Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 10

This Saturday's clash between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions is the third of the season between two AP top-four teams, and it will go a long way toward determining who makes the Big Ten Championship game. 

• Penn State is one of three unbeaten teams left in the Big Ten (Oregon and Indiana are the others)
• Despite the Buckeyes having one loss, they have the second-best College Football Championship odds entering this week
• These teams have two of the three-shortest odds to win the Big Ten 

Our Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction agrees with the Buckeyes being road favorites of more than a field goal, as the Nittany Lions have struggled against top teams.

Kickoff for this heavyweight Big Ten clash is at noon E.T. from Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa.

As part of our college football Week 10 predictions, we also have Ohio State vs. Penn State player prop bets.  

Best Ohio State vs. Penn State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Ohio State -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Penn State ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown scorer (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Penn State against the spread prediction: Week 10

Ohio State to cover the spread: -3.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Penn State opening odds:

• Ohio State: -4 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Penn State: +4 (-110 via BetMGM)

Look past Penn State’s rush defense

Those who back Penn State with the points in this matchup will likely point to its rush defense, which ranks second nationally in Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards and allows 3.2 yards per carry (a factor in Rob Paul's Ohio State vs. Penn State early picks).

However, no team in the country has the tandem of running backs that Ohio State has, as TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are each tied for third nationally with 41 career touchdowns.

The two combined for 110 rushing yards on 21 carries in their stiffest road test against Oregon. 

Henderson’s big-play ability (he averaged 8.7 yards per carry in the game against the Ducks) opened up things for Will Howard and the passing game. In a raucous environment, Howard completed 80% of his passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns and finished with a 95.0 QBR.

The two-headed monster at running back is also a big reason why the Buckeyes are a perfect 27-for-27 in the red zone, making them one of three FBS teams with a 100% score percentage in red zone trips. Ohio State has paid off a whopping 25 of those trips with touchdowns.

Ohio State can play some defense too

The fact that the Buckeyes' 273 total yards allowed to Nebraska were their second-most in a game this season speaks volumes about how well Ohio State has played on that side of the ball.

Despite the 273 yards allowed, Ohio State still forced six punts, had 13 tackles for loss, and now ranks fourth nationally (and first in the Big Ten) with 11.9 points allowed per game.

Penn State’s injury concerns

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar was forced to leave last week’s game against Wisconsin with a lower-body injury. Head coach James Franklin alluded to Allar being a game-time decision after seeing what he saw from him in practice on Wednesday. 

Allar is the main reason the Nittany Lions rank fourth in EPA/Pass this season, but the offense would be compromised if he is out or less than 100 percent.

Ohio State’s dominance in this rivalry

James Franklin is 1-9 as Penn State head coach in 10 games against Ohio State, and the Buckeyes have won seven straight. The Buckeyes have won each of the last five meetings by eight-plus points, and Penn State is 0-6 SU in its last six games as home underdogs.

I am jumping on the -3.5, especially while paying lower than the standard -110 juice, in case the line ticks up if Allar is ruled out. Through BetMGM’s -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.52.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Ohio State vs. Penn State best bet

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Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown scorer (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is no doubt that this Penn State defense will pose one of the stiffest tests of Smith’s young career. But anytime I can get a player at -105 odds to score a touchdown after finding the endzone in seven straight games, I will pounce on that value.

Smith not only has eight receiving touchdowns through seven games, but he has also added one rushing. With a touchdown this week, he would tie Marvin Harrison Jr. (2023), Chris Olave (2021), and Terry Glenn (1995) with a touchdown in eight consecutive games.

This is a four-star play, as Smith has Will Howard, who ranks second nationally in passing efficiency, third in completion percentage, and 14th in passing touchdowns, throwing him the football.

Howard has an 81.6 completion percentage and a 9-2 TD-INT ratio over the last three games. He is also the first Buckeyes quarterback since Justin Fields with an 80% completion percentage or better in three consecutive games.

DraftKings is on the high end of this market with -110 anytime touchdown odds, so the best value is at FanDuel.

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Ohio State vs. Penn State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Ohio State vs. Penn State game info

• When: Saturday, Nov. 2
• Kickoff: noon ET
• Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
• How to watch: FOX
• Weather: 56 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
• Favorite: Ohio State -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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