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Ohio State vs. Penn State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 9: Can Nittany Lions Play Spoiler?

Henry John

Last Updated: October 29, 2022 5:57 AM EDT • 3 min 43 sec read.

Happy Valley will host a Big Ten matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions this weekend. Read on for our Ohio State-Penn State picks and predictions.

FOX’s Big Noon Saturday showcase game for Week 9 pits a pair of upper-echelon Big Ten teams against each other, as the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Happy Valley to face the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Undefeated and blowing out opponents on a weekly basis, Ohio State (4-2-1 ATS, 5-2 O/U) is widely viewed as the best team in the country coming into Saturday’s matchup. The Buckeyes obliterated Iowa last week and have now won six consecutive games by 29 or more points.

For Penn State (4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U), this game represents a second opportunity against a top-tier conference opponent. The first came on the road against Michigan two weeks ago and didn’t exactly go according to plan. The Nittany Lions were able to bounce back against a shorthanded Minnesota outfit last week.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 9 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 9, as well as our best bets.

Ohio State vs. Penn State Game Info

Date: Saturday, Oct. 29, noon ET
TV: FOX
Location: Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
Weather: 53 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 2-3-mph winds SE

Ohio State vs. Penn State Odds

Ohio State vs. Penn State Odds Analysis

The consensus line opened with Ohio State favored by 15 points. As of Saturday morning, that has ticked up to -15.5 with the Buckeyes drawing the support of 57% of the handle on 61% of the tickets.

The Over/Under has stayed at the consensus opening line of 60.5. The Over is the preferred side of bettors with 81% of the tickets accounting for 83% of the handle.

Ohio State vs. Penn State Picks

  • Spread: Ohio State -14.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
  • Total: Over 60.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
  • Prop: TreVeyon Henderson Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

Ohio State vs. Penn State ATS Pick

Ohio State -14.5 (-110) ★★★

When it comes to Ohio State’s dream of an undefeated regular season and a College Football Playoff berth, this week’s road trip is perhaps the toughest hurdle on the schedule. Yes, Michigan looms at the end of the year, but the Buckeyes will enjoy home-field advantage for this year’s edition of the rivalry.

Speaking of home-field advantage, it’s hard to argue that a noon kickoff for Saturday’s contest will be beneficial for Penn State. Credit to FOX’s “Big Noon Saturday” schtick for the poor scheduling spot. Other than TV revenue, it makes zero sense whatsoever why the Nittany Lions had their primetime white-out game last week against Minnesota and not against OSU. 

In four games against Big Ten opponents to date, Ohio State has posted winning margins of 31, 39, 29 and 44 points, respectively. Considering how the Nittany Lions failed to slow down Michigan two weeks ago, it’s hard to envision the defense having much success in stopping C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes' offense.

Going into that matchup with Michigan, PSU boasted a top-10 run defense. After the beatdown in Ann Arbor, and the ensuing matchup against Mohamed Ibrahim and Minnesota, the Lions now rank outside the top-50 in rushing yards allowed per game (142.0). The Buckeyes’ duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams should have a field day in this matchup.

Ohio State vs. Penn State O/U Pick

Over 60.5 (-110) ★★

In reality, Penn State has only played two games against competent offensive opponents this season. In those games, the Nittany Lions gave up 31 points to Purdue and 41 to Michigan. When it comes to pure talent, there isn’t a team in the country that matches what Ohio State brings to the table offensively.

Penn State’s inability to stop the run has only helped open things up through the air for opponents. Joey Porter may be a future NFL draftee, but he alone can’t contain the bevy of weapons Stroud has at his disposal. 

The Buckeyes’ passing attack only got more dangerous last week when Jaxon Smith-Njigba made his in-game return from injury. Head coach Ryan Day has confirmed that he will be available once again on Saturday. However, with the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming and Emeka Egbuka also in the mix, Ohio State could elect to have Smith-Njigba be a decoy more than anything.

Of course, the other side of this total wager concerns the matchup between Sean Clifford and the Penn State offense against the Buckeyes’ improved defense. New coordinator Jim Knowles has completely revitalized what was a very disappointing unit. That said, Penn State’s stable of running backs will be the toughest test OSU has faced to date.

Ohio State vs. Penn State Prop Pick

Henderson Over 79.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★★

As touched on previously, the Penn State run defense quickly turned into a pumpkin upon facing better competition. For as solid as the Michigan and Minnesota rushing attacks are, Ohio State’s backfield has the luxury of a potent passing attack to help open things up.

With this in mind, our game prop will be to play the Over on 79.5 rushing yards for OSU’s top back in Henderson. It’s worth noting that FanDuel’s prop line is a full five yards lower than where DraftKings has Henderson’s rushing total set. 

While bettors should expect Williams to also get touches, Henderson has been the lead back when Ohio State has been up against high-quality opponents. That trend figures to continue on Saturday.

Where to Bet on Ohio State vs. Penn State

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Ohio State vs. Penn State picks made 10/27/2022 at 2:52 p.m. ET

Related pages

Best Sportsbooks  |  Betting Sites  |  Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)  |  Ohio Sports Betting  |  Ohio Sportsbook Promos  |  Ohio Sports Betting Apps

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.