Purdue vs. Michigan State Prediction & Picks for Tonight: College Football Week 13
In this week's edition of FOX Friday Night Football, Michigan State hosts Purdue at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich. at 8 p.m. ET (FOX).
- Our Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction expects the Boilermakers to cover as 13.5-point road underdogs
- With a talented running back duo highlighted in our Purdue vs. Michigan State player props, the Boilermakers could make this a tough game for a Spartans team that's lost three straight
- The Boilermakers have yet to beat an FBS team this season, but they've taken two of their last five opponents to overtime
As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, we think this Big Ten clash will be closer than expected.
Purdue vs. Michigan State odds movement
Michigan State opened as a 13.5-point favorite with the line seeing minimal movement throughout the week. The Spartans are -14 as kickoff approaches.
Despite the large spread, Michigan State has 67% of the money on it covering with just 33% on Purdue. Meanwhile, 58% of the money is on the Under, with the game total hovering around 47.5.
Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Purdue +13.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Michigan State ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams Over 44.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Purdue vs. Michigan State ATS prediction: Week 13
Purdue to cover the spread: +13.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Are the Spartans good enough to dominate?
While the Boilermakers have been terrible this season, the Spartans haven’t been much better. They have just three wins over FBS competition, and they’ve lost six of their last seven games. They have just one win by more than six points and haven’t beaten anyone by more than 12.
The Boilermakers allow 214.2 rushing yards and 273.4 passing yards per game. Those totals rank them 120th and 121st in the nation, respectively. When you combine those two numbers, the Boilermakers allow the fourth-most yards per game.
While all this screams disaster for Purdue, the Spartans aren’t good enough offensively to take advantage of this matchup. They’re averaging just 334.2 yards per game, which ranks 104th in the nation. The Spartans have turned those yards into just 17.1 points per game, which ranks 125th in the country. Sure, that’s better than the Boilermakers, but not by much, as the Boilermakers are averaging 13.7 per contest.
The Boilermakers are allowing 43.2 points per game, second-most in the country, but the Spartans have scored more than 20 points in just two games all season. With this spread sitting at 13.5, give me the underdogs in a low-scoring game.
Purdue vs. Michigan State best bet
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Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams Over 44.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
The Spartans’ split backfield of Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter has been rather ineffective this season. While both running backs are averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry, neither has rushed for 500 yards yet, and they’ve combined for just five rushing touchdowns.
This is such a good matchup that at least one of them will have a big night. I’ll give the edge to Lynch-Adams, who leads the team in carries, rushing yards, and yards per carry. Lynch-Adams has only exceeded this number five times this season and once in his last six games. But the Boilermakers allow 5.6 yards per carry, so as long as Lynch-Adams gets nine carries, something he’s accomplished in eight of his 10 games, he’ll hit this Over.
Two of the three major sportsbooks offering this prop have the total set at 52.5. However, FanDuel has a total of just 44.5 yards. This is a massive disparity, and it’s likely only a matter of time before the total at FanDuel rises. Get in soon, especially since FanDuel is offering the best price.
Purdue vs. Michigan State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Purdue vs. Michigan State live odds
Purdue vs. Michigan State opening odds:
- Purdue +13.5 (-110)
- Michigan State -13.5 (-110)
Purdue vs. Michigan State game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 22
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Mich.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 43 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph NW
- Favorite: Michigan State -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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