Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. Arkansas College Football Picks

The Outback Bowl from Tampa annually features a Big Ten school and an SEC opponent, and this New Year’s Day it’s Penn State vs. No. 21 Arkansas. Read on for our Penn State-Arkansas picks.

While New Year’s Day isn’t quite the bowl extravaganza it used to be with the College Football Playoff semifinals often separate from the holiday (including this season), it’s still one of the great sports days on the calendar. The five-game bowl schedule kicks off from Tampa with Penn State facing No. 21 Arkansas.

The Hogs are in the game for the first time, while the Nittany Lions are 3-1 in the Outback Bowl but haven’t played in Tampa since 2011. Surprisingly, these two Power 5 schools have never faced each other.

Here are my Penn State-Arkansas picks and predictions for the Outback Bowl (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Penn State vs. Arkansas Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 1, noon ETTV: ESPN2Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.Weather: Partly cloudy skies, high of 83, and 10-to-20 mph.

Penn State vs. Arkansas Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers maybe shouldn't bother opening bowl-game lines weeks in advance going forward, with opt-outs, injuries, and coaching changes altering the outlook of the game so much.

Neither of these schools has been immune, with the spread moving from Penn State -4 to now Arkansas -1. The total has risen from 45 to 48 because the Nittany Lions have taken some major defensive hits.

Penn State Betting Preview

Record: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 3-9 O/UKey Players: QB Sean Clifford, RB Keyvone Lee, WR Jahan Dotson, LB Eli Brooks, LB Brandon Smith, S Jaquan BriskerNotable Trend: The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS over their past six games vs. SEC schoolsBowl History: 30-18-2 all-time record; 2020: Didn’t play in bowl

Penn State's 30 bowl victories are tied for fifth nationally, and the program leads all Big Ten schools. The Nittany Lions’ 62.0 winning percentage in bowl games is No. 6 nationally among teams with 20-plus appearances. Penn State is also playing in its 26th New Year's Day Bowl and is 14-10-1 over the previous 25. Head coach James Franklin is 5-4 in bowl games dating back to his days at Vanderbilt.

Losses since the end of the regular season have hit few teams harder, as Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Brent Pry left for Virginia Tech, and defensive stars Brandon Smith, Ellis Brooks, and Jaquan Brisker opted out, along with All-American receiver Jahan Dotson.

PSU is 4-1 ATS over its past five neutral-site games.

Arkansas Betting Preview

Record: 8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 7-5 O/UKey Players: QB KJ Jefferson, RB Trelon Smith, WR Treylon Burks, DL Tre Williams, LB Bumper Pool, LB Grant Morgan, DB Montaric BrownNotable trend: 5-11-2 ATS over the school's last 18 nonconference gamesBowl History: 15-24-3 all-time record; 2020: Didn’t play in bowl

When Arkansas hired former Georgia offensive line coach Sam Pittman to be the team's head coach following a winless 2019 season, the move was widely met with derision because the Hogs were aiming higher. However, Pittman has now turned them into an eight-win team, the most for the program since 2011. The Razorbacks totaled eight wins over three seasons prior to Pittman’s arrival.

The Hogs were No. 8 in the AP Poll at one point this season, their highest ranking since 2011. Arkansas had beaten three ranked schools at the time in No. 15 Texas, No. 7 Texas A&M, and No. 17 Mississippi State, and the Razorbacks also pushed Alabama to the limit in a loss.

This will be Arkansas’ first New Year’s Day game since the 2008 Cotton Bowl, and the squad's first bowl appearance since the 2016 Belk Bowl. The Razorbacks are 0-4 all-time against Big Ten teams in bowl games. The Hogs have covered 16 of their past 24 contests overall.

Receiver Treylon Burks and defensive lineman Tre Williams are two key players who opted out of this game.

Penn State vs. Arkansas Picks

Arkansas (-120) ????Under 48 (-110) ???Alternate spread Penn State +7 (-255) ??Arkansas to win by 1-6 points (+350) ?First to score Arkansas (-115) ??

SEE ALSO: College Football Betting Odds, Lines, and Picks

Penn State vs. Arkansas Predictions

Arkansas (-120)

Why even bother with a one-point spread? Playing in a New Year’s Day bowl is huge for the Arkansas program Pittman is building. This game will absolutely matter for the Razorbacks. Will it for Penn State? With all the Nittany Lions' major opt-outs and much higher aspirations, I seriously doubt it.

The teams do share a common opponent this season. Auburn lost at then-No. 10 Penn State 28-20 on Sept. 18, and the Tigers won at then-No. 17 Arkansas 38-23 on Oct. 16.

A full-strength and motivated Penn State team would win this game. But the Nittany Lions losing arguably the team’s three best defensive players and one of the nation’s top receivers vastly overshadows Arkansas being without its best wideout and a decent defender, as the Hogs are more of a running team regardless.

Under 48 (-110)

Losing Dotson and Burks will factor in the most here. Burks notched 66 receptions for 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns this campaign. He ranked 11th in the nation in receiving touchdowns prior to bowl season, 25th in receiving yards, and 22nd in receiving yards per game (92.0). Dotson, meanwhile, recorded 91 receptions for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, ranking second in Penn State history in all three categories.

Defensively, Arkansas is the only SEC team with multiple players in the conference's top 10 in tackles per game this season: The awesomely named Bumper Pool at 10 per game, Grant Morgan with eight, and Hayden Henry at 7.8. Montaric Brown has logged five interceptions to lead the SEC and rank second nationally, in addition to five pass breakups.

The Under is 5-1 in Penn State’s past six games and 5-1 in Arkansas’ previous six neutral-site contests.

Alternate spread Penn State +7 (-255)

Even with all the Nittany Lions’ losses, they likely won't drop this game by more than seven points. PSU has won 13 consecutive regular-season games over nonconference opponents.

Arkansas to win by 1-6 points (+350)

It's not hard to envision the Hogs winning by a field goal.

Kicker Cam Little produced a great freshman season while hitting 19 of his 23 field-goal attempts and all 43 point-after tries. Little’s 19 made field goals are tied for first among FBS freshman kickers, and he tied for the fourth-most in a single season in team history. He's five successful kicks shy of matching Kendall Trainor’s record of 24 (1998).

First to score Arkansas (-115)

Penn State's shorthanded defense will struggle in the early going while dealing with key absences.

Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson has thrown for 2,578 yards and 21 touchdowns. He's third in the SEC in average yards per completion (14.0) and in yards per pass attempt (9.4). Jefferson also ranks fourth in the league and sixth among all FBS quarterbacks in passing efficiency. He's thrown for a touchdown in seven straight games and has recorded 170 consecutive completions without an interception.

Meanwhile, Arkansas is one of two FBS teams that boast four ball carriers with 450-plus rushing yards this season, and any one of Jefferson (554), Trelon Smith (592), Raheim Sanders (499), and Dominique Johnson (498) can punch the ball in early.

The Hogs were 8-1 when scoring first this year, and they're 7-1 when leading after the first quarter. Penn State is 1-2 when its opponent scores first.

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Penn State-Arkansas Picks made on 12/28/2021 at 7 p.m. ET.