Penn State vs. Boise State Prediction Tonight: CFP Fiesta Bowl Picks & Odds
Penn State must slow down Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty if it wants to beat Boise State in tonight's Fiesta Bowl. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Our Penn State vs. Boise State prediction for the CFP Fiesta Bowl expects the Nittany Lions' talent in the trenches to be the biggest difference. These picks are a part of our college bowl game predictions this week.
Boise State (+8500) has the longest college football championship odds of the remaining field. Our best college football betting sites list Penn State as an 11.5-point favorite in tonight's contest.
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Penn State vs. Boise State prediction & best pick: CFP Fiesta Bowl
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Penn State -11 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Boise State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Tyler Warren Over 76.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Penn State vs. Boise State ATS prediction
Penn State to cover the spread: -11 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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No team in the country has truly been able to slow down Jeanty this season, but Boise State hasn't had to face a defender as dominant as Abdul Carter. He's the key to shutting down the Broncos' offense, and if they can't score, they'll likely fall behind and face a game script that keeps them from feeding their star.
Penn State's defense ranks No. 6 in the nation in EPA per rush and is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (100.4). It's not just Carter, either, as the Nittany Lions' dominant front seven also features NFL talent in Kobe King, Zane Durant, and Dani Dennis-Sutton.
If that group can slow Jeanty, the pressure will be on Boise State QB Maddux Madsen to keep this game close. Unfortunately for him, Carter and Dennis-Sutton are among the best pass-rushing duos in college football and play in front of a loaded secondary led by Jaylen Reed, so keeping up with Penn State just doesn't seem plausible.
It's Allar time
While Drew Allar has already announced he's returning to Happy Valley next season, his play down the stretch had him climbing the 2025 NFL Draft odds. He's arguably the most talented QB left in the CFP, and Boise State could be in trouble.
Behind Allar, the Nittany Lions are No. 2 in EPA per dropback on offense, and this is a Boise State defense that has struggled throughout the season. The Broncos are just 47th in SP+ on defense and 53rd in EPA per dropback.
Slowing Allar's efficiency on top of having to deal with Warren and the one-two punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is a big ask for a Group of 5 team. If Penn State's talent shows out and covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Penn State vs. Boise State best pick
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Tyler Warren Over 76.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Only two non-quarterbacks/running backs finished in the top 10 of Heisman voting: winner Travis Hunter and Warren. The Mackey Award winner has been unstoppable all year and will likely be a top-20 pick in April.
So how is Boise State going to stop a tight end who put up 84 receiving yards on Oregon? Warren can win vertically, after the catch, or in 50/50 situations - he's top three in the country in yards per route run (2.81) and contested catches (11) among tight ends and top 20 in YAC per reception (6.8), per PFF.
His size and athleticism are going to be too much for a Boise State defense that allowed the third-most passing yards per game in the Mountain West (246.8). If Warren exceeds this total for the fourth time in six games, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
College Football Playoff expert picks & CFP predictions
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Penn State vs. Boise State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Penn State vs. Boise State live odds
Penn State vs. Boise State opening odds:
- Penn State: -10 (-110)
- Boise State: +10 (-110)
Penn State vs. Boise State odds movement
Penn State opened up as a near-double-digit favorite at BetMGM. The Nittany Lions were 9.5-point favorites after comfortably beating SMU in the College Football Playoff first round. Now, money has poured in on James Franklin's group, which is now an 11.5-point favorite.
Penn State vs. Boise State injuries
CFP Fiesta Bowl game info
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
College football betting odds pages
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