s overreactions, figuring that oddsmakers would undervalue that squad the next week.
However, Purdue holds a massive advantage in this game after resting last week. It's 4-2 against the spread in games with a rest advantage over the last three seasons, and Notre Dame hasn't been good in games following bad losses recently.
Notre Dame’s poor ATS results Under Marcus Freeman
In Freeman’s first season the head coach of Notre Dame, his team lost at home 26-21 to Marshall as 20.5-point favorites. The next week, the Fighting Irish barely beat California 24-17, failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites.
That same year, Notre Dame lost 16-14 to Stanford as more than two-touchdown favorites, then failed to cover in a 44-21 win as 24.5-point favorites over UNLV the next week.
In the last three years, 28 teams have lost at home as favorites of 16-plus points, and the Fighting Irish are responsible for three of those instances. While this is a road game, it's still a double-digit point spread, which makes one wonder if Notre Dame is being overvalued yet again.
Notre Dame can’t get a passing attack going
Notre Dame is one of five FBS teams with zero passing touchdowns through two weeks, and one of the other four, Miami (Ohio), has only played one game. This is the Fighting Irish’s first season since 2007 with no passing touchdowns through two games, and that year they finished an abysmal 3-9.
Purdue allowed a Big Ten-worst 30.4 points per game and graded as the conference’s worst pass defense last year. But Notre Dame doesn't appear equipped to take advantage of that perceived witness right now.
Purdue can stay close with its running game
Purdue won four games last year. But it ran for 300-plus yards in two of its Big Ten wins over Minnesota and Northwestern.
Leading rusher Devin Mockobee is back, as well as four starting offensive linemen. That continuity was integral during the Boilermakers mauling Indiana State, a game featuring 248 rushing yards and 8.0 yards per carry in a season-opening 49-0 win.
This spread has dropped from as high as -12.5 to as low as -9.5 (at FanDuel) throughout the week. But as long as I can find a double-digit point spread, I'm backing the underdogs.
DraftKings is the preferred shop for this wager, as none of the other best sportsbooks are posting Purdue at +10 with less than the standard -110 juice. A winning $10 wager at DraftKings’ -108 odds would pay out $19.26.
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
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Notre Dame vs. Purdue player prop
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Mitchell Evans anytime touchdown scorer (+500) ⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans is still not quite back to the same level as last year prior to suffering a knee injury. He was a lock to play 60-plus snaps last campaign.
“He’s not a finished product yet," Freeman said prior to the Northern Illinois game. "He will continue to increase the volume of what we’re asking from him on Saturdays. He’s on a progression to becoming the best version of Mitch.”
Evans has logged just two catches on the season. But he'll grow to be a force once again in the offense, just as he was while totaling 66 yards after the catch and forcing six missed tackles in the win over a ranked Duke team last year, according to Pro Football Focus.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has likely been reminded often about the team’s zero passing touchdowns through two weeks. I expect that to be an emphasis this week against a Purdue team that allowed 17-plus points in every game last year.
Notre Dame’s team total for touchdowns is 3.5, so it should be finding the end zone plenty.
One would be hard-pressed to find a more significant difference in value for an anytime touchdown scorer wager among our best sports betting apps than with Evans’ odds this week.
Evans is getting as high as a 36.36% implied probability to find paydirt bet365’s +175 odds, but Caesars is offering insane value with its +500 odds. While Evans is most commonly sixth or seventh on the odds list among Fighting Irish players to score, I cannot pass up the value of potentially turning a $10 wager into $50 in profit.
Best odds: +500 via Caesars | Implied probability: 16.67%
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Notre Dame vs. Purdue odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 14
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Ind.)
- How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
- Weather: 83 degrees, 36% chance of precipitation, wind 11-mph ESE
- Favorite: Notre Dame (-375 via BetMGM)
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