Oklahoma vs. Kansas State College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Even if Bill Snyder is gone, the Kansas State Wildcats are still the right NCAAF pick for Saturday’s game with the Oklahoma Sooners.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday, October 02, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Oh noes, the poor Oklahoma Sooners. They’re only 4-0 to start the 2021 FBS campaign, so clearly, there’s something wrong in Norman. Why all the hand-wringing? Well, the Sooners are 1-3 ATS, barely eking out wins over Tulane (+31 away), Nebraska (+22.5 away), and West Virginia (+17.5 away).

That does not bode well for Saturday’s matchup with the Kansas State Wildcats, who are getting 10.5 points on the NCAAF odds board at Intertops as we go to press. This might be one of the easiest college football picks we’ve made in a while.

https://youtu.be/RAI-xTxOPec

I’m Drinking Manhattan

It might be. The Wildcats (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) were a money-printing machine when Bill Snyder was their head coach, especially in the stadium that bears his name; they went 16-7 ATS as home dogs during Snyder’s second tour of duty from 2009 to 2018. Since then? A tasty 5-1 ATS under Chris Klieman. The legend lives on.

https://twitter.com/KStateFB/status/1441910295631470598?s=20

Meanwhile, the Sooners are already moping about their quarterback situation. Spencer Rattler was a fashionable Heisman Trophy pick when the season started, but he’s down to +2200 at Sportsbook Review, with Ole Miss QB Matt Corral taking over the top spot at +130.

It’s not that Rattler (eight TDs, three INTs) is performing that poorly, but his quarterback rating is down from 172.6 to 152.5, and this is a team that has relied on the likes of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts in recent years. This will not do.

Quarterback Spencer Rattler #7 of the Oklahoma Sooners. Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

Nine Times

It’s possible that head coach Mike Riley and the Sooners are just victims of bad luck. They’re still marching into the red zone, but what used to be touchdowns has turned into field goals – nine of them, one short of the UTSA Roadrunners for No. 1 in the nation. Oklahoma still ranked fourth on the offensive F/+ charts at Football Outsiders heading into Week 4, and second on the SP+ charts at ESPN. We’ll see where they end up when those rankings get updated.

Wherever they land, the Sooners are still laying way too many points as 10.5-point road faves on the college football odds board. Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today only likes them to win by 6.68 points using his overall Rating formula, and just to make life more difficult for OU, Saturday’s forecast calls for rain over Manhattan. Not just Saturday, but all the way from Wednesday through Sunday.

The total for this matchup is 52.5 points at Sportsbook Review, the lowest we’ve seen in an Oklahoma game since 2017. Getting K-State a half-point above the magic number 10, in what figures to be a lower-scoring matchup? And at –105 juice? Yes, please.

NCAAF Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.